Stirewaltisms: Presenting Your 2022 House Race Ratings

An upward revision for the GOP points to some breathing room for the red team.

By
81
Katie Porter is among the Democratic incumbents feeling the heat this election season. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

PRESENTING YOUR 2022 HOUSE RACE RATINGS

Seven weeks ago, our House forecast pointed to expected gains of about 15 seats for Republicans—enough to give the GOP a hard-to-handle 10-seat majority in the lower chamber. But we also said that the winds were blowing in the Republicans’ direction. And boy, did they ever.

The 3.4-point shift in the average generic ballot since then has been enough to give Republicans a small but clear 1.3-point advantage on the question of which party voters generally prefer to control Congress. That wouldn’t be enough to deliver the kinds of 25-seat and 30-seat majorities the GOP won in 2010 and 2014, but certainly enough to give the red team some breathing room and make Democrats start thinking about a wipeout.

When it comes to what the overall composition of the House will be, it doesn’t really help to get bogged down in specific races. With 435 simultaneous contests, it’s better to think about the climate overall. The national mood will tell us what the range of seats will be, then we can drill down on specific races to try to put a finer point on the number.

Starting at generalities, Republicans appear to be on track for a net gain of between 15 and 25 seats compared to the 2020 election, so let’s drop the plumb line on a 20-seat gain for a majority of about 233 seats compared to 202 seats for Democrats. That would be a 16-seat majority, which looks pretty good compared to the Dems’ current three-vote margin. 

Create a free account
Access additional articles and newsletters for no cost, no credit card information needed. Continue ALREADY HAVE AN ACCOUNT? SIGN IN
81
By
Comments (81)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    For a political junkie, I’ve never been really wild about horseraces and election coverage. But now I think I’m finally starting to get why you like it, Mr. Stirewalt. For you I think (and for some other pundits), horse-race excitement comes from a place of deep fondness for America, for its regional diversity and flavor. As I read through the different House races, with the different names and their distinctive local characters, I can’t help but smile to myself. When I see that in some districts you could run Vladimir Lenin and still the Democrats would win, and in others Republicans would vote for a cockroach before they’d vote for a Blue Dog Democrat, I think, “I love this country.”

    You throw in lots of cultural and food references and so many go over my head, but it really adds to the otherwise dry “who’s up, who’s down” election coverage. God bless you, Mr. Stirewalt. You’re a true American patriot.

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Mleach

    Despite being a born and raised Kentuckian, having a grandfather who competed in and served as a field judge in game bird hunts, having a best friend who became the weapons instructor for the Cincinnati PD, and having been one shot shy of earning my marksmanship ribbon in the USAF, I had never heard the phrase "Kentucky windage" before. I expect I'll be using it a lot going forward.

    Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    Greg Williams

    I promised myself that I would not vote for any republican that endorsed Trump's election lies but I've found that hard, given some of the alternatives. J.D. Vance has made it easy for the senate race.

    Starting a month ago, I have been getting spam texts daily from his campaign. They are using a random number generator, so the texts are impossible to block. Made the mistake of replying STOP (as instructed in the texts) to get off the list, that increased the number of texts from 1 or 2 per day to 6 to 10 texts per day. I will joyfully pound on the touch screen to cast my vote for Ryan on election day.

    Collapse
  4. Avatar photo
    Stephanie

    I just love all the captions but especially the first one.

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Pat @ Tavi Hall

    Alligators often sun with their mouths open to regulate their body temperature.

    Collapse
  6. DTruitt

    The value of horse race election journalism is rather limited given the poor record of the horserace predictors, based mostly on often defective polling, in recent elections … even when focusing on the big picture environment.

    But simply based upon the overall mood of the electorate, given the mismanagement of Dens these past two years, it’s not a stretch to conclude that the Dems will lose at least the House, putting an abrupt end to their policy making and turning Biden into a lame duck. Regardless of how large a margin the GOP has, it will still terminate Dem lawmaking. The House has had a razor thin margin for the Dems the last two years but that didn’t stop them from their ability to enact their policies.

    Collapse
    1. Retired Prosecutor

      Yes, with a tie vote in the Senate, thinking you had an "FDR Mandate" was delusional.

      Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    Bill B

    So the polls indicate the voters believe Democracy is at risk but it’s not a top mid-term issue? And neither political party has made it the top issue.

    Ahhh… yes. The price of gas and no limit abortions are more important…. oooh! and big screen TVs and large trucks.

    And I thought I might be too cynical.

