A Clear-Eyed Look at Our Demographic Future

An aging U.S. population presents real, but manageable, challenges—if we’re willing to act.

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Pro-immigration activists rally near the U.S. Capitol calling for immigration reform in Washington, D.C., May 12, 2021. (Photo by Aurora Samperio/NurPhoto /Getty Images)

Dear Capitolisters,

Frequent readers of this newsletter and those who know me IRL—two somewhat mutually exclusive groups for reasons we need not explore today—know I’m a pretty optimistic guy. Eco-doomerism, economic declinism, authoritarian hegemony, and other trendy pessimisms rarely find my warm embrace. But there are exceptions to my generally sunny outlook (beyond daylight saving time, expiration dates, and sloppy nachos, I mean), and last week’s U.S. Census Bureau projections definitely hit on one: 

Projections out this week from the Census Bureau see America’s long streak of expansion grinding to a halt by the 21st century’s end. Indeed, the US population could be shrinking by as early as 2080, after peaking at 369 million, in the bureau’s central scenario. … ‍This marks the first time that the bureau has forecast a decline for the coming decades — with the only other recorded population decline in the US occurring in 1918, amidst a deadly Spanish flu outbreak and a World War. By contrast with 2015’s and 2018’s optimistic outlooks, the stark shift in 2023’s projection reflects a decline in birth rates, higher death rates (due to an increasingly aging population, as well a COVID-related spike), and a reliance on immigration as a driving factor for growth.

It isn’t exactly news that developed economies around the world will face various demographic challenges in the decades ahead, as their populations get older on average. Still, the new Census Bureau estimates are notable in showing just how the United States’ already aging population has combined with new fertility and mortality (especially COVID-19) issues to further crimp the future U.S. population and workforce—and in showing how U.S. policy could affect that future.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Rickschwartz711

    Yes we need more immigrants and yes we need more babies. It would be nice to vote for someone who agreed to both of those simple ideas. I know that politically it's impossible to be pro-life and pro-immigrant but wish someone would at least try.

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  2. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    The decline is coming in 2080? Holy s**t batman, I'll be in my triple digits by then!

    I'm gonna predict when I break the triple digit age # i won't care too much about the future because, well, I won't have much of a future...

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  3. Mirabelle

    When people's Social Security benefits get threatened, they'll find they really like immigrants.

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    1. Scianti7

      If they are willing to hear unbiased information. But, it is amazing how crises can change our perspective!

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    2. Avatar photo
      Kmregan7

      Not if there are people out there blaming the immigrants….

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      1. Mirabelle

        People receiving Social Security benefits are usually retired, not working. Immigrants would hold the jobs that pay for their benefits, the idea being that immigrants make up the deficit in the workforce. What would there be to blame them for?

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        1. Jackrabbit McQuivers

          Hi, I'd like to introduce you to America.

          We find a way to blame immigrants for everything, regardless of if it makes rational sense or not.

          (But I agree with you that it would be irrational to do so.)

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        2. Avatar photo
          Ed

          Unfortunately, there are a lot of people talking about immigrants "stealing jobs," declaring that immigrants come to America to live on the dole, etc.

          I watched some FOX News last weekend (it was playing in the background as I was cleaning up some work I had done in the house). It has been quite some time since I saw anything on FOX other than Special Report. I was frankly shocked at some of what was put out about immigrants.

          I live on the border, so I am very familiar with the problems that we are currently having, but the level of ignorance was pretty depressing.

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          1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

            Always amazing to me - we come to live on the dole AND we steal jobs ?

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          2. Mirabelle

            Yes, I am aware of this fear on the part of some R's. However, it doesn't apply here because if you are old enough to receive benefits, you're likely not working anymore and don't care if an immigrant has your old job, and benefits are cash in your bank account and it doesn't matter if an immigrant or an American born worker put it there.

            Now if you're trying to say that a worker won't be able to get a job and pay enough into their Social Security over their working life because immigrants took all the best jobs, the facts on the ground of the US needing more workers, especially specially skilled ones, would refute that idea. Now I don't put it past a Republican to believe six impossible things before breakfast, but confusing the two things seems like a stretch even for them.

