The Sweep: A Focus on the Problem with Primaries
Neat Data Alert
FiveThirtyEight has put together a table to look at “senators with the best and worst statewide brands” by subtracting a state’s partisanship score from a senator’s net approval rating. Here’s the description:
The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isn’t the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. Because Massachusetts is so blue, that’s no big whoop in the Bay State — but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal.
I bet the results will surprise you … at least a little.
Redistricting Is a Wash
Laser-focused on the new maps, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman finds Republicans are on track to pick up two seats because of redistricting even though there are more “Biden-won” districts overall. Why? He says “the new Biden-won seats are so marginal and so many marginal Trump seats got *a lot* redder.” But the biggest change in the maps can be seen in the “decimation of competitive seats: On the current trajectory, only 33/435 seats will have voted for Trump/Biden by 5 pts or less, down from 51/435 seats today (-35%).”