    Collapse
    1. Retired Prosecutor

      Do the Dems think democracy is really at risk, or is it the best they have after governing in a manner wherein Biden has a lower approval rating than Trump did? I'm sure someone will quibble and say there are find polls that say Biden's slightly better, but the fact remains that he has absolutely execrable approval numbers.

      Of course a Democratic Party that truly believed that American democracy was on the line would have moderated politically, culturally, and fiscally in view of horrible polling. And a Democratic Party that believed that American democracy was on the line would have sacrificed some of its pre-existing ideological agenda so that it could meaningfully address the economic crisis that has caused its precipitous decline in the polls.

      A Democratic Party that believed that American democracy was on the line would not have consciously elevated the candidates it now casts as existential threats, in the hope that they’d be easier to beat on Election Day. A Democratic Party that believed that American democracy was on the line would not have muddied its message at the same time by talking loudly about packing the Supreme Court and abolishing the Senate filibuster. A Democratic Party that believed that American democracy was on the line would have expelled election-denier Stacey Abrams from its ranks.

      Of course, this Democratic Party has not done so. The "threat to democracy" is simply this cycle's talking point.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Bill B

        I'm sorry but look at where we're at and where we've been. Just look at what the Republican Party has become. Is this your Republican Party?

        Collapse
        1. Retired Prosecutor

          Part of it is -- just like part of yours is.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Bill B

            Well, I’m not a Democrat but I get your point.

            Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Stephanie

      Apparently the voters are not aware of all the election manipulation going on in Red states and the R resistance to amending the Electoral Count Act, as from what I've read of polling, a great many of them think "democracy at risk" refers to the perennial problem of corruption.

      I imagine if you talk to an average person about the 2020 election and the organized efforts to disenfranchise voters in swing states, not to mention the maneuvering to put election deniers into offices that will be controlling state elections, most of them will have no idea what you mean.

      I've found this out for myself, in talking with people I know are intelligent but don't think national politics is important or interesting.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Bill B

        I suspect so but they ought to know and it's the job of the political class to ensure they know free of all the partisan cant.

        Collapse
    3. Retired Prosecutor

      Yes, let us worry about Democracy being at risk . . . from candidates the Dems spent $43 million dollars on during the primaries to get them nominated, instead of more moderate Republicans.

      Hey Dems . . . you own this.

      Collapse
      1. Mary Stine

        You may be right. As a Dem, I'm furious about that. As a Dem in Kansas I'm sure national leadership will ignore my opinion along with ignoring the races our excellent governor and congresswoman are struggling in. That $43 million could have gone a long way in Kansas and other smaller states to help Dem candidates. I suspect however, that the coastal leadership in the Dems has little respect for the bipartisan efforts of Sharice Davids and Governor Kelly, so they are cut out. If the Trumpian candidates Dems supported win I may tear up my Dem membership and go independent. Now, please excuse me while I go grind my teeth again....

        Collapse
        1. Retired Prosecutor

          I'm guessing the candidates you mention are moderate Dems. That $43 million expenditure however is proof the claim that the worries about "democracy" are purely performative and this year's talking point.

          Good luck with your candidates!

          Collapse
          1. Mary Stine

            Prayers are also accepted! I'm not ready to accuse the malplodders of pure performance just yet. I'm sure lots of Dems will say that they can't trust that a more sane Republican candidate wouldn't sidle up to Trump anyway. However, for me that's no excuse.
            Davids and Kelly are normal sane Kansans from hard working families, not elites, but not uneducated either. Both have gone out on a limb to help struggling Kansas farmers and rural communities, and both have worked with Republicans to get important legislation passed. We'll see if that will be enough and if folks will remember that Kelly pulled Kansas out of a financial morass and restored our roads and schools, with help from Davids in securing federal aid.

            Collapse
      2. Avatar photo
        Bill B

        Who's "we"?

        Collapse
        1. Retired Prosecutor

          Yeah, who's "we."

          Collapse
    4. Retired Prosecutor

      Yes, working class folks should think about hypothetical risks to Democracy . . . and shunt aside that decision as to whether to buy food for their kids or fill their fuel tank to get to work. Progressive people on this board just don't have a clue as to the concerns of the working class, and some middle class voters. But they are about to learn the hard way, and then they will be surprised once again.

      When that happens, look for lots of "the voters are stupid and misinformed" reactions, rather than any attempt to learn from the experience.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Bill B

        It's not "hypothetical" any more than Jan 6 was "legtimate public discourse". And having armed thugs(poll watchers) at polling places in this election isn't a theoretical exercise. The notion that only Progressives worry about our democracy is pretty insulting to working and middle-class voters and everyone else for that matter. Don't preach to me about working/middle class. I spent nearly half my life on shop floors or the deck of a battleship, counselor.