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  4. Sullyaugustine

    So, we should basically give away the country to save it. . .

    Immigration makes no sense whatsoever for current American citizens unless there is some magical way to ensure that each entering migrant is better educated and more productive than the average citizen. All our experience shows that the average immigrant is far less productive than the average citizen and may even be a drain when social service costs are included.

    Importing 8 low skill immigrants to contribute the amount I collect in Social Security makes no sense. It implies that the country will import 64 low skill immigrants to pay what those 8 collect. . .

    The US functioned perfectly well with 150 Million population, and it functioned perfectly well with 250 million. An aging workforce is surely a challenge, but surely it would be better to press for automation than to import cheap labor to serve current citizens.

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    1. Frankfurman

      I don't think it's "some magical way" that entering migrants are more productive...it's just that immigrants are, on average, more productive than US citizens, unfortunately. Workforce participation for US citizens is shockingly, disgracefully low, for immigrants it's effectively 100%. There's a little bit of sleight of hand in saying "someone who arrives at 25", which is essentially saying "when the child-rearing and educational investment is complete and work begins", of course, but that's the positive of "brain drain" that other places complain about. They train people but then they work here because there's more opportunity. My love for America takes second to no man, but walk around any big city and any rural area, and you see far far too many able-bodied people who aren't working.

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    2. Jack H Wolf

      One should not value people by the salary they can make, or whether they are from a poor background. As the article mentioned, the job most likely to increase in demand is the low paying medical aide. AI will not clean the butts of our elderly in nursing homes, though it might reduce the ranks of advertising content producers.
      In straight numbers perhaps lower earning workers might be losers in terms of more benefits per taxes paid, but they are necessary, and they allow native born to get better higher paying jobs. Native born do not want to work in chicken processing plants or as nurse's aides.
      If I have any beef on immigration it is the importing of higher end, physicians, for example, because we are not educating enough Americans and relying on countries like India or Caribbean medical schools to provide the highest paying jobs in America, as well as being a brain drain from poorer countries where physicians are more in demand.
      I am for taking in the words of Emma Lazarus ""... your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,"
      That was my grandfather who came here from Poland in 1905 and had a sewing machine in the street where he sewed buttons on knickers. And most of his grandchildren are professionals, The poor who come here, work hard and raise their children to succeed.

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      1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

        That poem has never been, is not, will never been US immigration policy.

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        1. Jack H Wolf

          Never has been? All my grandparents were like that as were millions of Irish, German, Jewish, Polish, Italian. Poor people looking for a better life or fleeing persecution built this country.

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          1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

            As far as I know potential immigrants needed a sponsor to be allowed in. And some races were not allowed in, or severely limited in numbers. Hollywood loves to romanticize this part of your history. As do your politicians.

            "Every person over the age of 12 wanting entry to America had to have some money because the authorities felt if you had cash, you might not steal to survive. You had to be healthy, or else they could send you back for something as minor as pink eye*. You had to have a family sponsor already in the U.S. and prospects for employment."
            *Pink eye was not minor before antibiotics became available. It was very contagious.

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    3. Avatar photo
      Scarlette Tarte

      Wrong on all levels. Immigrants have always come here as "low skilled". See Italian grocery shop owners or Irish laborers, or Chinese railway workers, or Asian nail salon workers and Mexican farm workers.

      All of those low skilled workers did enormous things for this country, including building the railroads, dams and ship channel between Louisiana and Houston. All of them have had kids that have gotten degrees and become "higher skilled workers".

      It's the exact same today. We need home health care workers, that's basically low skilled work. So Maria Lopez comes from Mexico and gets a job babysitting the elderly. Her husband gets a job in construction. They build a working class life, have 3 kids, send them to college or university ...and bam, just like that ...American dream fulfilled.

      I can tell you of a dying industry immigrants saved in this country very recently. Fishing and shrimping in Louisiana. The Vietnamese boat people ( remember them?) came here with virtually nothing, but, over a period of about 25 years, gradually took over the Louisiana shrimping and fishing industry, as old Cajuns and other got out of it and retired and their kids had moved on to better things. Louisiana was despairing of losing an entire industry and way of life. Now, in little Cajun towns all over south Louisiana you see fish markets with the names of Lee, Chen, Mai, and other names like "Lucky Fish" or "happy fish".

