Video: Six Months to the Election

Watch the video of our weekly livestreamed conversation.

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Steve Hayes and Jonathan Martin of Politico discuss a sweeping review of the state of play in the coming Trump/Biden rematch. Then, Kevin Williamson and Stehen Gutowski, founder of The Reload, join Steve to talk about Stephen’s piece exploring whether Donald Trump might turn on gun-rights supporters. Lastly, John McCormack and Grayson Logue discuss their reported pieces from the past week. 

On the Agenda:

  • Deciding factors leading up to the election
  • Campus protests
  • Veepstakes
  • Trump turning on NRA activists
  • TikTok divestments
  • Georgia protests

Show Notes:

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Comments (19)
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  1. Sarah

    I'm curious if anyone has data on lives saved by gun ownership? I am assuming many do use guns for self-defense and am curious if there is any reliable data that captures that aspect of gun ownership.

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    JustinC

    Is the podcast going to be fixed?

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  3. TresLeches

    Anybody know of a source that parses out the breakdown of rifle sales or ownership as Kevin discussed? I'm curious to see what the percentages are between semiautomatic and bolt action.

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    1. Sjrubert

      There are figures available from ATF, but IIRC, they are based on background checks and not reliable. There are definitely ATF statistics available based on quantity produced by licensed manufacturers, but they have similar (though much smaller) problems with their data sets.

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    2. Ingenero.lux

      I'm unsure - I looked because I was curious, but I don't know that there's a good source. I believe the background check system just distinguishes between handguns and long guns. Sales you might be able to find a source for - but ownership would be a pain. There are a lot of rifles out there - a lot a lot, and sales aren't tracked in a way that would make it easy to figure out how many guns there actually are. You could have one rifle change hands regularly at gun dealers, another that gets (legally) transferred between close family members or in private sales and has never been in a registered transaction in its existence (because there are a lot of old rifles that still work really well, too).

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      1. Sjrubert

        The background check is out of whack, even for sales, because there are a couple of states that use NICS for their CCW checks. Every year, everyone who has a carry permit has a NICS check run, whether they purchased or not.

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  4. Jacob Barger

    The podcast posted to The Skiff was titled correctly, but the audio was from the Dispatch Podcast episode interviewing Bob Costa.

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    Although it was a brief and perhaps fanciful moment, I was surprised to hear the panelists suggest, seemingly seriously, that Joe Biden ought to replace Kamala Harris.

    Having promised to pick a black woman for his running mate in 2020, he's well and truly stuck with her. He has nothing resembling good cause for dumping her other than her unpopularity, which, frankly, was already obvious in 2020. The price he'd pay now within his own party, in goodwill and destroyed hopes for recreating an Obama-like turnout, if he replaced her for 2024 would surely outweigh any gains he might make among voters who would suddenly embrace a Biden-Whoever ticket over a Biden-Harris ticket.

    I'm thinking his smarter move would be to promise to resign mid-term plus one day, to address the concern with his own likely inability to finish a four-year term, and to lean in, and to finish anointing her as his logical successor in an attempt to rekindle within his own party, and perhaps among independents, the enthusiasm he hoped to bring to his ticket with her as his running mate to begin with:

    "By the date on which I'm now promising to resign from office, January 21, 2027, Vice President Harris will be ready, and more than ready, to become President Harris, with all that means for our country's history — not just the first woman president, but a woman of color, the daughter of immigrants. Because she'll have served out less than half of a full presidential term upon my resignation in her favor, she'll be eligible to serve two full four-year terms of her own, beginning in January 2029. Her service as POTUS after my resignation will have proved her fitness beyond any doubt, giving her an excellent shot at being elected in her own right in 2028. So vote for us now, and you'll be getting not only a continuation of our present administration instead of a return to the chaos of Trumpism, you'll be getting a head start on the next great and genuinely historic American president. On this, my fellow Americans, you have my word, the word of a Biden, just like I gave you my word — and I kept it! how about that, a president who keeps his word? — when I promised to pick a woman of color as my running mate way back in the 2020 Democratic primaries."

    Twaddle, but self-consistent twaddle, and his least-bad option IMHO.

    Is there something y'all had in mind that I'm missing, in terms of a neat trick he might use to replace her without bleeding out from the self-inflicted damage from so doing?

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    1. John

      District Attorney of San Francisco, Attorney General of California and US Senator prior to being Vice President. That’s not shabby. Im thinking that I don’t like her but why? There seems to be little direct reason.
      Someone here ? said she sounds whiny when she talks and asked “did I ever listen to her”? Against trump or Biden, she’s a genius. I wrote here that “she’s not photogenic” and was then attacked by several readers for criticizing a woman’s looks. Someone ? on this site with apparent knowledge wrote that her performance as District Attorney of San Francisco was highly regarded. A direct opinion. Can we have more of these? Why do we all have this negative view?

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      1. Sjrubert

        In addition to terrible views on policy, she has several issues. She's terrible in interviews and debates. She has a history of severe prosecution of minorities, especially with respect to marijuana violations. She is tone deaf to the point that she lied about smoking weed while listening to Snoop Dogg after having incarcerated a large number of people for doing the same thing. Just search for her on YouTube. It's painful.

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        1. John

          I’ve heard her speak many times on TV. She is far better than trump or Biden. Marijuana. Yes. She was DA of San Francisco and at a time when punishment was more severe. I’d suggest you wait and get more information on her

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    2. TresLeches

      They won't replace her.

      And I put odds of a contested convention at 60/40. I would say a majority of Democratic voters disfavor Biden enough they'd support an alternative coming out of the convention. They'll vote Biden if stuck with him but "holding their noses" isn't a strong enough phrase.

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      1. Jeff.Oster03

        Nah, contested conventions are the kinds of things political observers really want / expect to happen, but they never do, since the first priority of the people who would be involved in one is keeping the party unified, even when it makes little sense. Ditto with ideas like "he will win the election, then immediately resign and put ___ in his place." Those things only happen in political TV shows.

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        Interesting!

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    3. Ingenero.lux

      Oof. I doubt committing to step down would do Biden any favors. Kamala Harris is Unlikeable, capital definitely intended. She's on her nth image reboot as VP and none have worked - so Biden's probably best off not highlighting her whatsoever, because voters aren't going to like what they see. Highlighting that he's old and that few people like his VP would hit both his vulnerabilities at once.

      I can't gauge the impact of replacing her - sure, it would hit him with his base, but most to all of the people who REALLY care would walk over broken glass to vote against Trump. He picks a diverse but more likable VP, maybe it nets him something. Otherwise he needs Kamala to stick to specific partisan crowds and otherwise pretend she doesn't exist.

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        I should add, cheerfully if belatedly: You're right, of course, Ingenero.lux, about the likelihood that otherwise from specific roles and events and audiences, Biden will do his best to pretend she doesn't exist. I'm just spit-balling; I expect no transformative creative thinking, nor self-knowledge, at this stage from Joe Biden.

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        She's a vulnerability he's stuck with. If he replaces her, his turnout hopes are instantly shot to hell. She's a lemon, but his best choice is to squeeze harder and hope for lemonade.

        There's no way to keep her offstage. Every moment he shows his age, voters ARE going to think of her, even if she's on a seven-month goodwill tour of Tasmania.

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        1. Ingenero.lux

          I have it! FIRST. VP. ON. MARS! One small step for a woman, one giant leap for Biden's campaign!

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            Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

            Everyone wins! (Everyone on earth, anyway.)

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