        Republicans/conservatives really haven't been recognized as defenders of the working and middle class or do we have a special version of history for that also?

        Collapse
        1. Retired Prosecutor

          Dems increasingly don’t represent the working classes but rather speak for the elites and the college educated. Among other things, it appears that Hispanic are turning Republican in significant numbers. There is even some growth in the GOP share of the African American vote.

          Perhaps you have been missing much of the recent commentary in the Dispatch.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Bill B

            I'm aware that rarefied academic Progressives are the vanguard of a lot of the nonsense coming out of the Democratic Party. I'm hoping this election will be a cold splash of reality for some of the grayer heads who thought they could humor them. At one time they were a working class party and the leadership surely can't be so benighted as not to recognize they're losing that constituency . That Republicans seem to believe they can now grab that mantle through apocalyptic authoritarian, nationalist populist appeals disguised as "freedom" to voters with a thin attachment to politics and democratic norms doesn't make them a "working class" party but something entirely different.

            The dilemma we have is that we have two parties with authoritarian cadres quite willing to play chicken with each other over the dismembered corpse of the republic. That is why it is more important than ever that we stop treating elections as vulgar transactions where we hand over our votes to buy what we want in some kind of parody of an Invisible Hand economy where all our selfish choices result in the best of all possible worlds. Our priority ought be to concentrate on strengthening the country and the institutions that protect democratic processes and values. As a real-world example of what I mean, voter ID is largely a waste of effort but I still voted Yes on the ballot measure to approve it because there is no evidence it does any substantial harm or good but it might minimize post-election quackery and stabilize democratic transfers of power. We have to think beyond our own narrow ideological prejudices and interests.

            Collapse
    5. DTruitt

      The average low to middle income voters are getting killed by Dem super inflation - yet wow, you have such contempt for the “petty” non elites of America!

      And that is why you’ll lose the House turning Joe Biden into a useless lame duck. Maybe the Senate too.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Bill B

        "Dem superinflation"? Really, the Dems did that all by themselves? No help from Republicans or Fed policy or the pandemic or oil markets?

        And it seems to me a concern for our democracy ought be pretty foundational for any voter. What DVD player you're going to buy doesn't mean much if you don't have a TV.

        It's a mid-term election so the incumbent always has a disadvantage. No doubt the Dems blew it but given that a good half of the Republican candidates are "Big Steal" proponents I wouldn't take any comfort in thier loss. The contest between Democrats and Republicans these days is like watching dumb and dumber so it's not as if there are a lot of good choices out there but at least the candidate minimum ought to be they don't cancel democracy.

        Don't give me that tired "elite" crap... at least come up with something original.

        Collapse
        1. DTruitt

          100% of all Republicans in Congress voted against the Biden/Dem "Build Back Better" giveaway that added massively to the debt, and throughout the entire debate on that bill the Republicans continually warned that massive inflation would be the result if it was passed.

          So yeah, it's all 100% on the Dems - you guys own it. Certainly that is how most voters see it.

          The irony of parties attempting to achieve and then getting full control of both Houses of Congress and the White House is that that party has nobody else to blame for its effups. It's like the proverbial dog who chases the cars out front on the street, but has no idea what to do when they "catch" one. That applies to both parties ... which is why the voters have tended to vote out the party in control in the very next election, because when one party captures everything they always go too far. It's human nature.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Bill B

            100% of Republicans vote against nearly every Democratic proposal! That's meaningless. They didn't have any problem passing Trump's tax cut.

            Blaming the current inflation on a single bill is just a non-starter.

            Collapse
        2. Retired Prosecutor

          Tough to pin this on the GOP -- Dems have controlled both Houses, as well as the Executive Office. And I think it's a fair characterization to call it super-inflation, since it is the highest in a generation. And another 75 basis point bump by the Fed is right around the corner on 11/2. (Apparently the electorate voted for normality, but got James Earl Carter instead.)

          As far as the genesis of inflation, if you print trillions of dollars (generally authorized by complete party line votes), during a time of serious supply chain constraints, you shouldn't be surprised by an inflated currency.

          Unfortunately the only fix, Fed monetary policy, will absolutely drive us into a significant recession. And all reputable economists predict a recession next year. Mohamed El-Arian, my economic lodestar and IMHO the best there is, discussed the economic challenges we face in the next 2 years or so on Dan Senor's podcast "Call Me Back." Warning: it's pretty ugly.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Bill B

            And a $2 trillion tax cut to an expanding economy isn't inflationary? The causes of the present inflation go back a ways and bear the fingerprints of a lot of institutions, Congresses and Presidents. No one is trying to pin it on the GOP - I'm not. Whose fault it is and who's to blame can't be the only category we think in.

