The Sweep: Was Trump Good for the GOP?

Plus, the off-off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

By and
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Campaign Quick Hits

Redistricting Reality Bites: Republicans need only five seats to flip the House of Representatives. And the results of the census are expected to create 10 new congressional seats. Of the 10, eight will most likely be in GOP-controlled states—one in North Carolina, Arizona, and Montana, two in Florida, and three in Texas. With some decent map-drawing that isn’t enjoined by a court, Republicans could pick up five or six seats just for showing up. On the other hand, “six of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump are from states expected to lose congressional seats.” And the former president is taking the opportunity to lobby for those districts to be cannibalized by neighboring Trump-loyal Republicans or even Democrats, resulting in a net loss of six GOP-held seats. If the former president gets his way, it could make reapportionment a wash (or even a net loss) for Republicans and it will also mean six fewer Trump-skeptical voices in the GOP House caucus.

Ohio Is For Lovers: After Sen. Rob Portman announced his retirement in January, the next class of Senate wannabes wasted no time staking out their turf. The first to jump in the race was Josh Mandel, the former state treasurer, who first ran for Senate in 2012 and lost by 6 points to the incumbent, Sherrod Brown. In his first fundraising email he touted that he was “President Trump’s #1 ally in Ohio,” promises to keep “fighting RINO’s and establishment politicians,” and that he is “AGAINST the radical Left’s attempts to destroy our nation.” Most recently, he confirmed on Twitter that “America was founded & grew strong on a bedrock of Judeo-Christian values Flag of United States; Not radical Muslim values.” Some are quick to point out when the word “ambition” is used as a weapon against female candidates (and it is!), but I would wager that it is a word that will be included in every profile of Mandel. The big money on the right, however, has a different horse: This week, former Trump-backers—tech billionaire Peter Thiel and the Mercer family—donated millions to a super PAC supporting Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance in the race.

How to Lose a Governor’s Race in 10 Months: Y’all, I try to keep an unbiased, non-partisan voice in this newsletter but I cannot contain my excitement at the prospect of Matthew McConaughey throwing his 10-gallon hat into the Texas gubernatorial race. On the one hand, we have a perfectly respectable history of sending actors to governors’ mansions (Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, even …  Jesse Ventura!) but this is the post-Trump era and the whole tenor of celebrity-as-politician has changed. Megan Markle, the erstwhile Duchess of Sussex, is supposedly (note: The sourcing on this could charitably be described as ‘thin’) considering a run for presiden t… of America. And Dwayne Johnson said last month that he “would consider a presidential run in the future if that’s what the people wanted.” But back to that guy from the Lincoln car commercials: He has a lot of history with the state. At the moment, it’s hard to say whether his current toe-dipping is more about getting some free publicity for his “We’re Texas” virtual concert and fundraiser on March 21, which will feature lots of other great Texans like Willie Nelson, Don Henley, Gary Clark Jr., Miranda Lambert, Lyle Lovett, George Strait, Leon Bridges, Kelly Clarkson, and Texas-raised Post Malone. Or whether he just wants to find a new use for his famous tagline and run against the “alt-right, alt-right, alt-right.”

2024 Watch—Rubio Edition: While GOP Sens. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley have been dominating the 2024 headlines, Sen. Marco Rubio is trying to find a lane of his very own. Last week, Rubio made “wait, Republicans are in favor of what now?” headlines when he “voiced his support for a union-organizing drive at an Amazon.com Inc. warehouse in Alabama, accusing the e-commerce giant of waging a culture war that hurts its workers and the economy.” Republicans as the party of union workers fits quite comfortably with the rhetoric of the post-Trump GOP but quite uncomfortably with the decades of right-to-work legislation that Republicans have been pushing at the state level and conservative legal groups that have been chipping away at union rights.  (Some of these folks are literally arguing another case at the Supreme Court next week.)

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  1. Curtis Jensen

    Matthew Mcaugneuvgejdhv could probably win if he replayed his 2008 Rose Bowl cameo over and over and over again on TV. That state would trade their 2nd amendment rights for a governor who campaigned on 4 years of college football dominance.

