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Don’t Try to Read the Polling Tea Leaves
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Don’t Try to Read the Polling Tea Leaves

How modern polling works and why it could still be wrong, despite pollsters’ best efforts.

Happy Wednesday! Apple is reportedly making a movie out of the classic Oregon Trail video game—though we’re not sure how since, as far as we know, everyone in the game dies of dysentery. 

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • Vice President Kamala Harris delivered what her campaign described as her “closing argument” at the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday evening. In the address, Harris recalled former President Donald Trump’s speech there on January 6, 2021, that immediately preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol, calling him “unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, out for unchecked power.” Harris condemned what she called Trump’s effort to “keep the American people divided and afraid of each other,” saying “that’s not who we are.” 
  • Meanwhile, on Tuesday evening, President Joe Biden scrambled to tweet a clarification after he appeared to refer to Trump supporters as “garbage” during a Zoom event with Voto Latino, a campaign organization. “Just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a ‘floating island of garbage,’” Biden said, stumbling over his words. “Well let me tell you something: I don’t—I don’t know the Puerto Rican that I know—or the Puerto Rico where I’m—in my home state of Delaware. They’re good, decent, honorable people. The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters. His—his—his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable and it’s un-American and totally contrary to everything we’ve done.” The White House quickly released a transcript of the remarks featuring a possessive apostrophe (supporter’s), and Biden claimed in a tweet after the interview he was referring solely to racial comments made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump rally over the weekend: “I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump’s supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage—which is the only word I can think of to describe it. His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable. That’s all I meant to say. The comments at that rally don’t reflect who we are as a nation.” The Trump campaign quickly slammed the comments, with vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance tweeting that it is “disgusting” that “Kamala Harris and her boss Joe Biden are attacking half of the country.” 
  • Former President Trump on Tuesday campaigned in Pennsylvania, telling voters in the swing state with some 500,000 people of Puerto Rican descent that “we love” Puerto Rico in an effort to temper the blowback to the rhetoric at his rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday evening. At a rally later on Tuesday in Allentown, Pennsylvania, which is majority Hispanic, he was joined by Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
  • Sen. J.D. Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, will reportedly sit down for an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan on Wednesday. The planned appearance follows former President Trump’s three-hour interview with the popular host, who has more than 17 million YouTube followers, last week. Rogan said he is still discussing an interview with Vice President Harris but the parties have not yet agreed on a time or location; Harris wanted Rogan to come to her, while Rogan requested to record the episode from his Austin studio.
  • In two unsigned orders on Tuesday, the Supreme Court declined to remove Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the ballots in Wisconsin and Michigan. Kennedy, who dropped out of the race in August and endorsed former President Trump, petitioned the court to remove him from the ballots in the two key swing states, arguing that the states were violating his First Amendment rights by keeping his name on the ballot and falsely suggesting he still wished to run for president. 
  • Steve Bannon, onetime adviser to former President Trump, was released from federal prison on Tuesday after serving a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress. Following his release he said he was “empowered,” and resumed recording his War Room podcast. Bannon, who defied a congressional subpoena from the January 6 committee, said he was ready to help the former president in the few days remaining before the presidential election on Tuesday.
  • Russia on Tuesday test-fired missiles thousands of miles to simulate a retaliatory strike after a nuclear attack. As part of the tests, the Russian military reportedly fired intercontinental ballistic missiles from the ground, as well as ballistic missiles from submarines and cruise missiles from jets—demonstrating the full “triad” of Russian nuclear capabilities. “Given the growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is important to have modern and constantly ready-to-use strategic forces,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in announcing the exercises. 
  • Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed, Lebanon-based terrorist organization, on Tuesday named a successor to assassinated leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Hezbollah senior council elected Naim Kassem, Nasrallah’s former deputy chief. The Shiite cleric is one of the few Hezbollah leaders left alive after Israel’s recent series of decapitating strikes against the group’s top operatives. In response to the appointment, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tweeted a picture of the new leader, writing, “Temporary appointment. Not for long.” 
  • A Vatican commission on clerical sexual abuse released its first annual report on Tuesday, 10 years after the group was established. The members of the Pontifical Commission for the Protection of Minors wrote that “a significant part of Central and South America, Africa, and Asia have inadequate dedicated resources” for safeguarding against sexual abuse. The group also called for more transparency from the office at the Vatican that handles sexual abuse claims. 
  • The Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health said Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes in northern Gaza killed dozens of people, including women and children. Eyewitnesses claimed that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck a residential building, and the IDF said it was “aware of reports that civilians were harmed today in the Beit Lahia area” and planned to investigate the incident. Meanwhile, the Israeli parliament opened its winter session on Monday, passing two bills that could potentially limit the work of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNWRA) in Gaza and the West Bank. The agency has been linked to Hamas, including acknowledging in August that some of its staff were involved in the October 7 attack. 

