The last time we vibed together about the midterms I ended with a warning from Nate Cohn. Democrats are polling suspiciously well this year in states where the polls overestimated Joe Biden’s support in 2020, Cohn noted in mid-September. The recurring problem pollsters have had trying to capture the full extent of Republican support during the Trump era might be happening again.
Let’s start our latest vibe check with another, related warning from Cohn. Here he was last week writing about the new survey he’s overseeing for the New York Times.
In the poll we have in the field right now, only 0.4 percent of dials have yielded a completed interview. If you were employed as one of our interviewers at a call center, you would have to dial numbers for two hours to get a single completed interview.
No, it wasn’t nearly this bad six, four or even two years ago. You can see for yourself that around 1.6 percent of dials yielded a completed interview in our 2018 polling.