Stop the Squeal

How a red wave might, or might not, wash away election denialism.

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Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate and former TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz speaks as former President Donald Trump listens. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

It’s been awhile since Republicans had a big night at the polls.

Yes, yes, I know they went 27-for-27 in House toss-up races two years ago. And won total control of government as recently as 2016.

But if you’re a member of the grassroots right, the sort of person inclined to swallow Trump’s election lies about 2020, when was the last time your party experienced unmitigated success at the polls?

2020? Of course not. Trump was turned out of office, whether or not you accept the validity of the vote.

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  1. Bdecicco2001

    About election deniers:
    A friend told me that GOP politicians could not claim that the 2020 election was stolen/rigged, because that would mean that their own positions were invalid.

    He was wrong, of course.

    The Right has no problem declaring their losses to be fraudulent and their wins are unquestionable.

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  2. Petera

    This article assumes that "stop the steal" Republicans are logical and pay attention to facts. What will they think if Republicans win big next week? Simple. They will think that they would have won even bigger if it weren't for Democratic fraud. Because people who believe in conspiracy theories will generally double down on a conspiracy theory.

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      Ben Connelly

      Yeah. I’m pretty sure Nick uses this newsletter to float different theories or trial balloons. I’m not sure how committed he is to this one. I imagine he has several possibilities in mind and he likes to play with different narratives and see if he can make a case for one.

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    O.M.G. calling from Vaudeville, AZ

    Presented with comment.Now let U.S. pray….PRAY TO END TRUMPISM. That is
    all.

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  4. Very Old Grumpy Guy

    Nick, I love your optimism. I do not share it. We have fully entered into a period in which many people, maybe a majority, reach their beliefs independent of any examination of evidence or employing logic or critical thinking. My former party will only return to sanity if it suffers a monumental election defeat - that is not forth coming.

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    Michael Falciani

    Nate Silver...the Oracle of BS.

    I tip my hat to someone like him who can con people that he has some special insight into the future.

    My favorite poll is the one after people have voted and we have actual numbers, regardless of what the dimwits Trump and Abrams claim.

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  6. Edward Moffett

    However, the voters seem to like a divided government. Obama was reelected in 2012 after being humiliated in 2010.

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    Wiseman2x

    Dems had their chances in this election. But they never faced the two issues most voters are taking to the polls: crime and inflation. Fear of constituencies prevented any discussion of crime, and a stubborn refusal to acknowledge any responsibility or provide solutions (other than printing money) doomed them on inflation. It’ll be interesting to see the post-mortems.

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    Matmos

    I would fantasize what Nick says is true, but I think this argument is assuming more rationality and consistency on the part of MAGA enthusiasts than they have ever demonstrated.

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    Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

    Dear Nick Catoggio,

    "And won total control of government as recently as 2016."

    And Trump immediately took advantage of this, and started to fulfill tbe most important of his electoral promises, by building the wall...

    Oh, no, he waited after losing the mid-terms and control of the House, and then Steve Bannon scammed the Trump electors of millions, and was pardonned by Trump... "stop the steal" indeed.

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  10. Andrw4488

    Nick postulates: If you’re a populist Republican, in other words, you’ve never seen the national electorate clearly signal that it prefers a Trump-led GOP to the Democratic alternative.

    Couldn't Republicans being ahead in many races indicate that the voters in those districts are dissatisfied w/ the democrats representing them? Trump could have little or nothing to do with it. Is every republican a populist? Maybe democrats are behind because of inflation or gas prices? If a tree falls in the forest does Trump have to have cut it down?

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      Pat Riot

      There are always two different conversations about political campaigns and voters in elections: the 45% and the 5%.

      The question in the election is not whether "everybody" is going to switch their vote from D or R, but rather the middle 5% of voters who... actually change their minds.

      Almost all votes for Republicans in this cycle will come from Republicans. They are a given--even as the actual philosophy behind the party has changed drastically in the last 10 years.

      So on one hand, you are right: high gas prices are going to deliver Republicans a win this November (nobody understand this better than Putin and the Saudis).

      But if Republicans lost even 10% of their hard-core base (say if Trump decided to start a 3rd party), then they'd lose almost everywhere.

      Today, Trump is the Republican voting base. Virtually every voter for a Republican this cycle will be a Trump voter. So yeah, Trump is quite relevant in an absolute sense.

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      1. Andrw4488

        I agree with your calmly stated and well written first 4 sentences
        You leap to a conclusion that Trump is the Republican voting base. Or maybe that should be populism is? Either way I don't think this conclusion follows the earlier statements

        Neither a democrat or republican wins an election if they lose 10% of their base (Lets stipulate that the race is relatively close/within the margin for error to begin with). But there are independent and undecided voters (fewer all the time it seems) who do make up something like 5-10%. If they break to one side due to gas prices, inflation, etc. that is not due to Trump

        I agree if Trump started a 3rd party and was on all states ballots for president in 2024 he'd at least split the republican vote total and would make the democratic candidate an easy winner

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          Pat Riot

          Given the absolute control Trump exercises over the GOP--to the point of purging every House Republican who voted to impeach him--I think it's fair to say that he has enormous influence over most of it's voters.

          I suppose the absolute numbers here can shift around a bit, but my point was most of the vote for a given candidate is the base who will vote for the candidate no matter what, and when people talk about "what won the election" they usually talk about the final 10% not the first 90% of voters.

          But it's important not to forget where the first 90% came from.

          An example of this is the governor of Virginia who ran as a "moderate" even though 95% of his voters were Trump supporters. Now he operates exactly as you'd expect: as a Trump supporter, campaigning for election deniers all over the country.

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          1. Andrw4488

            Did Terry McCauliffe have anything to do with his own defeat?
            “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”
            Sometimes voters just don't like or turn on a candidate. So they vote for the other one
            I wish the justice dept would just charge Trump with something. I like the Dispatch but the endless Trump talk is mind melting. I'm starting to give in to the conspiracy theory that the left wants Trump to run again much more than the right does.

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    2. DTruitt

      Democrats always tell themselves and others that the majority of voters don't actually hate their policies but just don't like how Dems "communicate" them. Of course that's utter bullshit. Voters hate Dem policies, but apparently voters still need to be reminded every couple of election cycles whenever they vote out the Republicans ... generally for candidate-related weaknesses, not because they hate GOP policies.

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        Pat Riot

        Most of Biden's Build Back Better plan polled positively with majorities in West Freakin Virginia...

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        1. DTruitt

          Sure - everyone love freebies .. that is, until they have to pay for them. The bill for BBB is the highest inflation in more than two entire generations - I guaratee that inflation is polling horribly bad in West Virginia as well as the 49 other states.

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            Pat Riot

            Yep, but your point about Democrats not having policies people like is wrong. Democrats have a ton of policies, lots of which they actually passed in this cycle. Voters vote for Democrats because of their policies. Republicans on the other hand have no discernible policies (famously running without a party platform in 2020).

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