Presenting Your 2024 Senate Race Ratings

Thinking about the Senate affects the plans of party tastemakers when choosing a presidential nominee.

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Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware, and Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. (Photos by Angela Weiss and Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)

A common theme around here is the interconnectedness of elections: that what happens in one party’s primary affects the way voters on the other side are making their decisions.

For example, President Joe Biden’s campaign is spending a lot of time and effort to point out policy successes and other achievements that would make unenthusiastic Democrats feel better about renominating him. But Biden’s greatest asset in reaching the Chicago convention a year from now without incident is something Republican voters are doing: rallying behind former President Donald Trump.

Without the apparent likelihood of Trump being on the ballot next November, Democrats would undoubtedly feel freer to explore alternatives to their incumbent. Whether Trump would actually be the strongest challenger to Biden (he probably wouldn’t be), Democrats fear a Trump return so deeply that they are unlikely to take any chances on an internal fight.

The same works in reverse. How would the plurality of persuadable primary voters on the Republican side feel about their choices if Biden were not running and Democrats had a messy open primary? Trump has won the presidency once and, in the minds of most of his supporters, a second time. As we’ve discussed before, that false belief makes Republicans see Trump as the strongest candidate to take on the Democratic incumbent. What might they think if Vice President Kamala Harris were leading a congested field of aspiring Democrats? 

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  1. Deleted Comment

    This comment has been deleted

  2. Avatar photo
    Chris

    Maybe Florida will get more competitive, but this resident doesn't see it. Granted, Scott's last two state-wide races (Governor in 2014 and Senate in 2018) were close but he's never done great in favorable polling. I'm still amazed how close it was between Scott and Nelson in 2018 given Nelson's willingness to just mail it in every election cycle. But the influx of Registered Republicans into the state since 2018 isn't going to hurt Scott and the Democratic bench doesn't look deep at this point. Allan Grayson has filed paperwork, but I don't see his brand as being very appealing. I always thought Val Demings was a good choice in 2020 but she didn't even come close to defeating Rubio.

    Since Charlie Crist is on the path to becoming a perennial statewide candidate, maybe he'll throw his fan into the ring and we can have Fangate 2 at the debate...

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  3. MrMalredo

    I guess Michigan would theoretically be considered a toss up, but as of right now, it looks like the race solidly leans Dem. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin looks to be the favorite for the Dems. She's pretty much been the prototypical swing state Dem (like the woman she's looking to succeed, Sen. Debbie Stabenow) where she votes down the line Dem in D.C. and then comes home and talks about how she got funding to repair a bridge. She's held a swingy Congressional seat for several terms. She surprisingly didn't avoid a primary challenge (Michigan Dems are usually pretty good at clearing the deck), but most of the other candidates are C-Listers at best. Now the notable exception to that is actor Hill Harper, the jury is still out on if he has what it takes to be a contender, but he certainly has the potential. Harper is trying to run as an inoffensive, more liberal alternative to Slotkin (It's looking like he'll be copying the style of his old school chum, Barack Obama). Harper doesn't have deep roots in Michigan (He's not a Michigan native and moved to Detroit a couple years ago), but there's been growing discontent among Black Democrats that they've been losing political power and maybe Harper can take advantage of that.

    Right now, Slotkin and Harper are both campaigning while the GOP has nothing. The GOP has a variety of c-listers running right now. State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder would probably be the front runner if no one else jumps in. She holds a statewide elected office, but no one really pays attention to the Board of Ed elections, which tend to just follow the top of the ticket. Snyder has mild popularity among the grassroots, having come from the activist class and being fairly in their wheelhouse on education issues, but has never built much of a following.

    Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who ran a godawful campaign for Governor in 2022, and former Congressman Peter Meijer, who was ousted by Trumpinistas, have indicated some interest. But right now, eyes seem to be on former Congressman Mike Rogers and NYSE VP John Tuttle. Rogers would've been a rock star recruit 10 to 15 years ago, but he's been out of office for awhile now and is currently living in Florida. He's also been critical of Trump and has a national security background with the CIA, which is unfortunately no longer a plus in the GOP nowadays. Not much is known about Tuttle, who has kept a residence in Milford, but the NRSC likes his ability to self fund.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    Senate candidate quality will be crucial. Republicans could have won PA in 2022, or AZ in 2022; we can go back and look at bad candidates up and down the line, for years.

    Sherrod Brown in Ohio is vulnerable IF Republicans run a good candidate. If they run someone from Trumpistan, they are very likely to lose. I don't think JD Vance could beat Sherrod Brown in 2024 (he ran against some whatizname).

    Once we know who the nominees are, then I'll predict which states I think will flip, either direction.

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    Azlefty

    Is Arizona really a toss-up? The most probable republican candidate is Kari Lake, who seems to have done a good job discrediting herself. Every analysis I have seen shows the democrat Gallego winning a 3 way race.

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      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      It depends on who gets which nominations. Lake likely loses, but Sinema could clearly be a spoiler, depending on if she runs or not.

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    Mister D

    Trump will do wonders for Democrat turnout. There won't be much motivation for Biden, but they will crawl over hot lava to vote against the Casino King.

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  7. Placid Paddler

    So one reason there isn’t more energy to get rid of Trump is that the incumbents in Congress, who are Trumpist and ineffective, might lose their seats if Trump isn’t on the ballot so he can lose again(and deny it again)?

