Party People

How to win with a very old, very unpopular president. Maybe?

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205
President Joe Biden, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Sen. Debbie Stabenow arrive at the 2022 North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan, on September 14, 2022. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)

A recurring hazard of The Platform Formerly Known as Twitter is detecting sarcasm when it isn’t intended and not detecting it when it is. Outlandish ideas are the coin of the realm: When someone tweets “kill the Jews,” it’s not always instantly clear whether they’re mocking the attitude of “Hamas liberals” on campus or, er … (In the Musk era, “or, er” is usually the right answer.)

On Thursday, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat imagined a scenario that landed squarely on the fault line between sarcastic humor and “yeah, that’s absolutely plausible in the timeline we’ve entered.”

He was joking—I think. But none of us would be terribly surprised next fall to find Trump campaigning in an orange jumpsuit behind the glass in a federal pen and Biden campaigning in a hospital gown behind the glass in an ICU. In modern American politics, expect the unexpected.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    I can’t believe you went this whole newsletter without some line about “C’mon party people, put your hands in the air…”

    It’s amazing that John Fetterman is the guy to stump about Biden’s health and vitality. Admittedly, Fetterman has gotten based since 10/7 and this new version of him is awesome. I’m with Jeff Blehar - it’s the suit.

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    Nancynhac

    As a Pennsylvanian, I agree that Josh Shapiro is a good choice to promote the idea of a "normal" Democrat Party. I don't like his policies, but he's done a couple of good things in this state, and I like him personally.
    I appreciate his pushback against Trump's efforts to disqualify PA's vote results in 2020.

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  3. T

    Any non-MAGA voter should clearly understand that a vote for Jill Stein, Cornel West, or RFK Jr. is invariably a vote for a Trump presidency. Whether or not we should have a binary system and whether or not it SHOULD be such a vote, that is the way it currently IS.

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    1. Christopher Lake

      *Any* non-MAGA voter, you say? I'm a non-MAGA conservative, and I live in the state that I recently heard rightly described as the bluest one in the nation, and living here, I believe it-- Maryland. As a conservative in this state, I can already tell you the results for *this* state. The Democratic nominee for President will win this state, period. Therefore, I can vote for whomever I want, and I will. It won't be for Trump, or any MAGA Republican. It may not be for Biden either though. In this state, my vote for President won't matter. If Biden is the Democratic nominee for President, he *will* get the majority of the vote in Maryland. I've lived here for over twenty years, and I know that to be a certainty. I do prefer him over Trump, and it's not even close, because I simply can't vote for a shameless, bullying, deeply immature, would-be authoritarian, man-child of an election-denier who praises bloodthirsty dictators while criticizing American allies, and that is DJT in a nutshell, but even if I don't vote for Biden, he will still win Maryland, and by a large margin.

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  4. David Barkhausen

    How does this solve the Kamala problem, since she's the first off the so-called "deep bench?"

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  5. Dougrhon

    You've got to be joking. Surely this column from the King of Gloom is satire. Because the ONLY chance Biden has next year is if sufficient numbers of independents recognize that as bad as things are, Trump and his brand of craxy simply CANNOT be returned to power. The entire election turns on this unless a miracle happens and Trump is not the nominee. The Democratic Party is nearly as much of a stink brand to independents and moderates as the Trump dominated GOP. The "younger" Democrats will be of no assistance whatsoever.

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      Bryson DeAwesome

      until the Rs re-think their stupid abortion stance, they will keep losing big - even to a unfit idiot like Biden

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      1. Dougrhon

        This is also correct.

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  6. Tommaj60

    Read Dan Senors book!!’
    The causes for the decline of the US lays at the feet of Progressives and the feet of the Republican Clown Car Party.
    Reprehensible how our elites have not only failed the country but brought about its demise.

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    1. Scianti7

      Our decline will be traced back to when we decided to stop compromising & working together to find reasonable solutions where nobody "wins" outright but most groups are represented in the solution.