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    The Stray Goose

    I continue to see a confusion between Donald Trump and the Trump voter. The concerns that Trump voters have are legitimate (immigration, China, out-of-control bureaucracy etc). Trump was just the worst person to speak to those issues. A politician who can address those issues without being a babbling like an idiot will do well.

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      Kmregan7

      There were politicians who could address those issues in the 2016 primary. The voters chose the worst person to speak to those issues.

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        The Stray Goose

        The other Republicans didn't, though. I didn't understand why they decided to mock Trump instead of commandeer his topics. I don't think they had any respect for the members of their own party.

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          Kmregan7

          Mocking Trump was easier. Respect (or at least civility) is something that seems to have been lost across the board on both sides (which explains, at least in part, Biden's appeal even if you believe it was all lip service)

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  3. learnin4life

    LOL, "some decent map-drawing that isn’t enjoined by a court". Gerrymander much? The technique is equally present in either party's playbook, which makes a better case for legislation to restrict its use.

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    Clifford from WA

    Very interesting stuff today!

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    Phil H

    In Ohio, Josh Mandel was an inept campaigner against Democrat Sherrod Brown in the 2012 Senate race. Mandel started a run against Brown's re-election in 2018, but dropped out claiming his wife had an illness requiring his care. He later divorced his wife, which struck me as odd -- what was the real reason he dropped out then?

    And that doesn't even touch Mandel's Trump-pandering, which is opportunistic to say the very least. Not that his potential GOP primary opponents are not Trump supporters as well. At least, so far.

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    JohnM.

    Another excellent Sweep! The phrase "--especially Republicans in their current mode of Jacobin populist bloodlust—" will stick with me. Thanks, folks!

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    Pat Riot

    J.D. Vance is the man Twitter Democrats and Silicon Valley libertarians *think* is, "somebody who can speak the language of the unwashed MAGAs"., but I suspect the real MAGA types will see him for the blow-dried poser that he is. Once the racist dogwhistles will come out, J.D. won't be able to follow the other candidates there--or he will look ridiculous trying. The mob vets its capos by making them do a hit and Trump's base does it this way. RonJon gets this, for instance.

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      Phil H

      There are rumors Vance will run for Portman's Ohio Senate seat, but only rumors so far. So everyone can put away their "dogwhistles" for now. I always wondered how people recognize "dogwhistles" -- is mindreading actually a thing?

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      1. Mendicant Caligula

        Another thing you can do is listen to what the people to whom the dogwhistles are targeted say. Such as a white-supremacist neo-nazi saying “Tucker [Carlson] is helping mainstream conservatives change the way they think about politics and causing a massive swath of Trump voters to look deeper into issues that we already talk about. The left is aware of what he’s doing, and he’s aware of what he’s doing, so it works phenomenally.” If you don’t trust the left’s hearing and ask how they reached their conclusions, you may also wish to ask the white supremacists (or whoever) why they hear these same conclusions equally as clearly, and trust their word.

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          Phil H

          I dunno, maybe both the Left and the far Right are equally wrong about his intent?

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        Stephanie

        You don't have to be a mind reader to recognize dog whistles when politicians deploy them. And the people who want to hear them, hear them loud and clear.

        "Law and order" refers to supposed high crime rates among black people, who are supposed to be mostly criminal and in need of intensified policing.

        "Welfare queens" is a reference to people who cheat on welfare; usually people automatically picture black people in this role.

        "War on terror" refers to the evil darker skinned foreigners in the Middle East who inspire Islamophobia and "Muslim bans"--not the right wing white supremacists in our own country who are actually the biggest terror threat.

        Even "cutting taxes" is an oblique way of referring to cutting welfare benefits and other safety net programs, funded by taxes, which benefit the needy (who are thought to be undeserving freeloaders).

        I'm old enough to remember George Wallace and "states' rights." Meaning, don't mess with segregation because it's something an individual state can decide is the right thing for it (like Georgia now creating extremely restrictive voting laws that'll reduce the black vote, so Republicans can win more elections--and why HR 1 is so very evil).

        "Bad hombres" was one of Donald Trump's ways of demonizing immigrants from Mexico or Central America.

