The Party Centrist Extinction Is Upon Us

What will become of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema?

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Sen. Joe Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leave the Senate Chamber on Wednesday, November 3, 2021, in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images)

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CNN just announced that Donald Trump will participate in a televised town hall for the network in New Hampshire next week. It is literally my job to watch this thing, so I will try to do so. But no promises because the question I’m waiting on isn’t going to be answered that night. Instead, I’ll have to wait about two days because that’s when we’ll get the ratings. 

If this thing is a ratings boon for CNN, it’s hard to imagine that a bunch of news organizations that are currently laying off employees aren’t going to see a quick way out of their misery. It’s going to be 2015 all over again, when Trump got $2 billion worth of free media attention—remember when there’d be an empty podium on the screen for 45 minutes?—because, to paraphrase the head of one network, he “may not be good for America, but [he’s] damn good for CBS.” But less accidental, less innocent. 

And let’s be real. It’s not going to take much. Biden is winning against Trump by 1 to 3 points in the best national polls we have. That’s within the margin of error. And that’s not even taking into account the Electoral College math problem that Democrats still have. Democrats keep acting like they have this thing in the bag because Trump got indicted? Because Trump says crazy stuff? Because Trump? 

This town hall could go very, very well for Trump. Not because he sounds presidential or has figured out how to save Social Security or beat China … but because a whole lot of people might tune in. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Gordy Eicher

    Totally unrelated to politics, but something you might enjoy, is an article in the May issue of Golf Digest. It is about a fellow from the south who became enamored with curling. I know you are busier than a one-armed paper hanger , but take a few minutes.

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    Andy Napoli

    Sarah, do you think it would help restore the parties if a law were passed to require all individual, corporate, and PAC contributions over $50 to be made out to a registered political party? It seems to me that a root cause of party weakness is that they're more bystanders in elections and fundraising today than leaders.

    Would such a law be constitutional?

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  3. Tom Johnson

    “The fact that Lisa Murkowski is still a senator is the exception that proves the rule—a famous last name combined with some fancy footwork (a write-in campaign in 2010 and the introduction of ranked choice voting in 2022) has allowed her to survive.)”

    It wasn’t ranked choice voting that saved her so much as the top-four nonpartisan primary that Alaska has adopted.

    I wish every state would follow suit with both of these reforms. Would keep a lot of extremists on the outs.

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  4. Mschuman18

    Arlen Specter (R-Pennsylvania)?!?!?!?

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      BWG

      Democrat from 1951 to 1965, Republican from 1965 to 2009, back to Democrat in 2009. Senator for Pennsylvania from 1981 to 2011. So he was a Republican for most of the time he was senator for Pennsylvania.

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    Kacosjg

    Sarah dear, there is no Democrat thinking that they have Biden’s victory in the bag. It’s not in Democrats DNA to think anything is in the bag; it’s why they are Democrats.

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      CP

      Let's go waaaaay back to the 2016 election, shall we? Never mind that they were wrong, but which candidate thought she had it in the bag? And which candidate was surprised he won?

      Further back, of course, there's Obama. You're forgetting about the Left's problem with smug.

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      1. Halvor

        The left has a problem with wanting to take the ball and go home. Sarah says we’d rather blame Republicans for the country’s problems. No, it’s worse. We’d rather see voters, especially center-voters, get what they deserve and get it good and hard. Imagine how much better for the left Trump II would be than Biden. Fortunately, Democrats care about the country. If all they wanted was power, they’ll vote for Trump-DeSantis.

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    2. Philip.R.M.Hunt

      It is projection. Republicans tend to be overconfident and believe their own BS. Democrats are plagued by self doubt and live in a state of perpetual handwringing anxiety.

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        Probably Wrong

        Is it at all possible that neither party is well characterized by a single broad stereotype, or does one party have to be the overconfident one while the other party has to be the underconfident one?

        Democrats are plenty capable of overconfidence and underconfidence, as are Republicans, because they are all people.

        But a priori, if you asked me to assess which group of people was most likely to make an error of overconfidence, I’d say it is the group telling themselves “we are always nervous when it’s really fine, we should be more confident”

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        1. Philip.R.M.Hunt

          There are always exceptions to any generalization, including this one.

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  6. James Gillespie

    I could see donors filling the gap left by state parties, with particular wealthy individuals supporting the campaign infrastructure of their favoured candidates. Peter Thiel's support for Blake Masters and J.D. Vance (without which neither would have likely won their primaries) is one example. It's not clear what this means for the centre in politics, though - donors want their candidates to win so have an incentive to push electability, but there are clearly examples to the contrary - e.g. Masters misjudged how badly the election-denial stuff would go down.

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  7. Kwinter

    The unpopular chart is a really good approximation of America's best senators. That it is is really depressing.

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      Probably Wrong

      You can take some comfort from the fact that Ted Cruz is also on that list

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    Marty

    No cannoli? No zabaglione? Sarah, how can you leave your faithful readers without dessert?

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      Trevor Reid

      I was expecting a tiramisu to top off the lasagna

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    SandyG

    It's important to note, as you have, that because of the EC, national polls are not predictive. The only polls that matter are the swing states. Biden won them with a total of 40K votes. We need more coverage of those polls.

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  10. Crs24

    Could a politician running for a major office just say, "I want to represent common sense. I want to be the voice for those who are weary of 'us or them'. I will work for common ground between disparate views because the extremes on either side are not viable options to the majority of citizens."
    Isn't this kind of what most of us want?
    Or, would this person be laughed off the podium?

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    1. Philip.R.M.Hunt

      Centrists are only viable if the state has open primaries and or instant run off voting. The closed primary first past the pole system promotes extremism.

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