Requiem for a Bet

It’s over. Is it over? It feels over.

By and
16

It’s over. Is it over? It feels over.

By and
Comments (16)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Avatar photo
    T.Kalbach

    I've developed a fair amount of respect for Sarah's views. But if I had to sum up where I disagree with her, it would be her phrase from this ep, "to quote the West Wing . . ."

    (and the best cream spinach is homemade and light on the cream)

    Collapse
  2. Austin from Atlanta

    Sarah, you say all voters are responsible for the outcome of the primaries because they either did or did not vote. Do you think this applies to the Republican voters in most states that did not have a candidate actively running against Trump by the time their state voted?

    Collapse
  3. William H.

    A few times during the High Steaks podcast and other places at TD, there's been reference to the "Actuarial Solution" to the problem of our unpopular candidates. I looked at the basic math on this, but I think it would be an interesting article to talk to actual actuaries about this. Given what we know about these two candidates (their ages, their health histories, their weights) what are the odds that they live the next four months, or the next four years? What are the odds that they go the next four months or four years without an incapacitating health event?

    Collapse
  4. Avatar photo
    Patterico

    Basically everything Sarah said in this episode was right and she was always going to win this bet. I just wish I knew Steve well enough to have made this bet with him first because I love free expensive steak and I would have made this bet in a heartbeat.

    Steve, I love you, but this respect for voters thing . . . I think you need to read more Nick Catoggio until you get that drummed out of you.

    And the whole idea that this choice has been foisted on America -- like: poor America, presented with this awful choice THAT THEY CHOSE TO HAVE. As Sarah said: these guys are the choice of the people who went to vote . . . and also the people who didn't, and left it up to the people who did. People are actually voting for both these guys in droves in the primaries.

    And it was always obvious they would. As Sarah says (because again: everything she says in this episode is right): your only hope is an act of God. The voters? They were *always* going to do this. Because . . . *whispers* . . .

    . . . .they are terrible.

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Anne W (Raw5254)

    Okay, the only thing that bothered me was saying that it’s the fault of the primary voters who didn’t get out to vote against Trump. I’m not sure what the percentages were in the states that did get to vote, but I’m in Wisconsin, and we don’t vote until April!! I was determined to get out to vote, but now it won’t make any difference. How many states are left? Nikki Haley’s home state should have supported her, and I have to think people made an effort to vote, but somehow Trump got it. Then we have states where winner takes all. I am one of those people who really dislikes the primaries, and these are a couple of the reasons why.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Patterico

      Wisconsin will vote the same way everyone else did.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Anne W (Raw5254)

        Trump has already won enough delegates that Wisconsin will not make a difference. If all the states voted at the same time, that would be different.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Patterico

          I understand feeling annoyed that your vote makes no difference. Until this year, as a California resident, I have always felt that way in primary season.

          Console yourself with these thoughts:

          1. As a Wisconsin resident, your vote will mean far more than that of most Americans, because of Wisconsin's status as a battleground state.

          2. Nevertheless, your vote will be essentially meaningless, as it will be cancelled out by the contrary votes of many, many, many people far less knowledgeable, reasonable, and intelligent than you.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Anne W (Raw5254)

            Yes, I am in a swing state, and I wish my primary vote would make a difference. I listened to Steve and Sarah talking, and both complained about how it’s the voters’ faults that Trump is winning because it’s a minority who are motivated enough to vote in the primaries. I can’t believe that there are so many of us who don’t want Trump on the ticket, yet aren’t interested in the primaries.

            How does this work? I’m guessing the parties have figured out which states will be most advantageous for them, and hell with the rest of us.

            Thanks for your thoughts.

            Collapse
  6. Zlakel

    Just an FYI, as of 3/10, this podcast hasn't appeared in the Skiff podcast feed.

    Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    Jonmckny

    You should really make this interesting by letting one lucky Dispatch member join the steak dinner.

    Collapse
    1. J. Mark Graham

      Absolutely seconded.

      Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Mike B

      Two steak dinners.

      Collapse
  8. Avatar photo
    Addicus

    "The narrative is accurate." Probably should have waited until after the SOTU speech to say that. I don't get the sense that Steve is the kind of guy that reassesses his prior very often.

    Collapse
  9. Kpmcmakin

    "The problem with the narrative in this case is that the narrative is accurate"
    Just what someone in the media pushing a narrative would say!

    Collapse
  10. Bigdonmck

    Hey Steve, fine job picking the presidential candidates. Can you tell me who will make it to The Final Four in NCAA basketball? I want to know who NOT to bet on. Thanks.

    Collapse