      In New Orleans East, a thriving Vietnamese Village called Village de L'est has grown, since the 70's when the first boat people arrived, into a bustling, robust and resilient place, as they proved to us after Hurricane Katrina. A whole fusian food, creole/Vietnamese has rooted itself there. They are the tale of America, made manifest right in front of you.

      What they are is what America IS. We are an entire nation of that story, told over and over, with different cultures brought here and made into something uniquely American.

      Of course we are going to find the answer in immigration because, from our very beginning, we always have. We are not blood and soil, never have been, never will be.

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      1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

        Under the current system the US does not issue visas for lower level workers (like Canada does). The emphasis of the US immigration system is family reunion. For these Immediate Relatives & Family Members there are no requirements re. education, skills, experience, command of the English language, health.
        For those who come work-bound, the job needs to require at least a bachelors degree or equivalent. The visa issued is the non-immigrant (temporary) H-1B. Limited to 85,000 under the cap (outside the cap are jobs at universities & colleges, non-for profit research agencies, etc.) and for about 80% issued exclusively to MALE workers, usually working in tech.
        The lower level workers are mostly illegal immigrants. Maria Lopez mentioned here comes either based on marriage to a US citizen or she comes illegally. There are no other options.
        In our case, my husband had the work permit, I was told I should have stayed in my home country. "No one wants you here !" I was not allowed to work or start a business. "We have too many immigrants coming in already - taking jobs !"
        After six years we had to leave the US as the work permit had "run out". After some nine years we finally got the Green Cards. I discovered it was impossible to find a job after such a long time of unemployment. So I never worked here. No Soc. Sec. rights for me.
        Please stop saying how much immigrants are appreciated here. I know better. Any idea how lonely you become on an H-4 visa ? Many of us have mental problems, suffer from depression. Some H-4's try to commit suicide.

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    4. Scianti7

      Automation doesn't grocery shop or pay taxes. Immigrants would. Automation doesn't participate in the economy, immigrants do.

      And if Immigrants take jobs like inhome nusing care, which many do, that benefits everyone. Your ancestors were immigrants. They benefited themselves & this country by coming, as do current immigrants. Immigrants, as stated in the article, are a net benefit, they don't cost more, they contribute more than they cost. Furthermore their kids end up being our nurses, doctors, fire fighters, & police officers. Look into it.

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      1. Sullyaugustine

        As it happens my grandparents entered the country when it was still somewhat thinly populated, and when mass armies were still thought a necessary thing. They also entered when "root hog or die" was the general rule and the "welfare system" was the town offering minimal hourly pay for snow shoveling and other such back breaking jobs when labor was greatly needed. And my grandfathers were both drafted into the army for WW1 pretty soon after they arrived. Not that I see why the fact that I stem from immigrants somehow obligates me and my descendants to forever abstain from believing that immigration should be curbed or eliminated.

        If you believe it's an economic gain to import low skilled workers to "grocery shop" and thus support the demand side or that an in-home nursing care worker will earn enough to support his or her family and won't be a drag on the overall welfare of the average American, you need to invest in a couple of basic Economics courses and a Business Math course of the sort once taught in high schools. I also recommend a reading of Bastiat.

        But let me ask how many hundreds of millions or billions of people you think the US should contain as a comfortable population.

