The Difference Between a Biden Loss and a Trump Win

How to read the latest polling on key swing states.

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President Joe Biden looks out at the crowd while speaking at Stupak Community Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, on March 19, 2024. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

A good friend and longtime political consultant gave me the best framing I’ve heard for the 2024 presidential election: “I don’t think Trump can win … but Biden could lose.”

And with the most recent round of swing state polling, we’ve got that in spades. The Wall Street Journal’s pollsters matched up President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the seven key swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. 

The headline, “Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing States,” is accurate, but it would have been more useful to say that Biden trails Trump.

Here’s why: 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Bel

    It defies logic for Georgians to think the Georgia economy is bad. It's booming. The Atlanta airport is packed, every other corner you turn a new home is going up, there is all kind of investment into green industries, and the state is flush with tax revenue

    A voter could logically credit Kemp instead of Biden for the good economy; Kemp is good at courting industry and staying out of their way. But to believe the GA economy is bad is to have ones head up ones posterior.

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  2. Bob O'Donnell

    FWIW I watched The Hill yesterday after having read this piece and noticed Chris that you had very few vocalized pauses. Love your work on TD and NN. Keep up the great work.

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  3. Steve Flaig

    I don't understand the optimism of Trump supporters--yeah, yeah I know polls are bogus, etc.--. Biden is one of the worst presidents in recent memory--and that's saying something--and his approval rating seems locked at 40% and yet Trump's "lead" is far from substantial. The best case for a Biden victory is Trump, a man who knocked Hilary off the most hated politician in America pedestal, and come November Dems will turn-out in droves to vote against the guy. In short, the Republicans will have blown another easy election by nominating the one candidate Biden can beat. Good job guys. I won't even discuss the Senate and just ask, "With candidates like Lake and Moreno, what should a reasonable person think will happen?"

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    1. J. Walter Weatherman

      I agree. But I would add that its a close-run thing right now because the Democrats likewise nominated the one candidate that could possibly lose to Trump. If they would either A) pick a "normal" left winger that their left wing base would support, like a Newsome or a Whitmer or B) picked a more centrist candidate that Haley and Never Trump Republicans could grudgingly support, they would be running away with this thing. So I think both parties have shot themselves in the foot to some degree with their choice of nominee.

      I still think the Dems could salvage the election by dumping Harris and replacing her on the ticket with a more centrist Democrat. Since, lets be honest, it's unlikely that Biden will complete a second term, a more centrist running mate could peel off a lot of support from Haley Republicans, maybe without alienating their left-wing base too badly. It's a tightrope, to be certain, but not inconceivable.

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  4. Mike Darnell

    Chris…William F. had quite a few “uhs” in the clip provided.

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  5. Chuck Almdale

    Chris:
    On "uh.."
    Silence is both golden and useful. A pause is not evil, bad manners or poor potty training. It shows thoughtfulness, consideration. A pause need not be vocalized. Try it.

    However, when the pistols and knives start to come out in retaliation, "uh" is far better than "you know."

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  6. Anna K. Gorisch

    "Biden’s 30-second ad, called ‘Save America. Join Us,’ includes a montage of Trump mocking his former UN ambassador as ‘crazy,’ ‘very angry,’ and a ‘bird brain.’"

    Lord, the DNC is really struggling to find a positive message on Biden, and for some reason thinks Haley voters are just easily-manipulated morons. First a nice welcome mat via X, now this ad "targeting" Haley voters. As if we hadn't heard him say that stuff already. Does he think we will suddenly vote for Biden because we're just so mad at Donald Trump for being mean to our candidate? "Hey he called her birdbrain! I had no idea! Guess I'll vote Biden."

    Biden's problem is not that Haley voters will pull the lever for Trump: I think many if not most will not. His problem is that he cannot give us any reason to pull the lever for him.

    How do they not see the difference?

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    1. J. Walter Weatherman

      "Biden's problem is not that Haley voters will pull the lever for Trump: I think many if not most will not. His problem is that he cannot give us any reason to pull the lever for him. "

      THIS. This right here.

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    2. Avatar photo
      Stephanie

      The most obvious reason for this ad is that most people are not as tuned in to what Trump has been saying all along.

      I think current political engagement among average voters could probably be estimated as close to the 5% of Republicans who just voted in my state’s Republican primary.

      I know from previous comments I’ve read from you that you are a “double hater” or would yourself never vote for a Democrat.

      But you don’t speak for all Republicans, and other Republicans may not have the very deep tribal loyalty that you have.

