The Sweep: In 2022, the GOP Question Is Trump vs. McCarthy

Plus: Who's likely to suffer in the midterms from the latest round of debt-ceiling chicken.

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Campaign Quick Hits

Will He or Won’t He: Sen. Chuck Grassley just announced that he’ll decide by Nov. 1 whether to run for an eighth term. Republicans are already defending three open seats—Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. Iowa and Wisconsin are still up in the air … for a few more weeks.

Redistricting Crystal Ball: Based on the latest census data and the proposed maps that some states have started to roll out, Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report now predicts that Republicans may net as few as “1-2 House seats from redistricting alone, down from 3-4 a few months ago.” Two seats probably won’t be the difference between a GOP and Democratic majority, but it could be!

The House in Danger for Democrats: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee—the national party apparatus that runs House races—is focusing on fewer races this year. According to Axios, ”Democrats are trying to unseat only about half as many Republican House members next year as they did in 2020, trimming their target list from 39 to 21.” More and more, Republicans look poised to take back the House—but the Senate is still leaning toward the Democrats.

Stop the Steal Spreads: At the national, official level, the Republican Party’s midterm strategy this cycle is all about the tried and true: outflanking the opposition by staying abreast of advances in election technology and keeping messaging laser-focused on the supposed failings of a Democratic administration. But while the Republican National Committee tries to tout its “data and digital boot camps” and national GOP leaders in Washington say that their party’s message will be all about how the Biden administration has “mismanaged the economy, mismanaged the border, mismanaged crime,” a different strategy is taking hold in the field. From Politico: 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “ Neither McCarthy nor McConnell were ever “Trump guys” to the hilt, and their continued leadership of the party will always be a threat to the permanence of Trumpism, keeping alive the hope of many Republican members of Congress that the former president’s continued role in the future of the party can be managed or contained.”

    McConnell, sure. I don’t know about McCarthy. Sure seems like a Trump guy to the hilt. He sucks up enough and went groveling to Mar a Lago back in the winter after he made the mistake of almost being honest about January 6th and Trump and the election.

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    Stephanie

    Regarding Schumer's "blunder" in the deal making to end the 2018 shutdown: I seem to recollect that it was widely regarded as Trump's "blunder" in rejecting a generous ($25 million) offer of "wall money" that was tied in with the Dreamers provision.

    Trump blew it, because he never got another opportunity like that. In fact, his whole shutdown maneuver, masterminded and whipped by the Fox News shadow cabinet, backfired on him because it didn't accomplish anything for him.

    By 2020 there had been so many other scandals that that shutdown never even figured as a campaign issue. But the bad press from what it did to government workers, and little clips like Wilbur Ross suggesting they could take out a short term loan, probably helped the Democrats in the midterms.

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    Jeff Greene

    McCarthy has never believed in any principle greater than the promotion of McCarthy, and I'm amused the space between his lips and Trump's buttocks is now great enough that some have now perceived them as mortal enemies. Just another sign of how far the Party has fallen.

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  4. DJ

    Mccarthy will continue feeding the pet alligator in his bathtub as part of his plan to get eaten last.

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    1. Sue Robinson

      Lol

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  5. James D

    Is there any thinking man or woman in America who would be even REMOTELY surprised by Trump throwing Kevin McCarthy under the bus in 2022, besides, of course, Kevin McCarthy himself?

    In the extremely unfortunate event that this iteration of the GOP should take back the House, the sole cherry on top will be watching Mr. McCarthy's dreams of Speakership crumble as Trump instantly discards him in favor of a truly loyal Trump ally.

    As we've seen time and time again with Trump, loyalty is a one-way street. It's borderline incomprehensible that some GOP pols still haven't figured this out. I am no fan of McConnell's conduct from late November through early February, but he at least understands that his relationship with Trump is now fundamentally adversarial. McCarthy? McCarthy must be a deeply stupid man.

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  6. R. James

    No tears for McCarthy, as the Trumpist revolution eats its own. Its like watching Robespierre being led off to the guillotine.

