What Would the Middle East Look Like Without the Meddlesome Ayatollahs?

Iran’s leaders have upended governments and enmeshed themselves in regional governance, economics, and culture.

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Ayatollah Ali Khamanei. (Photo by Iranian Leader's Press Office/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.)

Demonstrations ongoing in Iran—lasting almost six weeks at this writing—have put the government of the Islamic Republic at risk for the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Many of the ingredients of a regime-killing mix are there, including widespread unrest beyond the original liberals and women. University professors and students, shopkeepers and energy sector workers have called strikes, and ethnic minorities have also joined in, spreading the unrest throughout the diverse country. Still, the regime falling remains a possibility rather than a probability, and security forces have thus far remained loyal. As the leadership of Iran teeters ever so slightly, however, it prompts a fascinating question: What would the Middle East look like absent the malign machinations of the ayatollahs?

The Islamic Republic’s reach is wide and deep in the region, and involves far more than the occasional headline about Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Hamas. Indeed, Iran has patented a foreign policy model that has defined an era and transformed the political topography of the Middle East in ways that will fill textbooks for generations to come. Together with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and particularly the elite Quds Force late leader, Gen. Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s ayatollahs have upended governments (Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen), fought and stage-managed wars directly and via proxies (with Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia; in Syria and Lebanon) and enmeshed themselves in regional governance, economics, and culture. 

Predicting the future of Iran is as parlous an occupation as any in geopolitics. Should the regime fall, it is unclear who will lead Iran in its stead. Is there a liberal government in the wings, lurking overseas as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did for many years? Or will the ever-more dominant IRGC step in and transform Iran from a theocratic dictatorship to a military one? Is there a “regime-lite”—styled after Iran’s elusive moderate Islamists? Or another version of the current regime, the dream of the cult-like opposition Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK)? There is no sure answer to the question. No deus ex machina is pulling the strings, maneuvering for a better leadership. The Biden administration is arguably passively pro-regime, or at best loath to seek to topple it in favor of something else. This is not unlike the Obama administration, which was palpably dismayed by Iran’s “Green Revolution” in 2009, believing it would stand in the way ofnegotiating a nuclear deal with the ayatollahs. 

Still, if imagining a better world is the prime directive of foreign policy, it’s worth asking what might happen if the cornerstone of the region-wide edifice Iran is constructing in the Middle East suddenly crumbled. Region by region, group by group, a change of that magnitude would be existential for many. 

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  1. Jameslbussey

    Love, love, love the explainer. Understand terms and implications much better now

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    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    What would the middle east look like without the meddlin' ayatollahs?
    Peaceful sand/desert, into of violent sand/desert.

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  3. Rossknode

    Excellent article and commentary. This is why I pay for The Dispatch.

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    Earl King

    Sadly this is an impossible question to answer. There is no doubt that the millions of disaffected in Iran have no interest in forcefully pursuing the answer of whom is the true heir to Mohammad. The Sunni Shia battle will continue. Iran apparently does not not need more than half a million to control 85 million if they have the weapons, the support and the will to kill its own citizens. There will be no doubt a rush to fill the vacuum if and when the religious zealots are overthrown I expect nothing more than done not peacefully with democracy but with a gun. My own understanding of the region is that the middle east basically still tribal are run by civilians with military backing. Barely more than autocratic dictatorships. To be sure whomever would take over they would likely be more concerned with consolidating their own power and position than with supporting Palestinian factions. My only advice is to keep our enemies poor. The worlds despots run on money and arms these days. A little less of both would seem to be all we can do.

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    J. Eric

    Excellent explainer! Thanks

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  6. Andy

    Great article. I feel, however, that it needed a different premise. I could’ve easily been an explainer on many of the ways the ayatollahs are bad for the world, for example. Even though the subject interests me a lot, the thought exercise-premise didn’t make me want to click the title..

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      Logical

      Usually her titles go something like, "How would the ME look if Obama and Biden didn't f'up constantly? "

      Compared to that, this is going in the right direction.

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  7. Nelsonadam68

    Great article, thank you

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    Outofegypt

    The comment by Paul R. below was helpful and a good reminder of why the Dispatch should include capsule biographies with their editorials, like many other publications do. That way, we could assess the credibility of their writers without doing our own outside research.

    Honestly, I don't think "imagining a better world" should be the prime directive of US foreign policy. The past 20 years of Middle East policy and wars should've taught us the consequence of such hubris.

    Rather, our goal should be to pursue our own interests and work with the world that we have. Avoiding foreign entanglements when possible.

    Obviously, if the Iranian regime were to fall, that could be a great thing. But we don't know whether what will fill the vacuum would be something like Libya post-Arab Spring.

    Once again, this author appears to be calling for war against Iran, while stopping just short of doing so overtly.

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  9. Israel.D.Gale

    Very nice piece, I learned a lot.

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    Rjosephpaquette

    In every human society, throughout history, there are two groups of people: those who want to control others and those who want to be left alone. Sadly the former is always more motivated to be politically active.

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      Man-Eating Cow

      True at every level. Every Republican got kicked off my city council after Trump's election -- frankly, an understandable voter response. But the one-party council that resulted promptly began acting like a large homeowners' association, prohibiting gas fixtures in new housing, adopting a noise ordinance that effectively outlaws dog ownershidp, adopting a sliding scale on utility bills that favors low-occupancy homes and penalizes gardening, and so on. They may be in for a big backlash in the coming election.

      Howeowners' associations are a work of the devil. They empower the most petty and meddlesome members of the neighborhood -- the aspiring Blockleiters.

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