      And, of course, probably 95% of voters are not even aware that Trump said those things about Nikki Haley, and they might rightly be quite shocked.

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      1. Anna K. Gorisch

        To be honest, I'd be amazed if Haley voters were unaware and even if they are not aware, they won't be surprised. They were with him after everything else he said, and you think "birdbrain" is where anyone draws the line? 95% of voters don't know he said that? Haley regularly called it out on the campaign trail. Trump has spent the last 8 years saying insulting and crazy things. I'm a little insulted by your assumption that Haley voters are low-information voters.

        I will not vote for Biden, but that's not the same as never voting for a Democrat. I voted for Obama. I would vote for Jared Polis.

        Why you think I have a tribe of any kind is baffling. I'm not a member of other party and I'm not going to accept your label of "double hater." Do I dislike both parties? Absolutely. But for me this isn't about hate. I'm just not going to vote for either of these two men. I'm a political orphan, and I promise it is extremely lonesome. I wish I had a tribe. I envy you.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Stephanie

          "Double haters" is a shorthand term used by political strategists who divide voters into categories, in figuring out voting trends. It is not a character judgment. As you might guess, it means people who feel strongly that they can't vote for either candidate.

          As opposed to people who may not be enthusiastic about either, but will still vote for one.

          I disagree with you that "Haley voters" are not just part of the primary electorate, which is less than 10% of the entire electorate. At this point in time, I doubt that any more than 10% of the electorate is as engaged as you or I are.

          It has nothing to do with "low information voters" which is a term you injected and I didn't use.

          It has to do with the fact that 90% of the population that votes in the general election isn't paying attention to what either Trump or Biden is saying at this point. They may not know Nikki Haley exists. They're living their lives, going to work, raising families. Nothing wrong with that.

          I don't think it stands you in good stead to be so easily insulted by comments which were not inherently insulting. If I made the mistake of thinking you were Republican because you express views no liberal would have, it's hardly occasion for steam to come out of your ears.

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          1. Anna K. Gorisch

            Meh, I give you a B- on deflection here.

            I didn't say you insulted me; I said it was a bit insulting for the Biden campaign to assume "Haley voters" (which, by the way, is who we are talking about) have never heard of Donald Trump, or that they're prepared to vote for Trump but if they find out he called Haley birdbrain, they will switch to Biden. It assumes they don't know even the basics about Trump. It's a Biden campaign ad that isn't likely to be effective - why are you picking a fight with me about it?

            Not a delicate flower, no steam coming out of my ears. Just tired of people like you who cannot think beyond dichotomies. In your opinion, I don't say things liberals would say, hence it is reasonable to assume I'm a Republican. Some of us think for ourselves. Why assume the worst? I don't believe my views are particularly radical and that no liberals would agree on any of it. I've said multiple times here that I'm strongly pro-choice.

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        2. J. Walter Weatherman

          Very well stated, Anna. Thank you for posting it.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Anne W (Raw5254)

    I think the problem for Biden is he has been our president for almost four years now, and he just hasn’t been very good. Not all of it is his fault, but his age really stands out. During his presidency, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Hamas struck Israel. Both things could have happened when Trump was president, but they didn’t, and lots of his supporters will point that out. The borders have too many leaks. It doesn’t mean that Trump handled the border problem all that well, but his supporters look at the numbers, and for them, Trump was the winner.

    Then there is Biden’s problems with his base. A lot of Democrats are unhappy with them (just as a lot of Republicans are unhappy with their base), but they get the attention, including from the President.

    I’ve argued with people in the National Review comments, and they will point out all the things that did “not” happen while Trump was president compared to Biden. Some of it was luck, and some of it has to do with Biden’s base. That’s just how I see it.

    I cannot vote for Trump, but Biden is doing nothing, absolutely nothing to win my vote.

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    1. Anna K. Gorisch

      I'm with you, and it's beyond insulting for the DNC to think all we need is a nice invitation and reminder that Trump was SO MEAN to our preferred candidate! (You may not be a Haley voter, but I am, and I'm really sick of the worst attempt to court a lady in the history of the word. "Hey, don't go to prom with Trump, he was super-mean to your BFF! Come to prom with me, baby, I'm not Trump.")

      Yeah, I'll have more fun if I go stag. Thanks though.

      It's really unfortunate. Honestly I think Biden is an empty suit at this point, and his young staff performs miserably on the ideological Turing test. They can't understand why people support Haley on the merits, making them incapable of crafting a message that would appeal to more libertarian-ish independents and those who were actually enthusiastic about Haley.