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    Stephanie

    I doubt the voters can understand all this legerdemain. The midterm issues will be culture war staples: the supposed increased crime rate, the supposed threat of inflation, the supposed threat of socialism, entrenched COVID issues.

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      Man-Eating Cow

      The threat of inflation isn't supposed.

      We may dodge it, but there is reasonable cause to consider it a threat.

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        Stephanie

        At this point, it's so theoretical (and the Fed isn't concerned about it) that bringing it up to voters is pure fear-mongering. Just a few months ago on this Comments page, someone who mainlines Fox News was in terror that the sky was falling because of the runaway inflation to come.

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          Man-Eating Cow

          It's not so theoretical. We are, in fact, seeing significant inflation in some sectors. We may disagree on how much this will spread to other sectors or how long it will last, but raising the concern is not fear-mongering.

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    Ohio Gas Hog

    In Ohio, is there any candidate on the Republican side that is worth supporting for the US Senate in 2022? I'm having a hard time finding one.

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      Angie

      Not that I know of....just Mandel and Vance...if Tim Ryan is running on the Dem side,, while it may be a useless vote, I will vote for him, he is kinda like Sherrod...moderate and pro labor

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  9. Avatar photo
    C C Writer

    Excerpts from 𝗟𝗶𝘇 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘆'𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 dated September 15 (or at least the one that goes to small donors out of state--and it included my first name in the body of the letter as well as in the PS, in which she thanked me for what I have already done to help):

    "As a stalwart conservative who reveres our Constitution, the rule of law, and transparency in government, I know that what happened on January 6th can never happen again, and we deserve answers about the events of that day so we can protect the foundations of our democracy. . . . Unfortunately, in the face of what we know now, some are still continuing to perpetuate dangerous rhetoric and outright lies."

    "Doing what's right is not always easy, and it can be lonely, but I don't know any other way. . . . I did not get into politics to make friends. I got into politics to serve our country and to make a difference."

    "Despite the onslaught of personal attacks, I will always stay above the fray and focused on doing right by the American people. I do not take cheap shots. I do not stoop to personal attacks. But I WILL call out bad policies and weak leadership and existential threats to our nation wherever and whenever these things arise."

    "Having experienced, principled conservatives in Congress is more important than ever given the Biden administration's many failures."

    Then she goes on to criticize the so-called infrastructure plan and the budget reconciliation proposal on the grounds of excessive taxation, massive spending on big government social programs, and addition to the national debt which will burden future generations.

    She does not mention anyone but Biden by name, not even Trump, but she does draw some important lines to characterize what's going on and suggest what and who really is the problem: "Not to overstate it, but this race could determine the fate of our party: are we on the side of principle or are we a party of blind faith to one man? One path leads to a strong America and one path drags our party--and our country--down." And also, "Next year's midterm election will determine if Americans want serious voices who will lead with principle and do what's right . . . or if they want flame throwers who think a viral tweet or sound bite is what elected officials are supposed to focus on." (You can easily fill in some names here.)

    "Because I am focused on leading and putting principle over partisan poliics, my colleagues on both sides of the aisle understand that I act in good faith and can build consensus at a time when it is needed. When things get tough, true Americans do not retreat, we work even harder."

    I don't have a scoring system for fundraising letters, but I think I can give this one a thumbs up for expertly threading the needle through a very tricky political landscape, and being positive about what she's for--defending our democracy and our country by championing conservative policies--while making a good case, even without naming names, that if you are for those things, you are going to want to support her, rather than the unserious people and those of blind faith to one man.



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      C C Writer

      I won't be offended if anyone finds this a TLDR message. But I think it is on topic and some might be interested in what she is saying to prospective small donors.

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        rlritt

        What's TLDR?

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        1. Sue Robinson

          Thanks for asking. I didn’t know either!

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          C C Writer

          Touche! And I'm the one who so often complains about overuse of initialisms.
          It means "Too Long, Didn't Read."

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            rlritt

            What? You got some place to be? 😁

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    Denise Cote

    I'm not feeling very charitable today. Unless and until God takes him out, Trump will continue to be the ingrown hair that's become infected and threatens the body that is the republican party with an ignominious end.

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