The Sweep: The Takeaway From Youngkin’s Win in Virginia

Plus, how the pandemic shaped the election.

By and
69

The Facts

Virginia

  • Republican Glenn Youngkin beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe 51 percent-to 49 percent.

  • Lt. Gov.-elect Winsome Sears has a fantastic name and will be the first woman to hold the job. She’s a Jamaican immigrant, former Marine, and was the director of a Salvation Army homeless shelter prior to entering politics. 

  • Republicans also appear to have won the six seats they needed to flip the Virginia House of Delegates.

Start a Free Trial
Get every newsletter and all of The Dispatch. Support quality, fact-based journalism. Get Started ALREADY HAVE AN ACCOUNT? SIGN IN
69
By and
Comments (69)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Mary Schubert

    I just read this today and agree it's the best analysis I've read on the November 2nd election events. Thank you!

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    I’m just upset that my absentee ballot never came, so I didn’t get to vote! I was legitimately going to write in Denver Riggleman! I’m kicking myself - it’s my fault for not ordering it earlier. Oh well, I guess it’s fitting with the stereotype of the dumb late-Millennial who can’t vote because absentee ballots are too hard (ie what are stamps…?). Then again I was able to vote absentee from a foreign country but apparently when I’m stateside I forget that Virginia elections are the first week of November, not the last. Oh well, Denver and Sasquatch will have to be the shadow cabinet.

    Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    The Stray Goose

    "Critical race theory wasn’t irrelevant to this race. And it was a dog whistle to a lot of parents. But it’s not obvious to me that the whistle was about race or even race-based curriculum." This doesn't make any sense. And what follows after this doesn't help to explain it. CRT was a 'racist dog whistle' to a lot of parents - who then voted in a black, female Lt Gov. It's bad enough when the Democrats call me a racist, I sure as hell don't like it when the Dispatch staff does it.

    And I'm sure you'll say, 'No, no, no, I'm not calling you a racist." And I'm sure your not. I'm also sure that paragraph is a mess.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photocircle-angle-nib
      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      I think you misunderstood. My point was that it was NOT a race-based dog whistle. But it was a dog whistle. It was a short hand way for a candidate to signal that he understand their frustration with what was happening with curriculum.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        The Stray Goose

        Ok. I understand. Thank you. I just only hear the term 'dog whistle' used in regards to race which is why I was confused.

        Collapse
  4. Brook

    Outstanding analysis!

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    BrettH

    Enjoyed the read, thanks y'all. Democrats getting out over their ideological skis? Say it ain't so....
    The proud tradition of both parties trying to overplay their policy hand continues apace.

    Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    Pat Riot

    The bottom line is that in VA and NJ, the GOP candidates ran good campaigns and the Democrats ran lousy ones.

    McAuliffe pulled a "basket of deplorables" gaffe when he said no, parents shouldn't dictate curriculum: he was technically correct but the way he answered it was really bad politics and opened the door for the Republicans to demagogue the issue.

    All he had to answer was, "of course parents should work with their local school boards and teachers and bla bla bla" and the issue would have evaporated. And this is in a year where everything to do with schools necessarily sucks because of COVID.

    As for the hot takes on the future, both the VA and NJ governors have gone against the president's party every single time since Reagan (Biden being the first to hold one of them since), so this is hardly a catastrophe for Democrats.

    So this is politics as usual in the USA. And *that* is the terrible tragedy of what happened on Tuesday: Republicans have formally declared themselves as the party of insurrection, of abolishing our constitutional order, of overturning democracy fueled by a lie believed by almost four out of five of their voters and... it's business as usual. The two GOP governor candidates were able to position themselves as the same sort of politicians that the GOP had when Mitt Romney topped the ticket nine years ago.

    There's an old saying in business: "money talks and bullshit walks". In politics this phrase translates thus: "if it wins it's true, and if it loses it's false".

    Trump endorsed Youngkin and Trump campaign for him, as did Trump surrogates ("Make General Lee proud and vote!" said one of them). And Youngkin exists in Trump's party, and he would have absolutely no political career without Trump's approval.

    However, Youngkin was able to keep Trump out of the non-base aspect of his campaign while doubling down on Trump within the base. For every Republican politician watching Virginia, *that* is the take-away and *that* is the pathway to winning in swing states and swing districts.

    And the take-away for Trump and those who do *not* exist in swing districts is: Republicans were able to sack the US Capitol on 1/6 and they paid... zero political price as a party. The most logical thing to do in that scenario is to do what Trump did every single time Republicans exonerated him and whitewashed his actions before: double-down and step up the violence to the next level because there's no downside and only upside.



    Collapse
    1. David B.

      Actually though, I think the KEY to Yougkin's win was being endorsed by Trump but him not "endorsing Trump." That allowed Youngkin to walk the tightrope. Two interesting facets to this:
      1. If history holds, this was an anomaly from Trump. He normally requires almost weekly kissing of the ring from a candidate who wants his endorsement. It gets really horrible when two R candidates are competing to win his endorsement. So I'm not sure this will happen again.
      2. Why this anomaly from Trump? Why would he continue to back Youngkin when he's NOT invited to campaign alongside or appear in ads or anything?? Makes me wonder if Trump realized that there was the potential for him to become less relevant in the big picture if this super high visibility election ended up with a non-Trump backed candidate winning. That seems a little too perceptive for Trump, but why else this anomaly?

      Great write-up!

      Collapse
    2. Mathew A

      "both the VA and NJ governors have gone against the president's party every single time since Reagan"

      Actually McAuliffe won VA governor in 2013 I believe when Obama was in office.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Victor Clairmont

        Yes.

        Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    Alex Fordney

    I found this quote hilarious because I initially attributed it to Stirewalt: “ Jonah is more in favor of cigar smoke-filled back rooms with party bosses than I am—the big difference, I think, being how many times our butts would be touched if we were ever invited into such a room.”

    Collapse
  8. Anonymous

    Collapse
    1. Mathew A

      Yep, we are home schooling. I want my kids to be educated, not indoctrinated into whatever is the latest woke fashion. How many genders are there again now, 37?

      Not to mention we do about 300 days of school instead of the 180ish they do in public schools.

      Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Deb4711

      I respectfully disagree with the assertion that parents can “always” choose another option than sending their children to a local public school. Home schooling and private/parochial schools make demands on parents’ financial and other resources that many families may not be in a position to meet.

      Collapse
      1. Mathew A

        Agreed. That's why we need full school choice. The dollars should follow the child.

        Collapse
        1. Anonymous

          Collapse
          1. Mathew A

            I'll start with the caveat that this is only our second year. My daughter is just about to turn 7. And my son is only 4.5

            Overall it's been a pretty good experience. My daughter was reading before 5. And is very much picking up her parents love of reading. For example, we've already read through things like Charlie and the Chocolate factory together. Now she's doing Harry Potter's first book with her mom.

            She's also already doing multiplication. Most things she picks up pretty quick. But if there's something she's struggling with, then we just spend more time on that.

            In particular the ability to tailor things to her needs is really great. For example, when we started out, we would have her do her school work in the morning before she could play. But it was a struggle. So we tried something else. She gets to play with her brother early in the day, and then when he goes down for a nap (say 3 to 4 in the afternoon) she does her school work.

            That way she's able to burn some energy and doesn't feel like she's missing out.

            Later when her brother starts school at 5, maybe we change things again. I'm not sure, but we have the flexibility to find out what works for us.

            The other big thing is we are doing WAY more school. We shoot for about 300ish days of instruction instead of the 180 at a public school. We do 5 days a week of the work books, and then on Saturday a book report to switch things up.

            The only holidays off are the major holidays (ie Christmas etc) but you get the day off, not weeks or the whole summer.

            We've found that keeping to a schedule greatly really helps keep her in the right mind set. And you don't have to worry about forgetting things from too much time off.

            As for socialization, our plan is to do stuff with the local church and home school groups. Although with COVID that's been difficult so far. We do try and do outdoor trips to the local park on a regular basis.

            So far we are learning at 1.5x to 2x the normal public school speed. I think a reasonable target is 1.5x given the additional instruction time.

            Note that's pretty similar to what you see at elite private schools.

            Currently we are doing the Horizon workbooks, mixed in with "180 days workbooks"

            Side note, my wife and I both have our MBA's. And my wife used to be a teacher for a bit. But I don't think you need that to do a good job.

            There's just a ton of resources out there now. But you definitely have to put in more work as the parents.

            Collapse
      2. Anonymous

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Deb4711

          Understood! Thank you for the clarification.

          Collapse
  9. Andrew M

    "Democratic efforts to use the calamity of the financial panic of 2008 and ensuing recession to remake major swaths of American life ended up much the same way. When voters were still overwhelmingly worried about jobs and the economy, Democrats pivoted to universal health insurance. When Republicans racked up wins in Virginia and New Jersey, they stayed at it. When a Republican won a special election for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in Massachusetts, they passed the massive bill on a procedural maneuver anyway. The result in the following midterms was as predictable as it was dire for Democrats."

    That is a factually correct statement. However, while the short term impact (the following election) was dire for the Democrats, Republicans never had an alternative, and Republican efforts to remove the ACA once they had a majority in Congress and the White House resulted in flipping the House of Representatives to Democrats in 2018 once people had been living with the ACA for eight years. Democrats will look at that and say the long term societal benefits outweigh the short term political pain as a way to justify their current pie-in-the-sky wish list of reforms.

    Collapse
  10. Jim

    It’s interesting to read these articles on election analysis…and I like the group The Dispatch…...I think the Trumpers and the Never Trumpers had to come together to win this one.

    But to be fair, you all were the ones that decided to be “Never Trump” no matter who or how far left the Democrats went. That move gave The House over to a very far leftist bunch and now own the Democratic party…..money and support and that is not going away. If anything, it will only get worse because they have nowhere to go.

    People chose Biden because they thought he would just be that old “creature of the senate” a moderate working with both side…..you see that’s not happening.

    We will see what 2022 brings because every election cycle is different. At least Pres. Trump pushed his supporters to go out there and support the Republican ticket.

    Collapse
    1. David B.

      Yeah. I was never Trump, not never Republican. I, amd I imagine millions like me voted for someone other than Trump for president (3rd party here) and nearly all Republicans down the ticket. That is why Rs gained seats in the house and would have the Senate if Trump and his minions had not sabotaged the GA election with all the "your votes won't be counted but please go vote anyway" BS.

      And yeah, I didn't vote for a treasonous insurrectionist. Any negatives that come with that I will proudly accept. You're welcome.

      Collapse
    2. Raincheck

      I must have missed all the pieces at the Dispatch promoting Biden.

      And I must have missed Trump promoting the Republican ticket I the Georgia runoff.

      Collapse
    3. Avatar photo
      David Burke

      Biden is a creature of the senate and IS working with both sides. Just at the moment it is with both sides of the Democrats in congress. The Republicans refuse to…I don’t even know what the Republicans do anymore.

      Same with the ACA. Republicans didn’t engage then either except to just say no and holler a lot.

      Collapse
Load More