The Sweep: In 2022, the GOP Question Is Trump vs. McCarthy

Campaign Quick Hits

Will He or Won’t He: Sen. Chuck Grassley just announced that he’ll decide by Nov. 1 whether to run for an eighth term. Republicans are already defending three open seats—Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. Iowa and Wisconsin are still up in the air … for a few more weeks.

Redistricting Crystal Ball: Based on the latest census data and the proposed maps that some states have started to roll out, Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report now predicts that Republicans may net as few as “1-2 House seats from redistricting alone, down from 3-4 a few months ago.” Two seats probably won’t be the difference between a GOP and Democratic majority, but it could be!

The House in Danger for Democrats: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee—the national party apparatus that runs House races—is focusing on fewer races this year. According to Axios, ”Democrats are trying to unseat only about half as many Republican House members next year as they did in 2020, trimming their target list from 39 to 21.” More and more, Republicans look poised to take back the House—but the Senate is still leaning toward the Democrats.

Stop the Steal Spreads: At the national, official level, the Republican Party’s midterm strategy this cycle is all about the tried and true: outflanking the opposition by staying abreast of advances in election technology and keeping messaging laser-focused on the supposed failings of a Democratic administration. But while the Republican National Committee tries to tout its “data and digital boot camps” and national GOP leaders in Washington say that their party’s message will be all about how the Biden administration has “mismanaged the economy, mismanaged the border, mismanaged crime,” a different strategy is taking hold in the field. From Politico

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