Momentum for Gaza Ceasefire Builds

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On Tuesday, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, one of Netanyahu’s top aides, visited the White House to meet with U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Dermer was reportedly presented with plans for a 60-day truce between Hamas and Israel, which would be accompanied by a deal to bring 10 of the remaining 5o hostages (23 of whom the Israeli government believes to be alive) held by Hamas home, along with 15 bodies of hostages who have died.

The White House has been ramping up pressure on both sides to reach a deal in recent days. On Friday, at an event celebrating another peace deal—an accord between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda—Trump suggested that a ceasefire in Gaza could come as early as next week. “I think it’s close. I just spoke to some of the people involved,” he said. “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.” But he has not elaborated on the details of a potential ceasefire deal.

The president has also shown a willingness to single out Netanyahu in particular. “Make the deal in Gaza. Get the hostages back!” Trump exhorted Netanyahu on social media early Sunday morning. On Tuesday, the president told reporters that he planned to be “very firm” with the Israeli leader when he comes to Washington next week. 

In theory, a ceasefire would further the White House’s larger goals in the region. The Abraham Accords, a series of agreements from the first Trump administration, saw a number of Arab states normalize relations with Israel, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. The White House is seeking to expand the landmark accords, confirming last week that it asked the new government of Syria to sign on during a meeting earlier this year. “We have some really great countries in there right now, and I think we’re going to start loading them up, because Iran was the primary problem,” Trump told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on Sunday. 

Israel has alluded to the possibility of normalizing ties with its former adversaries. “We have an interest in adding countries, such as Syria and Lebanon, our neighbors, to the circle of peace and normalization, while safeguarding Israel’s essential and security interests,” said Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar Monday. But major Middle Eastern players, such as Saudi Arabia, have said they will not join the accords until the Palestinian issue is resolved to their satisfaction. 

Even as the Trump administration’s patience wears thin, Israeli leaders have resolved to push forward with another offensive in Gaza in an effort to force Hamas to agree to peace terms. It’s an extension of a recent shift in strategy by the IDF in its campaign against the Palestinian terrorist group, from more limited offensives to a determined effort to hold territory.

“What we’ve seen over the last several months has been more of a push by Israel to take and hold ground,” Raphael S. Cohen, the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program at the Rand Corporation’s Project Air Force, told TMD. “From a military perspective, if you do these sort of clearance operations and then these limited strikes, you’re always going to be stuck in a continuous game of whack-a-mole. So holding ground is really the only way you’re going to fully root out Hamas.” 

Yet stationing IDF troops in Gaza for longer periods also exposes them to greater risk from ambushes by Hamas and other militants. Just last week, seven IDF soldiers were killed in southern Gaza after a Hamas fighter threw a bomb inside their armored vehicle; another servicemember was killed by an explosive device in northern Gaza on Monday. The attacks brought the total number of IDF deaths for June to 20, so far the deadliest month of 2025 for Israeli forces. “This renewed offensive comes at the cost of blood and treasure,” said Cohen. 

The renewed offensive’s toll is already exacerbating existing tensions within Israeli politics and society. The IDF relies on an active-duty conscript army and reserve forces to provide most of its wartime fighting strength, but until this month, mandatory military service was restricted to Jewish Israelis of fighting age, along with Druze and Circassian men. Haredi, or ultra-Orthodox, Jews largely received exemptions from service, as have Israeli Arab citizens.

Following a protracted political and legal battle, the IDF is set to begin enforcing sanctions on Haredi draft dodgers this month, along with issuing call-up orders to some 54,000 yeshiva students. But the highly controversial effort, which ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties in the Knesset oppose for religious and cultural reasons, is for now unlikely to drastically alter which part of Israeli society bears the burden of the war effort. “You have a large part of the population that’s bearing an extremely heavy burden, and feeling that they are being asked to sacrifice while other parts of Israel are not,” Daniel Byman, the director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told TMD.

Aside from the danger and inconvenience of military service itself, Israeli citizens are also feeling the economic strain of the conflict. A massive drop-off in tourism, rising war debt, and losses to the workforce due to reserve call-ups and internal displacement have slowed growth and depressed business activity. 

Increasingly, Israelis want to see a resolution to the war. A poll conducted by the Israeli Walla News last week found that 67 percent of the Israeli public supports signing a ceasefire deal to secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas. Last week, tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Tel Aviv to call for an end to the war and the return of hostages (a weekly occurrence that was put on hold during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran). 

The question is whether the Netanyahu government will be willing to accept terms that result in the survival of Hamas as a political force. “The big sticking point, from the Israeli perspective, is what happens if Hamas offers to return the hostages on the condition that it will end the war and Hamas stays in power,” said Cohen. 

Byman agreed. “A lot depends on how much Israel is willing to bend,” he said. “Can Israel accept a group that slaughtered 1,200 of its citizens to still be politically active on its border? That’s a tough ask.”

Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have repeatedly said the war will only end with the administrative and military dismantling of Hamas. But in recent days, the prime minister has signaled there may be growing flexibility in how the Israeli government defines “defeat” for Hamas. “This victory opens up an opportunity for a dramatic expansion of the peace agreement,” Netanyahu said on Thursday, while discussing the recent Israeli strikes on Iran. “Alongside the release of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas, there is a window of opportunity here that must not be missed.”

On Tuesday night, it appeared that Netanyahu had taken a critical step toward a wider resolution of the conflict. “Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War. The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal,” wrote Trump on social media. “I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.” The White House did not provide any additional details, and Hamas has yet to respond. 

But if this week truly is a significant step toward ending a nearly two-year war and further integrating Israel in the Middle East, one of Trump’s fondest ambitions may be realized: a Nobel Peace Prize. At least, that’s the opinion of some Israelis. As one poster during last week’s protests in Tel Aviv read, “President Trump, end the crisis in Gaza! Nobel is waiting!”

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Reuters: Iran-Linked Hackers Threaten To Release Trump Aides’ Emails

Iran-linked hackers have threatened to disclose more emails stolen from U.S. President Donald Trump’s circle, after distributing a prior batch to the media ahead of the 2024 U.S. election.

In online chats with Reuters on Sunday and Monday, the hackers, who go by the pseudonym Robert, said they had roughly 100 gigabytes of emails from the accounts of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan, Trump adviser Roger Stone and porn star-turned-Trump antagonist Stormy Daniels.

Robert raised the possibility of selling the material but otherwise did not provide details of their plans. The hackers did not describe the content of the emails.

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi described the intrusion as “an unconscionable cyber-attack.”

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Let Us Know

Should Israel accept a deal that leaves Hamas in power?