The Sweep: Reading Between the Lines on Voter Registration

The numbers are helpful for political scientists to study voter trends over decades. For political operatives? Not so much.

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You’ve Got to be Kidding Me 

About That Education Gap

Race, gender … and now religion. Non-college educated minorities and women have been reliably shifting right, and we are seeing the same trend among Evangelical voters. What’s fascinating is that this isn’t an American phenomenon. It’s a Western democracy phenomenon, at least. Is it the rise of college graduates from a tiny minority to a sizable chunk of those populations? If so,  why didn’t we see something similar around high school education between the Civil War and WWII when graduation rates soared from 1 percent to 78 percent? Is it something about the uneven impact of the 2008 recession? But why would education be a better predictor than income? 

Let’s look at the shift among Evangelicals: 

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Comments (29)
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  1. Avatar photo
    Bill Dyer

    Re this: "It's very helpful for political scientists to study voter trends over decades. It’s not that helpful for campaign operatives who want to know who is going to win in a few months." I immediately flashed to "climate vs weather."

    Gosh, golly, y'all, this is a fine post, start to finish. Thank you, Ms. Fahlberg, Mr. Egger & Ms. Isgur. Carry on.

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  2. Avatar photo
    Rajeev

    Has there been any detailed data on people that register to vote but don't actually vote? I could see two categories the one we think of that just vote in presidential elections but also those that just register for other reasons. Voter registration cards used to be an easy alternative to passports/birth certificates to travel to Mexico. Registering to vote is also a requirement when trying to become a resident for in-state tuition. A big reason is that someone signs them up when they are on campus or out around town during election season. But they don't follow up and take the effort to vote.

    I'm sure there are other reasons but I was wondering is there any data about voter registration of unlikely voters that could provide noise to the analysis of voter registration trends?

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  3. Avatar photo
    Rajeev

    I don't think there's any real analog between fundraising and "shifting left" in senate races. The Democrats have very effective fundraising operations at the senate level as we saw in 2020. But their candidates in Montana, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Maine were the best candidates (even though they lost handily). Same with places like Arizona and Colorado. Hickenlooper and Kelly were phenomenal fundraisers but were skilled politicians that had massive crossover appeal.

    Same with the top 10 competitive senate races this year. Democrats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are more left but didn't move left much; that's who they were prior to campaign. Same with Georgia although Warnock has some centrist tendencies to match his more left credentials.

    Kelly, Cortez-Masto, Hassan and Bennett are incumbents in the top 10 competitive races (according to 538). None of them are to be confused with leftist showboating senators. In North Carolina and Ohio, Cheri Beasley and Tim Ryan are moving hard center trying to exclusively attract the center voters that they need to win. Same with Val Demings in Florida but that is no longer the purple state it used to be.

    Those are the top 10 according to 538 with 2 left-leaning democrats that were always that way (Wi/Pa). There's plenty of people that will move hard left in safe states like Patty Murray (a la Kirsten Gillibrand a decade ago) but Democrats did a masterful job of picking candidates this cycle. Conor Lamb probably would've been better than Fetterman but I can't say that for sure. Mandela Barnes might be more left than a typical Wisconsin voter but he's not some big city mayor or representative he won state wide as Lieutenant Governor.

    None of that means they keep the Senate but if they did it wrong they would've had no chance.

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  4. Avatar photo
    PJ

    I am going to enjoy watching and taking advantage of non-college educated republican voters.

    Meanwhile this gay atheist freedom loving individual is going to continue appearing to be entirely democrat. Ain't binary politics fun kids?

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  5. Avatar photo
    Phil H

    '“I don’t think we’ll ever really know” whether Biden’s win was legit, “because there were so many discrepancies.”'

    No, there wen't. It was all false because Trump couldn't accept that he lost. Biden was the clear winner.

    Anyone who peddles the "We will never know" line about 2020 continues to enable Trump and his MAGA base, and would be unworthy of receiving my vote.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Martin Hernandez

    In Ohio you can be registered (or switch affiliation) for a party based on picking a party primary ballot, to me that would mean you’re likely to have the most committed voters actually registered with a giant clump of unknowns that are unaffiliated. Tim Ryan would have an easier time here if he hadn’t publicly advocated abolishing the filibuster.

    As things stand, ‘24 looks bleak for Dems. Will they fund or promote a Trump candidacy like they have in these primaries? Barring him the Republican candidate, I can easily digest voting for DeSantis, N Haley, T Scott, hell even C Christie over the like of Pritzker or Newsome. The Dems bullpen is looking like the Reds’

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  7. Avatar photo
    Ms. SSM

    “ education replacing race in some of these states are a better predictor of voter behavior”

    I don’t understand this sentence. So the education of an Asian or Black voter tells you more about their vote then race? Or does this just apply to white voters? Because moving toward Republicans isn’t the same as republicans winning their vote. So if you know someone didn’t finish highschool you could predict their vote more then race seems inaccurate.

    As for registration I think I only ever vote in Republican primaries but I almost never vote for Republicans in general elections. Registrations seem like they mean little to me.

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  8. Diane Hansen

    I’m having a bit of trouble following your reasoning on Florida’s increase in Republican voters, Sarah. New residents are flocking to Florida in droves; while I know some come from red states, I would guess that some are Dem voters from blue states. It’s true that Republican voters are leaving blue states, but Is it possible that at least some of the change is due to Dem voters who have had enough bad blue state policy, and switched their party affiliation?

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  9. tobe berkovitz

    "but I’ve said before that small dollar donors can be a meaningful proxy for committed voters in a state. " Dive into finance records and see how many small contributions are from in state vs out of state.

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  10. Kmsinatra

    I feel heard. I'm the Romney- McMullen - Biden voter and the Main Line/ Philly suburb voter in Montgomery County that is shocked at how blue it has become (though I am stil registered R). Nailed it Sarah!

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    1. Avatar photo
      PJ

      Maybe it is not so much blue, but human.

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About Sarah Isgur

A staff writer for The Dispatch. With experience on three presidential campaigns and all three branches, she knows how decisions in Washington get made.
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About Andrew Egger

Andrew Egger is an associate editor for The Dispatch. He previously covered the White House and campaign politics for The Weekly Standard.
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About Audrey Fahlberg

Audrey is a reporter for The Dispatch covering Congress and campaigns. She was previously a Bartley Fellow at the Wall Street Journal and studied politics at the University of Virginia. Follow her on Twitter: @AudreyFahlberg.
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