      Bless them, they just can't put themselves in anyone else's shoes (or, you know, mind). They think not being Trump is enough and can't understand disagreement with that point. My guess is these young progs will keep telling us Biden isn't Trump and being mystified when it doesn't work.

      That's the price of demanding ideological purity. They can't appeal to us on policy because they cannot fathom supporting any policy favored by moderates and independents. For all the talk of Trump surrounding himself with unaccountable loyalist and that being justification for selecting Biden, gotta say I'm not impressed with the folks Biden has selected either.

      The only way Biden gets my vote is if he cancels my student loan. I have half a mil in debt now, most of that interest that accrued because I had a hard time getting my career off the ground after law school (which I wisely attended beginning in the banner year of 2008). I oppose student loan forgiveness and would prefer that we allow it to be discharged in bankruptcy, but for some reason that gets people really exercised and mad at me.

      You want to take me to the prom, Joe? Okay, but it's going to cost $465k.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Stephanie

        I could be wrong. But during the whole debate about student loan forgiveness, I thought I learned that they cannot, in fact be discharged in bankruptcy, and that is part of the problem.

        I have no idea why people are so angry about student loan forgiveness, when some of the same people are quite fine with tax policies that allow corporations to get away without paying any income tax at all. That isn’t very fair is it?

        When the little guy gets a break, I don’t see anything to get angry about. It doesn’t matter that I did not get the same break.

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        1. J. Walter Weatherman

          "...tax policies that allow corporations to get away without paying any income tax at all."

          This is a myth, debunked many times over. I wish people would stop saying this so casually. Of course corporations pay no INCOME tax, because they aren't people. They pay CORPORATE tax. I think there are few, if any, corporations in the US that pay $0 in corporate tax.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Stephanie

            No myth, sad to say.

            26 Fortune 500 companies paid no taxes for 3 years

            https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/business/economy/zero-corporate-tax.html?unlocked_article_code=1.i00.oC2T.jxp0Vna9e4Ku&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&ugrp=c&sgrp=c-cb

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        2. Anna K. Gorisch

          You're correct. Congress did that in the 1970s and my mother still talks about how baffled she was at the time. The fear was that every doc and lawyer would show up at bankruptcy court in their cap and gown. I've been pushing gently for bankruptcy relief (longer explanation below) because targeted, surgical relief is preferable to blanket forgiveness.

          Also, many don't know that forgiveness already happens on a large scale via income-driven repayments. The loan TimB thinks he isn't currently paying? He absolutely is. I know people whose income is so low their monthly payment is $0 so they pay nothing for 20 years and then the entire thing is forgiven. Payments I make don't even dent the interest.

          We may not agree on a lot of things, but you know what? We agree here and I'd like to just note that. I'm not your enemy, and you aren't mine. If we could get through the initial yelling about Trump and Biden, maybe more of us could find areas of agreement on policy. I'm not as concerned about tax policy (that's at least in part because I gloss over when it comes to finance), but I can respect that you are.

          It isn't so hard. And you and I can both call our reps and ask that they push for discharge of student loans in bankruptcy. I want that so much and not just for myself. A bankruptcy is truly punishing, so it's likely that only those who really need help will seek it. Some can pay. Heck, if they'd just reduce it to what I actually borrowed I might be able to pay. Unfortunately under my current circumstances, this debt means I will never own a home. I didn't dare have children for fear of financial difficulty. My debt-to-income ratio is completely nuts. And when that balance is finally forgiven, it's likely to be about a million dollars, and as an added bonus, the IRS will treat the forgiven balance as income, so my income tax for that year may exceed my total income for the year. It really is a problem for some people.

          Next time you see a comment of mine and it annoys you, please remember this and know that I'm not really much of a partisan, though I love to talk policy. If more people can engage in good faith, we might just get through the next election.

          Happy Eclipse Day!

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      2. TimB

        Pay your own bills. Don't ask me to.

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        1. Anna K. Gorisch

          Are you one of the people who insists on voting Biden to stop Trump? Because whether you like it or not, they have a proposed rule ready using a different basis in statute to engage in much broader forgiveness than originally planned. I mean, can there really be no upside for me if it's all going to collapse anyway?

          Honestly I would prefer discharge in bankruptcy. It isn't my fault that the federal government decided to guarantee the loans and cover their butts by making them ineligible for bankruptcy relief. It's a magic loan - literally the only other thing that you cannot discharge via bankruptcy is taxes. (Minor exception for child support as well.)

