‘Without Moderates, This Place Will Be Almost Unworkable’

Centrists in the House of Representatives continue their yearslong vanishing act.

By and
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Stephanie Murphy’s narrow defeat of 12-term GOP incumbent Rep. John Mica in 2016 quickly transformed her into a rising star within the Democratic Party. Even though a 2015 court-ordered redistricting ruling tilted Florida’s 7th Congressional District in her favor that election cycle, Murphy still only managed to carry 51.5 percent of the vote, setting herself up for a first term in Congress serving a constituency with little patience for ultra-progressive governing. 

Murphy internalized the dynamics of her district, joining the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and becoming co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition—a caucus of self-defined moderates who represent “the commonsense, moderate voice of the Democratic Party.” And she soon had a record to show for it. By the end of the Trump administration, her FiveThirtyEight Trump score—a metric that measured how often a lawmaker voted with the former president—clocked in at 30.5 percent, reflecting her willingness to buck party lines for her moderate constituents. By comparison, Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer ended the last administration with Trump scores of 17.6 percent and 12.8 percent, respectively.

But Murphy’s bipartisan star power crashed to a halt last month when the three-term Democrat announced she will not seek reelection. 

Even though Florida’s new redistricting maps likely influenced Murphy’s decision to leave Congress, her retirement speaks to a broader trend of Democrats fleeing the lower chamber ahead of the midterms, when House Republicans are expected to retake the majority this fall.

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  1. Avatar photo
    The Artful Curmudgeon

    Open primaries and rank choice voting would go a long way to tempering the extremes. We just need to see ballot initiatives at the state level. I would think there is broad support in the exhausted majority.

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    Ben Connelly

    Thanks for this article. Katko is one of the ones I’m saddest to see go.

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    Lynn Sebourn

    The polarization is being driven by voter preferences, but what is driving the voters? I think it's a combination of feeling threatened by the extreme left, but also being whipped up by the right media, all in chasing clicks.

    The only way out of this is to stop listening to the "mainstream media" so much, but I don' know what the catalyst for that is. But I'm pretty sure it involves someone stepping up and demonstrating extraordinary leadership .

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  4. Tim Moore

    I have seen repeated comments that if the Republicans do not take back House and Senate in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024, they never will - and at first I considered it extreme hyperbole. However, the more I watch, the more I think there is truth in it (to what degree I am not sure). I have been absolutely astounded at the rise of Marxist and pro-Marxist ideology which has been playing out - issues on race, policing, conviction of criminals just to name a few. I became a Democrat in 1967 (long story) and have not voted Democrat for decades, and watched Oregon turn from an almost libertarian balance to nearly solid blue west of the Cascades. I don't want a populist approach either; where has sanity gone?

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    1. Avatar photo
      David Chen

      I want them both to lose. At least I get to enjoy half the results of any election.

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      1. Tim Moore

        Well, I would like to separate out the populists from the Republicans before I would go that far.

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    Earl King

    Save for the overall budget expenditures and the taxes required.....What else does Congress do that can produce such polarization? Both Parties love to spend money...albeit deferently at times. Both Parties support money for the poor, and I take it that both Parties support Defense spending. Is their grift and graft in every Federal budget bill? Of course. No honor among thieves after all. I submit however there may be more that people agree on versus items they disagree. I believe it comes down to degree. Perhaps I am being ignorant. Let take voting reform....Which politician would disagree that every State should be able to count its ballots just as Florida does....By 11pm it done and we have an answer....Funding that is a good idea....Finally, why isn’t every House member part of the Problem Solvers Caucus? Yes there are forces that are winner take all, destroy your enemy, lose lose.....I get it, but can’t we at least work on things we somewhat agree on?

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    Justindcook

    I would really enjoy some reporting on Tony Gonzales (TX-23). He's in Will Hurd's old seat, who The Dispatch interviewed a few months ago. Rep Gonzales is in the Problem Solvers Caucus and focuses a lot on border issues, understandably. I think he's a moderate.

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  7. Avatar photo
    The Bell Tower

    If extremists must exist (and they must), the House is where they belong.

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  8. WYConcernedCitizen

    Thank you for this piece. It’s sad that we’re seeing this happen in Congress, but also in statehouses and municipal government. Feels like “Politician X” must be all-in regrading the most partisan planks of Team Red or Team Blue these days.

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    Bill Nelson

    Without doing the research, I suspect that this is not unique or new. When you go back to the early 19th century, the Federalist vs anti-Federalist battles seem to have been similar. And now as then, media plays a role, but at the end of the day, we voters get what we want.
    This round has been influenced by the Trump effort. Trump is/was the most evil of people and any democrat who was pursuing moderate policies was not battling Mordor. And Trump was the new savior of the nation who was willing to battle the socialists/communists trying to take over the country, and you were with him or with the devil.

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  10. Avatar photo
    Bill B

    It does seem like it is really worse than it looks. I'm increasingly driven to sci-fi to try and figure out where this is all going to end.

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