            We are going to have a recession. It's going to be the only way to wring inflation out. Volcker provided that lesson. I like El-Erian and Grantham.

            Collapse
  8. Avatar photo
    David M

    Nice work on this newsletter. It was quite a job to compile all that data, thanks!

    Collapse
  9. Avatar photo
    Rlritt

    "Republicans also increasingly won’t participate in public opinion polls" this makes no sense. If Republicans don't respond to polls than who are these people saying they'll vote Republican?

    Also, no one polls new voters and the 18 to 29 yr olds. They voted in record numbers last election and are even more motivated now. I've seen polls specific to that age group and they overwhelmingly support Democrats and issues like Abortion Laws, which you all keep saying voters don't care about. Maybe voters over 55 don't care.

    Collapse
    1. ILiu

      We will see what happens in a few days, but it looks like younger voters aren't turning out. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/young-voters-dem-early-00063929

      Seems like abortion isn't salient, Biden's student loan forgiveness ploy isn't working (probably energizes conservatives more), and legitimate Democratic wins (Infrastructure Bill, anyone?) just aren't weighing on the minds. I honestly don't even know what the "Inflation Reduction Act" does (something about fighting climate change), and I'm a news junkie.

      As for caring about democracy, I think it only motivates older dems and Dispatch conservatives. For younger folk, the statement "American democracy was never legitimate in the first place" is persuasive. Why protect what never existed?

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Rlritt

        You know some very different young people than I do.

        Collapse
        1. ILiu

          Probably. My political friends were/are all on the debate team, and debaters barely behave like actual people and are incredibly jaded. And I very much live/have lived in conservative bubbles, so I have a very small sample size of political friends who would entertain the thought of voting Democrat.

          But I would be very surprised if young folk turned out, and even more surprised if they end up helping dems outperform the polls. There is no indication the polls under-polled young liberals in 2020 or 2018, but plenty of indication they under-polled conservatives. I have it hard to believe the 16.5% to 5.4% of mail-in/early voting ballots cast by young people will be made up by young people showing up on election day.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Rlritt

            Just one article I read recently.
            <<<>>> they changed the outcome of the election, and Republicans reflexively, demanded an expensive recount only to find that they indeed lost due to the activism of young voters. P0

            Collapse
    2. Retired Prosecutor

      Many Republicans increasingly no longer participate in things that they consider a rigged game. Great examples are polling and its interplay with the mainstream media. To a great extent, the media has made holding conservative beliefs shameful and unacceptable. Hence conservatives are cowed by the demands of political correctness and increasingly choose to remain silent. However they are not hesitant to display their convictions at the ballot box. And of course Republicans are more reliable voters than Democrats, and in particular young people.

      All of this explains the polling deficiencies of the last few cycles, and why Republicans are doing better than pollster predictions. We will see if this remains true in a few days.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Rlritt

        "To a great extent, the media has made holding conservative beliefs shameful and unacceptable." 1st off Fox 24 hour News ans conservative talk radio which dominates the airways love Republicans, especially the violent and Amrrican ones. And 2nd of all, speaking for myself, anyone who supports a narcissistic, grifter like Trump is shameful, unacceptable and crazy.

        Collapse
        1. Retired Prosecutor

          In my post I said that the Mainstream Media has trumpeted a message that conservative beliefs are shameful and unacceptable, and as a result, GOP voters thus don't want to engage with pollsters. That is the Republican perception.

          Respectfully, your post (Fox News is terrible, Trump is a grifter), is totally unresponsive to anything that I posted.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Rlritt

            Of course it is. You stated that mainstream Republicans, (who are now embracing Fascism) don't interact with mainstream media because the media believes their views are shameful and unacceptable. As a supporter of Democracy, I'm saying their views of supporting Trump and fascism are unacceptable. But, they also seem very willing to tell anyone who will listen that Trump is great and American Democracy is overrated. Just like the Republican traitors running for office in order to end over 200 years of American Democracy.

            Collapse
  10. Avatar photo
    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    From time to time, each of our two major political parties has proven itself to be capable of bravely and boldly advancing, through gales of controversy, through storms of adversity, up to the very jaws of defeat — and from there, to snatch away ...

    An even greater defeat.

    This time looks to be the Dems' turn to do that.

    PS: That gator looks suspiciously Disneyfied to me! Could it be a Trojan Horse-Gator?

    Collapse
Load More