          I'm using my real name here and admitting how much my debt is because there's a misperception that everyone in hot water with student loans is a lazy privileged liberal with a Masters in Gender Studies or whatever. That isn't true - some of us really are drowning in loans we took in good faith and with good reason to believe it would pay off. When I enrolled at Georgetown, the common wisdom was that Georgetown grads waltzed into big firm jobs. I enrolled in 2008, so the common wisdom quickly changed. My plan was to get that big firm job, suck it up for a few years and pay off the loan, then possibly move on to a more sustainable way to practice. Many law school grads do this, and had circumstances not drastically changed while I was in law school, that would have been the likely outcome. (My timing has always been terrible.) And my debt is now more than double what I actually borrowed.

          Why is it that I could run up massive credit card debt on luxury goods I can't afford and have it discharged via bankruptcy (also an unsecured loan), but my student loans for my law degree are sacred? Not everything is foreseeable, and I don't fully understand why we find forgiveness for everything but that. The economy crashed, the legal market was decimated, and technology made it possible for big firms to hire much smaller first-year classes than before. Bankruptcy is no picnic; only those who really need it will pursue it. Blanket forgiveness is insane. Targeted relief is appropriate.

          Finally, I'm not the one asking you to. Joe Biden is. And under income-drive repayment plans, many loans are ultimately forgiven and that's been going on since 2009. It's something the government already does.

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      3. Avatar photo
        Anne W (Raw5254)

        I’m Haley supporter, too. Even though it didn’t matter, I voted for her in the primaries here, in Wisconsin.

        I listen to a lot of podcasts, and sometimes I forget which one said what. I think it was on the last Dispatch podcast that Mike Drucker said part of the problem is this young staff knows Biden isn’t going anywhere; he’s too old. He’s not going to further their careers, so they’re heading in directions that seem more feasible for them. Plus, young people are often overly idealistic. It starts with “Why do we have wars? We should be nice to each other.” Over time, they figure it out, but it sure can take awhile! I think it was Jonah who said Biden should have fired the trouble makers, and maybe it was him or someone else who said Biden’s old, and probably too tired to deal with them.

        I don’t envy him. It’s got to be a really difficult and stressful job. Yet, I don’t understand why he couldn’t have worked with Democrats to find his replacement. People will say that Harris would have automatically gotten it, but I’m not so sure. He’s not doing well in the polls, so now he’s fumbling his way along, trying to figure out who he needs to suck up to for votes.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Stephanie

          Hi Anne,

          Obviously you and I don’t listen to the same podcasts. And probably we don’t read the same political reporting either

          So I find it interesting that there seems to be this line of talk on the right about Biden’s young staffers. I don’t know how true it is since I never read anything about it or hear anything about it. It could be just a right wing talking point.

          Right wing pundits can sometimes be very convincing. But I wonder if there’s really anything to any of this.

          Biden may have young staffers. But I doubt that he is letting any youngsters tell him what to do. From what I read, he’s the one making all the decisions. He may even be some thing of a micromanager.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Anne W (Raw5254)

            All I can tell you, Stephanie is that I subscribe to TD for a reason, and it’s not to hear a simple right-wing view of things. I mostly listen to Dispatch podcasts, and I believe that it might have been the one from last week, on Friday. But, why wouldn’t your sources be questionable, too? Maybe both sides exaggerate? Or maybe there’s some truth in both observations.

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        2. Anna K. Gorisch

          I don't envy him either, but he did ask for this. In reality none of us really knows who's making the calls in the Biden White House, which is disconcerting.

          My Dad sometimes says that if you aren't liberal when you're young, you have no heart. If you don't become more conservative with age, you have no head. There's some truth to that. Your war example is a good one. Mine is usually, "Everyone should have the very best health insurance. It's not fair." At some point we're all mugged by reality. It's always fun to see a teenager open their first paycheck.

          Maybe that's one of the reasons that the wealthy are now so liberal. They can keep the idealism because they don't have to think about where their health insurance will come from. I have a half-sister who married very well, and she and her husband are extremely liberal. She used to proclaim that her taxes were too low and that she was a high tax person. Then I was visiting one Christmas, and over breakfast she and her husband openly discussed whether or not they should buy a new SUV before the end of the year because then they could write it off as a business expense. Even those "high tax" people aren't really. Every last one of them employs an army of attorneys and accountants to ensure they pay as little as possible. Idealism is a luxury.

          As much as we all want to be mad at the GOP (which has absolutely beclowned itself), the DNC really should have pushed Biden aside and allowed a real primary. Had they done so, I don't think we'd be in this mess. And Harris would be welcome to run alongside anyone else and let the voters decide.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Stephanie

            There is a “real primary” going on.