      Societies & civilizations fail when the people become hard hearted & stiff-necked. When we refuse to consider other points of view as legitimate, & stubornly cling to only our own we doom ourselves.

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      1. T

        Yes, the decline can be laid at the feet of Gingrich, Norquist, and the 'contract.'

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    BillAZ

    An acute and understated point. At this juncture it's hard to claim the GOP is an organized political party - more like an island of misfit toys. It appears to have no core agenda other than returning Trump to office or maintaining and accumulating power at any cost. That isn't a party that can govern nor should anyone desire to entrust it with broad powers.

    Issues will come and go and are re-visited but hand American leadership over to a palingenetic leadership cult with a powerful religious following and politics as an exercise in self-government is over. We might be encouraged that the institutions of the Republic held in the crisis that followed the 2020 election but it could well have gone the other way if a handful of people had not held the line. Trump and his lieutenants want to ensure those people and institutions will no longer have the power to restrain him.

    Lest anyone think that is too subtle a point consider that any national candidate and party that promises his followers that he will be their "retribution" should never be entrusted with power. Not ever.

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  8. Allen Z

    One of the reasons Trump won in 2016 was his charge that the Democrats were soft on Radical Islam. This issue did not come up so much in 2020. Now, however, the issue is back with Israel/Hamas War. For example Trump and Republicans are calling for Foreign Nationals (non-citizen) Hamas supporters to be deported. Which I support.

    To his credit, President Biden and most Democrats, as Nick wrote, support Israel in the War. But the big issue for Republicans (in addition to opposing any cease fire) may soon be: why are Hamas supporters, who aren't citizens, still allowed residency in the US?

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    1. Dougrhon

      Did you hear that MIT has refused to suspend the many Muslim students who violated university rules by threatening and intimidating Jews? The reason? Fears that they might get deported. Refusal to offend Muslims in any way shape or form is fully inundated in pretty much all American civil institutions and I have yet to hear a Democrat truly break with it. As you say it is a Republican issue. It shouldn't be. In fact if we are to survive long term it can't be. But it is.

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  9. Ivar Gilhuus

    Interesting with all the "Biden is just too old" - nobody is actually criticising his policy and saying this or that decision is bad and that he has made them because of high age. OK, he is mumbling, talking slowly, walking like the old man he is and looking fragile, but as long as nobody can connect his age directly to bad decisions, what then? Of course you may disagree with his politics, but that has nothing to do with his age. Then it seems to be only the standard American superficiality. You really deserve Trump.

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    1. Dougrhon

      My guess is that if people were happy with the state of things and with the "decisions" Biden has made, his age wouldn't be an issue. The idea that he has been great but somehow people have been convinced that he's too old is a cannard.

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      1. Ivar Gilhuus

        So that his legislative record after two and a half year is compassing most presidents after the 1960's - he has nothing to do with that, it's only his adminjstration? I really doubt that, but anyway he has done a great job picking a good team, then? That's one of the most important tasks for a president, both the second Bush with Rumsfeld and Cheney and Trump with his sycophants failed horribly. Poor US.

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        1. Dougrhon

          His team sucks. His administration has been terrible. Since you felt the need to bring up Cheney and Trump it's clear you are a partisan Democrat. But even partisans should be able to discern reality. Don't fall for what the liberal Ruy Texiera calls "The Fox News Fallacy."

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          1. Ivar Gilhuus

            OK. Here's my takeaway now from the several reactions to my comments: Biden is too old, and the things he does that work are actually made by his team. But, Oh, his team is terrible. So the infrastructure packet, the bringing NATO together, the chips act, the several threats of government shutdown avoided - everything done by the poor, senile, old Biden. I know Trump has no logical sense, but that all you R's are equally unreasonable was new to me...

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      Retired Prosecutor

      "OK, he is mumbling, talking slowly, walking like the old man he is and looking fragile, but as long as nobody can connect his age directly to bad decisions, what then? "

      Sounds a lot like the third stage of denial or grief: bargaining. Biden has done a terrible job but Trump is frightening. Why not just run someone else and not put us all to the test?