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        1. Jack H Wolf

          Home nursing aides are in greatest demand and we will not see AI wiping butts in the near future- if anything I expect the service industries will remain in demand where clerical jobs will be replaced. You will likely find an AI program that can generate advertising before one that can cook a good meal.
          I think there will always be a balance between various needs for labor, but it remains that immigrants have significantly higher work force participation and lower unemployment. And if they are working a lower paying job, it is a job that is needed or it wouldnt be there. It allows native born Americans to take the next rung up.
          So if a nursing aide does not earn as much as somebody else, how are they not as important as anybody else. Can we do without them? Hardly.
          I think the demands of the economy vary and might require both low and high skilled jobs. I dont see the need to import physicians when we should just educate enough for our needs and offer that opportunity to our citizens. But we do likely need more nurses and but for Philippine immigrants our shortage would be more severe. And we are seeing a lot of immigrants now going into teaching.
          The thing is that less skilled immigrants usually start taking lower level jobs that often native born dont want.
          My grandparents were piss poor and worked the needle trades, sweatshops. And their children were middle class. And their grandchildren are mostly professionals.
          That is not to say I favor unlimited immigration. We currently are taking in about 1.2M legal and 0.5 illegal immigrants per annum (including those admitted with asylum claims), about half of a percent of the population which otherwise would be declining as our birth rate is below replacement. I would like to decrease the illegal route as much as possible and then titrate the level to our needs, maybe 2M at this point

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    5. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

      The current influx of desperate people - from Middle and South America - differs from illegal immigrants arriving in the past - mainly from Mexico. Those migrants usually had a job waiting for them. They often travelled back and forth, until the "anti-immigrant law" of 1996 made that impossible. That is when the numbers of the undocumented started to swell. They stayed - because once out it was very hard to get in again.
      I met many "undocumented" when in lived in the Central Vally of CA. Many hardworking people - rain or shine - and a number of them had started their own small business.
      Most of the people who come here now would & could contribute when given a chance. Usually the second and third generation is more educated and therefore more prosperous.

      When it comes to legal immigration, that is a right US citizens have. They can bring in foreign spouses, minor children, parents. Also adult children with their families, and siblings with their family (although in these categories the waiting times can be long, very long.) About 65-70% of US immigrants are allowed in that way. As a result it is almost impossible to legally immigrate into the US if you do not have a US citizen family member. The emphasis on family reunion is a choice Congress once made.

      For many, the real "job-stealers" are the H-1B's, temporary immigrants who come to fill jobs in tech, the STEM field, etc. The program would be easy to reform, to abolish it would be even better - by issuing high level workers Conditional Green Cards right-away - but too many big businesses make money thanks to these immigrants.

      The issue with Mr. Lincicome's statistics is that in some all immigrants are lumped together. Legal immigrants need a sponsor to come in, who also takes financial responsibility. Work-bound non-immigrants have to leave if they lose their job. Also, Legal Permanent Residents have no right to Fed. programs in the first five years of their stay (except to an ACA policy). No wonder this group is no drain, quite the contrary.
      I wonder what the statistics will look like five, ten, years from now (in case of no reform of immigration policies).
      Bytheway politicians do see immigrants as a problem. That is what I was told over and over re. my H-4 status. I was told "to go back to where I came from, the sooner the better". No difference between Dems and Reps.

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      1. Sullyaugustine

        The fact that you included ". . . the current influx of desperate people. . ." and the assertion ". . . it is almost impossible to immigrate into the US if you do not have a US citizen family member" in the same comment leaves me gob smacked.

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        1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

          I read often the remark "why don't these migrants come here legally ?" Well, the emphasis on family reunion instead of needed workers, is why.
          I added the word "legally" to prevent possible misunderstandings.
          What is so gob-smack-ing about the comment ?

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    6. Avatar photo
      Magpie

      You: "All our experience shows that the average immigrant is far less productive than the average citizen and may even be a drain when social service costs are included."

      Mr. Lincicome: "Finally, and contrary to what you might hear, immigrants are generally a net boost to, not drain on, government coffers.”

      Mr. Lincicome backs up his assertion with data. You say "All our experience shows..." Do you have any data? Otherwise I'm going with Mr. Lincicome on this.

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    7. Hikingguy

      Who is going to pick your tomatoes?

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      1. Sullyaugustine

        I eat only the tomatoes I grow myself because supermarket tomatoes are a waste of calories and money. No taste.

        As to other vegetables, I would have no problem with importing seasonal labor, but it makes no sense to import someone with skills and education so low that all they can earn money at is picking fruit. Better to automate US farms and offshore the growing of crops which can't be automated or which can't support high enough wages to attract US citizen workers.

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        1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

          Higher wages were tried. But few people have the stamina for this type of work. Workers started in the morning and most of them were gone by lunchtime. Shorter bodies usually means stronger backs.
          P.S. I buy heirloom tomatoes.

