There are a couple of good questions to ask about the political ramifications this year of the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022 and subsequent state-level efforts to expand or restrict access to elective abortions.

How much does the issue persuade voters and how much does it motivate voters?

For the first one, we want to know how many people who were already likely voters are being moved, in at least substantial part, by the issue to choose a different candidate. This one is tricky, because authentic “single issue” voters are rare. And if one is so intently focused on abortion, it seems unlikely that he or she was a persuadable voter to begin with.

What we’re really looking for are people who usually vote and typically have a partisan preference or are true toss-ups, but found abortion to be a tipping point to move them one way or another.