The Spoiler

Would an RFK independent run really hurt Trump more than Biden?

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a Hispanic Heritage Month event at Wilshire Ebell Theatre on September 15, 2023, in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

I’m suspicious of the congealing conventional wisdom that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would do more damage to Donald Trump as a third-party candidate than to Joe Biden.

Even though some of its proponents, like our own Chris Stirewalt, have forgotten more about politics than I’ll ever know.

What makes me suspicious is the delight I take in the prospect. I don’t care how Trump ends up losing so long as he loses, but to have him lose because a far-left nut ended up stealing the right-wing crank vote from him would be sweet beyond words. Live by the conspiracy theory, die by the conspiracy theory.

It might even ruin the inevitable “rigged election” spin that would follow. If Trump lost narrowly in swing states with Kennedy on the ballot, how hard would it really be for MAGA voters to believe that just enough anti-vaxxers switched from Republican to a third party?

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  1. TheRealAndy

    Re "horseshoe theory", the issue is everyone acting like political persuasion is one dimensional.

    I would graph people on a conservative-progressive axis, a populism axis, and a statist axis.

    We've got a bunch of bonkers populist statists with nominal conservative/progressive leanings. If plotting on multiple axes, these wackos are neighbors without relying on pac-man metaphysics.

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  2. Jon.Shelby

    What strikes me is the mix of terms between right wing and populist. The true right wing (conservative) vote won't swing to RFK Jr but the populist vote sure could it seems. The Populist is a monster of Trump's own making. Like him it doesn't have any real ideology. To me it seems perfectly conceivable that a good chunk of these populists are going to look at RFK Jr and think this guy is more Trump than Trump and vote for him.

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  3. Scianti7

    I try so hard not to lose faith. But reading this article sunk me with the realization that it is very possible that Americans will elect someone as president who said that the Constitution should be revoked.

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    Wj

    Seems to me like RFK is probably popular among the right b/c of all the right-wing influencers and pundits who promoted him (obviously hoping for a Biden spoiler).

    All those same influencers and pundits will turn against Kennedy on a dime if they think he could be a Trump-spoiler. I'm skeptical MAGA voters warm'n'fuzzy feelings towards Kennedy will endure if/when that happens.

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  5. Ronald Maciejewski

    The Kennedy name still plays well in politic-land with liberals, and especially Catholics, who, if Kennedy would move more towards the side of anti abortion, could take their votes from Biden to Kennedy. I know a lot of religious folks, Catholics and Evangelicals, who don’t like Trump, but lean towards Trump based on just that single issue. Who knows, maybe Kennedy the independent could pull a spoiler by taking enough of each sides votes!

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    Johntadian

    "Describe to me the sort of voter who was prepared to send President Insurrection back for another term but, upon being given RFK as an option..."
    How about a huge swath of Republicans that would vote for ANY credible alternative to Trump. if they felt they could , because the idea of another 4 years of President you-know-who (or, GOD FORBID, you know who else) is the alternative: especially when he says things they relate to. Unlike DeSantis, he really is the trump without the (well, the same) baggage.

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  7. Pundette

    It's disgraceful across the board that the media keep pushing the Trump-and-Biden-are-both-inevitable narrative, and that the two major parties have not done what parties are supposed to do by providing the American people with two reasonably qualified, reasonably respectable, reasonably honest, reasonably worthy candidates. If these two clowns -- whom nobody seems to want -- are the only choices on the menu of the greatest country in the world, there is something seriously wrong with the entire system.

    Would all of the "journalists" and "pundits" and "influencers" and "talking heads" and "experts" and "pollsters" and "panelists" and "consultants" please sit down, shut up, and let the people vote?

    Thank you!

    DeSantis/Haley 2024 or Haley/DeSantis 2024

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  8. RGS

    For the low-interest, older voter, the name Kennedy, let alone RFK, still screams Democratic. Maybe among the politically disaffected long-time GOPers can get beyond the Kennedy name and vote for him, while long-time Democrats will see him as betraying his political heritage and refuse to. But I'm doubtful.

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  9. GoldenRuleLover

    Rained….. on…… my…… parade.

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  10. Dougrhon

    Why can't we have a third party option who isn't a total conspiracy kook?

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    1. Aleta Richcreek

      Here is the answer: Peter Sonski, who is running for President on the American Solidarity Party ticket in 2024. In 2020 I discovered the ASP, which came closest to representing my values as a Catholic, an American, and a woman. I can think of no better choice in this upcoming election.

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    2. Ken Motamed

      Because anyone with a modicum of electability will run as a major-party candidate.

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      1. Dougrhon

        That's the ongoing mistake.

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