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        2. Avatar photo
          Scarlette Tarte

          Your ancestors probably had low skills themselves.

          Almost all of ours did.

          Why do you think they wanted to come to America? America was the one place people like themselves could actually rise. Back in the old country, they were often constrained to a class, or type of work, or legally bound to only certain jobs.

          America gave all those people a reason to hope. And they came by the millions and succeeded. Every immigrant class, including Latin Americans have risen above their "low skills" thru the success of their work and their children going on to better things.

          I say send those. Send the least educated. Send the hungry. Send those who are told in their home country they are "lower caste" and cannot rise. Because they are the ones most eager to prove, oh hell yeah, we can.

          I have told the story of the illegal immigrant woman I hired on my ranch when I lived in Texas. She was a go getter. Up before dawn, in bed well after midnight every single day. She made the absolute best tamales and other food. So I bought her a used food truck. Helped her fix it up, got her new equipment, on a low interest loan.

          I was paid back within a year. A YEAR. She worked her butt off, hustling every little festival in East Texas, and set up in various towns on different days. She didn't take any day off but Sunday, and even then, she was working, sewing clothes for her kids or gardening.

          She now owns a fleet of 10 trucks. She hires people. She makes a payroll, pays taxes, and is still illegal. Although covered by an immigration lawyer now, and such a darling of her community, no one would tolerate her being deported.

          This immigrant energy is needed by this country. Immigrants are a reminder to us OF US. "Immigrants, we get the job done", is the best line from Hamilton, the musical, because it's true.

          Anyone who has an idea of immigrants as "lazy" or just sucking off of welfare needs to actually get out and get to know some immigrants. I have never met one like that.

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          1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

            I keep telling this to your politicians, but no one seems to get it. Many H-4 women ran a (small) business in their home country. We are willing to work, hard. We are educated, motivated. We are already in the country, legally. We have much to offer - if you only let us.
            Thank you for helping this woman making her potential come true. However if she makes one mistake she can be deported, and will only be able to retuen after ten years. (According to he "anti-immigrant" law of 1996.) Does not matter that the community loves her, does not matter she created jobs.

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          2. Sullyaugustine

            The fact that my ancestors had low skills and were admitted to the country does not obligate me and my descendants to share the country with anyone in the world who wants to come in, especially since times have changed. The social welfare system is enormously different and more costly, and our laws have evolved to the point that the whole notion of encouraging a "melting pot" effect is scoffed at in law and in practice.

            As to your example of an industrious immigrant who does well, I don't dispute that most immigrants come to work and will contribute. That doesn't mean that the entry of millions of new immigrants each year benefits the existing population of citizens who "own" the country.

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    8. Avatar photo
      Kmregan7

      Give away our country? How would immigrants, which is how our country was built btw, be giving away our country? Immigrants want to come here, work, and become part of our country.

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      1. Jackrabbit McQuivers

        I noticed the same comment. But when someone starts their argument with "it's like giving away our country," you must realize that they are so locked into their opinion that there's no point in debating.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Kmregan7

          Oh probably
          But it’s a concept I just can’t comprehend
          I understand more when someone is “we need to know who is coming in and maybe control how (doesn’t necessarily mean restrictions just knowledge)
          But giving away our country- how? Why? We’re a nation of immigrants!

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      2. Frankfurman

        +1
        Also, immigrants broadly come with values we *used to* cherish as American--hard work, thrift, focus on family, etc.

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        1. Jackrabbit McQuivers

          That's why they're a threat to some

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  5. Token Liberal

    Back in the day children were economic assets. They could work the farm and support you in your (probably short) old age. Also, some would likely die, so you needed extra. Today, kids are an economic liability. You will probably be better off financially without them. Cheap diapers won't alter this.

    So, immigration. Until citizens feel like our immigration laws have any meaning, I think it will be difficult to write new ones that deal with our need for immigrants.

