What Does The Deep-Freeze Turnout Mean for Iowa?

A low-turnout caucus? I’m in love.

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Snow covers half the face of former President Abraham Lincoln's statue at the Iowa State Capitol building on January 9, 2024, in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

CLEAR LAKE, Iowa—The mother of all Iowa caucuses was the Democratic contest in 2008, when an estimated 240,000 folks came out for the showdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

That was nearly 100,000 more than the number who showed up four years earlier on the Democratic side, which we thought at the time was a pretty dramatic contest, what with the “Dean Scream” and all that.

But even at nearly a quarter-million participants, we should remember that Obama’s victory year was still small compared to a regular general election. Even if you add in the 119,188 Republicans who came out for the contest between Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and John McCain, you’re still only at about a quarter of the turnout for a typical general election here.

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  1. Malcolmnanji

    Chris: today's column/article/newsfest is why I, a Canadian with neither horse in the race, dog in the fight, nor syrup in the (Quebec) maple tree, subscribe to The Dispatch. Kudos.

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  2. Hikingguy

    Lowry has a piece up at NR. Jack Smith is an "arsonist". Not Trump. I knew that limp sod would roll over for Trump tummy rubs. NR is crap. Lowry is a coward.

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      Ben Connelly

      Why do pay money to subscribe then?

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      Paul Hoover

      I disagree with your characterizations. I found that article to be thought-provoking and insightful.

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    Floyd Katz

    Axios has a piece about Never Trumpers, Dems and Independents crossing over and voting for Haley in Iowa on Monday.

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    Donald E. L. Johnson, Florida

    If you dress warmly, cold weather isn't that bad. 60 years ago, I was in Ames, and I'm wearing my 64-year-old winter sweater today in honor of the Iowa winters.

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    Trevor Reid

    “ This will certainly be the coldest caucus since 2004.”

    You describe the low in 2004 as being 2 deg. The predicted low Monday morning is predicted to be -14 deg. The predicted high is about 1 degree.. That’s considerably more cold (and dangerous). With the wind chill, the “feels like” high is expected to be about -20 deg. Add to that about a foot of snow in most of the state…well all I can say is stay safe.

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    Normb1442

    A recent article noted that while supporters of both parties tend to view the economy as doing well only when their guy is in the White House, Republicans are much more extreme about this than Democrats. The numbers are that Republicans view the current economy as about as awful as it was in 2008, while Democrats, when Trump was in office, also thought it was doing worse than it actually was but by much narrower margins. I think this goes a long way to explain why Biden's favorability numbers look so bad. Most Democrats I know think Biden has done OK but without much enthusiasm, whereas the Republicans I know think foam at the mouth about him.

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    ReneFerrerJr

    Dude, you're awesome. Appreciate you being there for us. Respect.

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  8. Acasilaco

    That NYT article about Adm. Byrd's flag was fascinating.

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    C C Writer

    All right, I found the best statement in this whole piece. And it should be made into the preamble for The Dispatch's mission statement:

    "Our biggest current problem is that our culture, government, and political system doesn’t work. Our Congress, parties, news media, and the presidency itself have malfunctioned in an era of technological and social upheaval and can’t deliver the goods that voters need in order to deal with power-hungry demagogues in the way they should. . . . The urgent work for Americans of goodwill now is to shore up these battered institutions, to bring healing where there has been harm. . . . What will matter for the next three generations is whether Americans of today can mend the tattered places."

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  10. Rolfdogg

    Finding an opportunity to reference Buddy Holly in political prose is top notch, but to reference one of his deepest cuts (from The Apartment Tapes recorded around six weeks before he died) and tie it all out is a Chef's Kiss. Brilliant!!

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    1. Acasilaco

      Thank you so much for mentioning this. I had never heard "Learning the Game" before, but your comment prompted me to look it up. New-to-me Buddy Holly music is by far the highlight of my day.

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