Stop Worrying and Love the Poll

President-elect Donald J. Trump speaks on stage at his election night event at The New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016 in New York City.  (Photo by Neilson Barnard/WireImage)
President-elect Donald J. Trump speaks on stage at his election night event at The New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Neilson Barnard/WireImage)

“Go kayaking.” That was the advice one experienced pollster gave when one of your Morning Dispatchers asked how voters should approach election polls as the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump enters its final stage. 

With less than a week to go until the election, voters, pollsters, reporters, and hacks are all looking at the same polls trying to read the tea leaves and predict Tuesday’s outcome. But with vanishingly small margins and a legacy of “misses” that left Americans surprised on Election Day, understanding how polls work—and how pollsters have adjusted over the years—could be what it takes to stop worrying and love the poll. Or, of course, you could just go kayaking. 

Current surveys show a race that is essentially a coin flip. Trump surged in the national polling during the weeks leading up to and immediately following President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, and Harris enjoyed a lead for a few months following her replacing Biden on the ticket. But the polls have tightened considerably in recent weeks. In 538’s national polling average, Harris leads by a mere 1.4 points over Trump, at 48.1 percent to 46.7 percent—well within the margin of error. 

Polling averages in the seven battleground states that will decide the election tell an even closer story: Trump leads by …


As a non-paying reader, you are receiving a truncated version of The Morning Dispatch. Our 1,523-word item on understanding polls in a tight presidential race is available in the members-only version of TMD.

Worth Your Time

  • China is at the center of an anti-Western bloc whether it—or the U.S.—likes it or not, Oriana Sklar Mastro wrote in Foreign Affairs. “There is a reason for this ambiguity,” she argued. “China wants to supplant the United States as the world’s dominant power, and although partnering with Iran, North Korea, and Russia helps Beijing in that effort, the trio can also undermine its aims. The three states weaken Washington by attracting its resources and distracting it from Beijing. But they have also greatly antagonized powerful neighbors—such as Germany, Japan, and Saudi Arabia—that China doesn’t want to alienate. As a result, Chinese officials must walk a fine line. Their relationship with the axis must be close enough that they can wield it, but not so close that they are blamed for its misbehavior. Unfortunately, the United States is letting China have the best of both worlds.”

Presented Without Comment

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, responding to Joe Biden’s “garbage” comments:

I had not heard that until now, Kaitlan, so I’m kind of giving you my fresh reaction to it. I would never insult the good people of Pennsylvania or any Americans, even if they chose to support a candidate that I didn’t support.

Also Presented Without Comment

The Hill: Trump Says He is ‘Opposite of a Nazi’

In the Zeitgeist

With the exception of a dominant showing last night, the New York Yankees haven’t put up much of a fight in this year’s World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers—and a couple of Yankees fans just couldn’t act right about it. 

Toeing the Company Line

  • Is Iran the greatest U.S. adversary? How should the next administration shape Europe’s policy on China? Is the U.S. military up for war with China? Mary was joined by Dispatch symposium contributors to discuss all that and more on last night’s Dispatch Live (🔒). Members who missed the conversation can catch a rerun—either video or audio-only—by clicking here
  • In the newsletters: The Dispatch Politics crew examined the Electoral College paths to victory for Trump and Harris, and Nick waded into Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. 
  • On the podcasts: Jonah is joined by historian Christopher Cox on The Remnant to discuss Jonah’s arch-nemesis, Woodrow Wilson. 
  • On the site: Philip Wallach previews how control of the House might shake out and Jonah takes the “long view” on voting. 

Mary Trimble is the editor of The Morning Dispatch and is based in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the company in 2023, she interned at The Dispatch, in the political archives at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po), and at Voice of America, where she produced content for their French-language service to Africa. When not helping write The Morning Dispatch, she is probably watching classic movies, going on weekend road trips, or enjoying live music with friends.

Grayson Logue is the deputy editor of The Morning Dispatch and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Prior to joining the company in 2023, he worked in political risk consulting, helping advise Fortune 50 companies. He was also an assistant editor at Providence Magazine and is a graduate student at the University of Edinburgh, pursuing a Master’s degree in history. When Grayson is not helping write The Morning Dispatch, he is probably working hard to reduce the number of balls he loses on the golf course.

James P. Sutton is a Morning Dispatch Reporter, based in Washington D.C. Prior to joining the company in 2024, he most recently graduated from University of Oxford with a Master's degree in history. He has also taught high school history in suburban Philadelphia, and interned at National Review and the Foreign Policy Research Institute. When not writing for The Morning Dispatch, he is probably playing racquet sports, reading a history book, or rooting for Bay Area sports teams.

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