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          Sad Trombone

          Law and Order also appeals to the Black conservatives Sarah was writing about, who are massively, disproportionately, the victims of violent crime.
          Welfare queens refer not to "cheaters" but those that reorganize their lives to take advantage of welfare benefits by deliberately having children with no father figure. You should hear older Black men discuss this issue in a barber shop away from cameras and microphones - you'd think you were at a MAGA hootenanny.
          Keep eye rolling, wokester, at the dog whistles, and you'll be able to be disappointed in America for decades to come.

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          1. Brett C

            Doesn't your comment about black men in the barber shop prove the point? Your mind goes to black people, black people's minds go to black people, everyone's mind goes to black people when the term welfare queen is used.

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          Phil H

          "And the people who want to hear them, hear them loud and clear"

          That seems to be key. That reflects the biases of the hearers, not the speaker. Several of those terms have no clear association with racism. And none of them (with the possible exception of Wallace and "state's rights" has an essential tie to racism.

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            Stephanie

            They have "no clear association" but all you have to have is implication.

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            Pat Riot

            Speakers like RonJon say what they say because he knows the racists in his audience will know what he's talking about. That's why he does this, why Trump did it, and so on.

            Any of us here could go on the radio and start spitting out racist dogwhistles and know exactly what we are doing. It's not very clever.

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        Pat Riot

        I guess Republicans don't really use them anymore. RonJon can just say the quiet part aloud and nobody in his party cares and it probably helps him with his voting base.

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          Phil H

          I don't care about Ron Johnson or Trump supporters. But I really am curious how one *knows* (as opposed to merely *thinks*) a statement is a "dogwhistle". Without *knowing*, that term becomes simply a lazy accusation.

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            Stephanie

            Perhaps observing what are the applause lines at a Trump rally?

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            Pat Riot

            Well, that's the whole point, isn't it?

            It's like Tony Soprano saying, "I think you should.... go see him". The person he's talking to knows exactly what he means but it (presumably) doesn't stand up in a court of law.

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    Jen

    So Shor’s basic thesis is Trump was good for Republicans because they traded reliable college educated suburban voters for unreliable non-college educated working class voters? That seems whack to me. The other thing is Donald Trump and the Republican Party are not the same thing. We have yet to see any solid evidence that Republicans can turn out these voters when Trump isn’t on the ballot. They didn’t do it in 2018 or in the runoff elections in Georgia. In addition there is little evidence these people were voting on specific policies like minimum wage or child subsidies. I need to see Republicans win an election cycle without Trump on the ballot before I’m ready to believe the they have a new winning coalition.

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      Pat Riot

      By "good" I suspect he means votes, not any kind of value judgement.

      Trump may not be the "whole" Republican party but if he has a lock on even 40% of the GOP voting base then it will completely foul up the GOP operation.

      I personally think COVID gave Republicans an artificial bump among minority groups in 2020: they were the most likely to have lost their jobs based on shutdowns, and the Democrats largely (and correctly) got blamed for that.

      The Republicans need to win both without Trump *and* COVID on the ballot before you can all the new coalition a success.

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  9. Alex DeLarge

    The message of Shor's polling data seems to be that white SJWs are equally annoying to normal people of all races.

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    As much as I admire his choice of photo to adorn his official webpage as a Professor of Process in the Moody College of Communication at my alma mater, the University of Texas at Austin (link: https://moody.utexas.edu/faculty/matthew-mcconaughey), could we just please skip Gov. McConaughey and go straight to President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho?

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      Pat Riot

      Pres. Camacho ftw!

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      Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

      Ms. Isgur, you should definitely ask Mr. McConaughey for an interview to appear in TheDispatch.com. A good first question would be: "So if you were to run, please tell us whether you would run as a Republican or a Democrat?"

      He's declined so far to answer that question. Assuming he does again, you'd have the perfect setup to say:

      "Be a lot cooler if you did."

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        Richard Maxton

        Bill, all three of the comments are excellent, but this one right here - "be a lot cooler if you did." - this one I love you for. :D

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          Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

          Who can fail to imagine, vividly, the viral clip that would own the internet, for a time, after Ms. Isgur delivered this line in the interview? I am very confident she would nail it.

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            Richard Maxton

            I'd turn it into an NFT and make enough $$ to afford a few Dispatch live events. . .whenever it is we get that "normality" I've been promised.

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        And your follow-up question should be — not joking here — his position on the continued use of "The Eyes of Texas" as the University of Texas' school song.

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