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    WKDawson

    (sarcasm) What? You mean "build the wall" is a nonsense slogan that probably does little or nothing for the nation? That those Latin American hoards are not the boogeyman and could even actually improve our economy? This cannot be. Trump knows. (/sarcasm)

    Here in Japan, they have gradually been opening up the country to immigrants, particularly those with either technical skills or elder care (some Japanese live a long time). There are many immigrants from Southeast Asia at my church who are caretakers and quite a few immigrants working at places like Rakuten (Japan's version of Amazon).

    I think it is a reality we need to learn to respect, and I wish that Congress would come up with a sensible way to make immigration more humane and reflect that reality.

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    1. Jack H Wolf

      Good thoughts WK. The problem with getting some sensible immigration is that the right likes to appeal to nativist 'we are getting overrun' sentiments and the left acts like it is immoral to follow the rule of law by policing the border.
      Various compromises have been attempted, and should be tried again.
      I think in exchange for securing the border (easier said than done, maybe even a wall to make the MAGAs happy) the liberals could get DACA and higher family reunion rates (the current waiting period for a sibling is about 10 years for American citizens) and higher refugee intake (not asylum). The concerns of the right over welfare costs could come by issuing green cards that require payment of a fair amount, maybe 5-10K a year that could be credited to taxes thus ensuring that people are paying a regular amount of taxes and not working off the books as many do particularly the undocumented.
      That being said, it likely wont happen in the current fractious political environment.

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      1. Antoinette.Uiterdijk

        About 70% of US immigration is currently family reunion. Tech workers - who now originate mainly from India - wait 12-20 years for their Green Card - inside the US. All those years living in stress about their future.
        Immigration should benefit the country as a whole. Not just one US citizen.
        Allowing siblings of US citizens to immigrate - with their families - while doing away with per country limitations, the number of legally admitted immigrants will need to change from One Million to several Million per year (and even that number will be too low probably.
        Something not mentioned here is the cruelty of the E-visa - given to people who buy a business or start a business here. An E-visa holder is not allowed to apply for a Green Card. This means if they come to the US with a just-born baby, that child will be kicked out once it tuns 21. (Usually the whole family leaves.)

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        1. Jack H Wolf

          I am very much in favor of decreasing waiting time for family reunion, absolutely. My partners sister has been waiting for 10 years from Bangladesh. I think that is cruel and that is why I would suggest a compromise on securing the border while taking more family reunions. I worked with refugees for many years and the best situations are always when the sponsor is family.

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  7. Tallredrider

    I would be pretty sure that the net financial gain from immigrants is only when measured with legal immigrants. Illegal immigrants rarely pay taxes, and do consume services pretty heftily.

    But the larger point would be that the very same illegal immigrant who was here legally would be a net benefit much quicker than having a subclass of illegals scattered throughout the country for years and years and years. It is a weird combination of both Dems and Republicans being right. We need more legal immigrants and we need fewer illegal immigrants. Unfortunately, the dummies in Washington seem to be better at preventing either side from succeeding than doing what is right. So we have lots of people immigrating illegally and it is really hard to come legally.

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    1. Jack H Wolf

      I agree with you that legal is more beneficial than illegal, even as I support more legal immigration. One unmentioned problem, particularly for the undocumented, is that a lot of people work off the books especially if they dont have an ss card. One thought would be to offer green cards and legal status in exchange for say $3000 per year which could be applied to taxes. $3000 is about what you might pay if you earned a modest income of about 40K. What it would do is make it counterproductive to work off the books since your taxes were pre paid and also be costly for people not working who might be criminal, or for whatever reason, if they are not working, there is less need for them to be here.

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      Azlefty

      Illegal immigrants largely do pay taxes when they work, and they pay social security - by using a false social security number when they are hired. While some people complain that this means they are committing fraud and are thus committing a crime, the only real effect is that they pay into the SS system without any hope of ever receiving benefits. That is, the crime is less than victimless: it actually offsets the social security deficit and thus net benefits the system.

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    3. Scianti7

      Sales & gas taxes are paid by everyone who buys things.

      Both sides are different combinations of wrong & right & only a compromise solution will be helpful, so I agree with you there. I wonder when the U.S. population will demand a political culture change so that we actually work on solutions instead of soap opera drama BS.