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        BillAZ

        What Republican ever thought a Democratic President ever did a great job? Or vice versa?

        No he hasn't done a "terrible job" but we would be better served by another candidate. The country shouldn't have to walk this knife's edge in 2024.

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        1. Dougrhon

          The ones who think he has done a terrible job who matter here are independents. ALso leftists who may stay home altogether.

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            BillAZ

            True. Anyone on the Left who stays home either expects the proletariat to overthrow Trump or more likely just need to grow up.

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      2. Ivar Gilhuus

        The question is, WHY has Biden done a terrible job? If it is his politics, then it has nothing to do with the age, only he is a Democrat. AOC is in her early thirties, do you think she would have done better? If not, then "he is just too old" is B$.

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          Retired Prosecutor

          After the Afghanistan debacle, Biden just continually began to trend downward. It was a window into his character, and many didn't like what they saw. They had -- after all -- voted for competence rather than chaos. He is "just too old" is not BS -- there is a good chance he doesn't finish his term and his VP choice is less popular than him.

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          1. Ivar Gilhuus

            The downward trend after Afghanistan - which concrete decisions has he made wrong only because he is too old? That's my point, I don't think you find any.

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        2. AJLiberty

          An important part of politics is what you project. This is what our enemies see and what our allies must trust. Biden looks old. He sometimes looks confused. He sometimes drifts into mumbling. He often looks like he needs a nap. It's what happens when you get old. You might be right that the team around him are still making good decisions, especially about Ukraine and now Israel. But the voting populace fears that really tough decisions might yet be coming, ones that require the best judgment and shrewdest analysis. Biden is tough to market to people who are looking for strength and vitality from a leader. If we get pulled into a war, will Biden have the stamina to make the flood of real-time decisions that a command in chief must make? I think this is why a lot of Democrats are even concerned.

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          1. Ivar Gilhuus

            You are drifting into conspiracy theories/MAGA propaganda when you talk about his team makes good decisions for him. From who do you know that, except Fox&Co? He definitely cooperates with them, but that's only positive. Biden is travelling around the world, last to Israel, meeting people, talking to other world leaders. He has collected experience from international politics in the Senate and Obama administration over more than 30 years. If you watched the complete State ofthe Union in february you must have seen him brilliantly turning the heckling from MTG&Co. I don't know, maybe he needs a nap in between, but he really has a lot to handle with the MAGA-bunch hunting his son and trying to make up some evidence so that they can impeach him. Of course you see what you want to see, but without concrete evidence I have no reason to think he is not doing his job himself.

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            Bryson DeAwesome

            if we are being honest, that is really what it comes down:
            everyone knows Biden is a worthless mouthpiece but are comfortable with the people ("Team Biden") making the real decisions ... even though we don't truly know the full list of who these people are
            it is really far better than Biden having any real input

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  10. Francislyo

    A lot has been made, including in this article, of the Times-Sienna poll. But as Mona Charen pointed out, the reported results on some questions (ex: young voters) seemed very questionable. She stated that the poll oversampled conservatives by about 10 percentage points. I hadn't read this in either the NY Times or TD, so I checked into it. Here is the relevant question in the poll:

    QUESTION: Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate, or conservative?
    FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?
    ANSWERS [ALL STATES]:
    Very liberal: 10%
    Somewhat liberal: 10%
    Moderate: 39%
    Somewhat conservative: 19%
    Very conservative: 17%
    Don’t know/Refused: 5%

    The decision to oversample conservatives complicated results, and pollsters tried to compensate with weighting, but the results, IMO, are unreliable.

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      BillAZ

      I'm skeptical that a lot of folks are good at self-identifying. We've all run across folks who are mad as a box of ferrets who think they are moderates and anyone to the right or left of them - which is three-quarters of the country - is a fanatic.

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