    Sounds like keeping Trump is a lose-lose while nominating someone else is a win-win. I don’t see the Dems getting a veto proof majority in any scenario. Let’s get a winner President and then go get the Congress back in ‘26

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    1. Hikingguy

      I don't want Republicans to get Congress back. The performance in the House of Representatives every damn day is enough to make me wonder WHY people want to see Republicans with more yet power. They cannot be trusted with the power they already have. Senate Republicans lacked the balls to convict Trump. Useless as teats on a boar.

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      1. Placid Paddler

        Well, I suppose I was thinking about better Republicans than the current crop. I think it will be many more years before the progressives will be out of power in the Democrat party. I won’t vote for Trumpists or progressives. I’m done with holding my nose. My vote is an endorsement. I will now go to the polls and only vote for decent people, if only 3 or 4 percent of the rest of you would go along, we could get back to normalcy rather quickly.

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    Thewalks

    Chris, glad you liked my cutline suggestion.
    I'm not sold on the idea that Manchin will run for re-election. Assuming he does, who is the strongest candidate against him? Who might make the better Senator is a different question.

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    The Stray Goose

    Biden could easily lose to Trump. The Democrats shouldn't fool themselves. In a real sense, the problem with the Democratic ticket isn't Biden, it's Harris. If Biden goes with Manchin, it's a win.

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    1. Gorgon_Heap

      I respectfully disagree. Most Democrats I've spoken with (those I personally know, so it's a small demographic) loathe Manchin - at least outside West Virgina - and until a few days ago I for one forgot Harris was even in the White House. As much as I'm merely *resigned* to have Biden atop the ticket again, we don't vote for Veeps.

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        The Stray Goose

        I understand and while I'm no expert, I think you might be wrong.

        We vote for Veeps when the president is over 80!

        Everybody knows Harris is a liability. Like with Susan Collins and the Republicans, "Do ya wanna win or don't ya?!" You can have that seat or you can give it to the other party. You're not going to get a MAGA in Maine. If you want to defeat Trump, Manchin is the best way to do it - OR - he bolts and runs as a third party candidate. Your choice, Democrats!

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    Regarding the VPOTUS trying out a new role: I can't speak to her career in California before coming to the Senate. But I very much doubt there has ever been a day since she joined the Senate, continuing into her vice presidency, in which she has been in anything BUT attack mode for most of her waking hours, at least in public.

    Her staffers apparently adore her, though. Link: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/30/kamala-harris-office-dissent-497290

    In related news, I gather the President's dog, Commander, is getting some new training. His kennel has little stenciled stickmen in the shape of Secret Service agents, each with his arm in a sling. The fact that Joe Biden can't be bothered to ensure that his dog doesn't bite the agents guarding his life carries weight with me, almost certainly a disproportionate amount.

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      The Stray Goose

      As is so often the case, those dogs are vicious because of the treatment from their owner...

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      Dennis

      She’s probably extra nice to her staff seeing as how she must depend on them so much. My recollection of her Senate days is that she could be snide and condescending to witnesses, which I have since come to see as pretense masking her insecurities.

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      The Stray Goose

      Some call it 'attack mode', others call it 'whine mode'.

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        She would come into every Senate Judiciary confirmation hearing with a thick sheaf of notes prepared by her staffers, which is fine, and she would aggressively speak over anyone and everyone, especially the witnesses, to plow her way through a series of accusations and admonitions, rants really. Every single time it was nothing but a performance for C-SPAN, the sort of thing watched with approval in law school faculty lounges but unlikely to actually get much purchase with a wider audience. Her self-discipline was scary, but her affect entirely rigid, as if she were always on the edge of a rage that might erupt into shouts or worse — that to the extent she was paying attention to the witnesses at all, it was to seek pretenses to trigger a nasty exchange, of the sort that might get promoted from C-SPAN to MSNBC. In my nightmares I find myself alone on a spaceship, like Sigourney Weaver's character in Alien, to find that I'm not alone, but then it's not that alien from the movie I'm trapped with — it's Kamala Harris I'm trapped with, and she has a briefing book, and the airlock just looks more and more like the only way to avoid her, even though I have no spacesuit.

        Other than that, I suppose we should give her the benefit of the doubt, right?

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          The Stray Goose

          Dude, seek help.

          I just think she's a lousy vice president.

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            Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

            I dunno, I found it very helpful to learn that community banks are in the community.

            Of course I have a cold, so perhaps the sudafed made that learning moment pop for me.

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      O.W.L.

      Biden was reportedly worried about the loyalties of the SS detail....and dogs are generally excellent judges of character. "He needed bitin'" is a dog version of the Texas jury verdict....

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        That's a really good point, and I thank you for reminding me of it, O.W.L.

        At common law every dog is entitled to one free bite; afterwards, his owner knows he has a dog that has bitten, which changes the standard of care. And a rabid dog isn't even permitted his one free bite.

        My sympathies are with Commander here, and Harris' staff.

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        Retired Prosecutor

        Related story. When my dog-loving daughter was about 7, I was discussing a case I was prosecuting where the defendant had resisted, and the K-9 had inflicted some serious bites as a result. While discussing the situation, I mentioned to my daughter that despite defendant's punishment at the hands of the dog, at that point he was still presumed innocent, rather than guilty.

        My daughter looked into my eyes with all of the sincerity of a small child and informed me of the reality: "Dad, dogs know . . . ."

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          Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

          An ineluctable truth, this was called on the prairies of west Texas whence I sprang.

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            Retired Prosecutor

            OK, I gots to ask (a line from my favorite movie in the whole wide world, "Dirty Harry"), where exactly in west Texas?

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