            There are challengers, and none of them is getting above single digits.

            Governors and other well known Democratic politicians made the choice to bide their time for 2028.

            And the DNC doesn’t “push Biden aside.” He’s their leader. And they probably are not worried. They have access to better information than you have. You are basing your opinions on what is being said by his political opponents, after all: de rigueur Biden-bashing.

            There’s no way to know how this election will shake out. But I have lost faith in top-down pundit pronouncements that end up being parroted endlessly only to be proven wrong by events. Especially those from movement conservatives.

            I personally find focus group results to be much more illuminating of what motivates the electorate.

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            Anne W (Raw5254)

            I tend to agree with you. I sometimes wonder if being wealthy involves a certain amount of guilt, but only a certain amount. It’s very easy to tell everyone else what we should do when you, personally, don’t have to deal with it. And, I’m sorry to say, but your half sister comes off as very crass to me. My husband and I are doing better than my brother and his family, and I would never think of saying anything about our finances.

            Anyway, I’ve enjoyed reading what you have to say, especially as someone who is very disillusioned when it comes to both parties.

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    2. Avatar photo
      Cheerio

      Actually, if these people complaining about the border were to look at the actual numbers, they would see that Biden's DHS has been better at apprehensions, detentions and deportations than Trump was (and so was Obama).

      Trump was also horrible dealing with the Pandemic and we lost a lot of lives in this country, more than we lost in our double perm-a-war with Bush. Biden's administration was amazing at getting the nation vaccinated despite political opposition. Obviously no one is perfect but my choice is to reject the insurrectionist and the man who pledges to add a 10% tax on all imports (including food, including from Mexico and Canada) in order to fund more corporate tax breaks (which sucked for the American voter the first time). Trump also pledges to remove that insulin discount so if you are diabetic and enjoying that $35/month insulin... better stock up. Trump pledges to bring it back up to $70+/month.

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        Anne W (Raw5254)

        I kept thinking about this, and wondering how it is that Biden “has been better at apprehensions, detentions and deportations,” and yet it seems so much worse. But, it didn’t occur to me to check on the number of people crossing our borders, which is much higher than when Trump was in office (again, I’m not defending Trump). You might have other sources, but this is one I found (and I’ll note that it is an opinion piece):

        https://thehill.com/opinion/4423296-matthews-illegal-immigrants-double-under-biden-and-thats-just-the-start/

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        Anne W (Raw5254)

        I looked for information on “illegal immigrant” crossings, and I’m still not sure I understand it. I’ll include a link from CATO Institute, which confirms what you said about Biden, but it’s still difficult for me to grasp. I’m not arguing with you, but it does seem a lot worse. I know that there has been a high influx of non-English speaking children in schools. I know that there are hospitals who claim they can’t keep up. Why didn’t we hear those things when Trump was in office (and believe me, I’m not defending him!)?

        The entire pandemic was a mess, but Trump didn’t help. Even though a vaccine was created while he was in office, he didn’t seem to give it much, if any, support. I feel as though he encouraged some of the craziness during that time, but I think everyone was frightened and confused.

        Here’s the link I mentioned:

        https://www.cato.org/blog/new-data-show-migrants-were-more-likely-be-released-trump-biden

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  8. Sai Ayila

    Karl rove said it the best on ari melbers show, Anyone who campaigns on pardoning Jan 6 rioters should never become a president he expects Dems to run on that. Not does trump should become a president he is convicted of a felony. Trump has already pardoned many of his cronies who were convicted of federal crimes Steve bannon Dinesh D'Souza, al pirro etc etc you can read https://apnews.com/article/steve-bannon-trump-pardons-broidy-66c82f25134735e742b2501c118723bb

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      Cheerio

      If Menendez gets convicted, which I hope and pray he does... you know a newly elected Trump will pardon him.

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  9. Tla

    Incumbency is the weight hanging on Biden. In 2020, moderates could hope he would be the uniter that he touted himself to be while progressives could hang their hat on all the young staffers he had employed and folks he had promised to appoint.

    Today both factions are disappointed. Trump on the other hand is 4 years out of office , and memory fades. Many of the people who chose to vote Biden 4 years now forget that they were just really always just voting against Trump.

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  10. Kittcomm

    The question: why does Biden keep up the progressive agenda so faithfully? Either he’s a true believer or he’s stupid. After all, how many progressives are there vs. the number of gettable moderates? Where would they go? Not Trump. I’ve concluded that yes, he is a progressive true believer, and yes, he’s not very smart.

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