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      Kmregan7

      Undocumented immigrants absolutely pay taxes- they buy things, just for one which means sales taxes. This is one of those myths that keeps getting circulated and it’s simply not true.
      https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-immigrants-taxes-rent-vaccine-requirements-983035929946
      But it IS too hard to come legally.

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      1. Tallredrider

        They pay taxes, but not even close to their share. They pay zero federal income tax unless they make enough money that is reported legally. They also pay zero state taxes unless they make enough money that is also reported legally (unless your sales tax is your state tax). Many illegal immigrants work for cash.

        They don't even come close to paying what is costs to educate the children, pay the hospital bills, incarcerate the lawless and pave the roads they drive on. This is true of poor American citizens as well, BTW. Talk about a myth...thinking that poor people of any sort pay their share of taxes.

        I think we should let in poor immigrants, we are the richest country in the world after all. But letting them in illegally compounds their poverty. So again, illegal immigration needs to be much more difficult, and legal immigration easier.

        Back to my complaint about Mr. Lincicome's graph, legal immigrants pay their share in taxes. We seem to be good at letting in high earners from other countries, it is a self selecting group. I think you need an IQ of 130 just to make it through the immigration system. His graph does not include the low wage earning illegal immigrants.

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          Kmregan7

          Except as my link showed- they do indeed pay taxes and social security (which they don’t collect). Poor people also pay taxes- sales tax, gas tax, property taxes, etc.

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          1. Tallredrider

            I think you are missing the point. You could also say I am a professional model. I was once paid to dress up like Lurch from the Addams family. I made $150.

            Do you think they come anywhere close to paying for the public services they provide?

            They are about as much taxpayers as I am a professional model. It is about the magnitude of what is paid. Do you really think that the tax systems in the US would collapse without the taxes paid by the woman who cleans your hotel room?

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    5. Horseracer

      May I point out that American citizens do not pay federal income tax until $24,000, which is about $12/hr. Legals and illegals both pay gasoline taxes which pave our roads, llegals pay sales taxes on everything they buy, just like a citizen, and when they pay rent, the property owner pays real estate taxes to fund schools just like a citizen. So if they pay no SS tax...but get no benefit when they are old and go back to Mexico, how is that a cost to the USA?
      I am just trying to learn the facts of the argument against illegals.

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      1. Tallredrider

        Poor people don't even come close to paying their way in society. And the vast majority of illegal immigrants are poor. So while it is true that poor legal citizens and illegal both pay mostly the same taxes, neither one carries their weight. But being illegal is virtually synonymous with being poor and many legal immigrants are quite well off. The legal immigrant doctor or software engineer is not the same as the illegal Mexican farm worker. Comparing legal vs illegal immigrants is like comparing apples and oranges. And I believe the studies that Mr Lincicome quotes are based on the only people who can be tracked very well, which happen to be legal immigrants. In addition, most poor people today are not poor their entire lives (I used to be poor, and now I am not), but being illegal makes it harder to move up.

        So if Tallredrider ran the USA, it would be very hard to come illegally, and much easier to come legally.

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        1. Jack H Wolf

          With you on more legal than illegal and that's where we need compromise. Give the MAGAs a wall or something effective, but increase family reunion, pass DACA, and increase immigration particularly with jobs in demand - nurses, teachers.
          Now what I disagree with is valuing people if they are poor or not. Yes poor people do likely require more out of the system than they might put in, but we do need nurses aides, custodians, farmworkers, carpenters, food processors, probably more so than advertising executives or social media influencers. A person may earn less but still be contributing to society. And the immigrant flipping your burgers, if not for him, you would be paying a lot more for said burger. My point is that low wage workers are just as necessary and valuable.
          Also what is overlooked is that foreign born works often less proficient in English take lower paying jobs which raises the prospects of native born to get into managerial and professional jobs. They start at the bottom of the ladder and allow those on the bottom to climb to the next rung. But if you want to flip burgers that is a prerogative, but somebody needs to.

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    CynthiaW

    Good article, Mr. Lincicome. I still love you.

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  9. Maloolynation

    Amazing work putting this together Scott. The graph on immigrants and their children as a proportion of new labor singlehandedly changed my policy views on immigration in the last 10 minutes. I salute you.

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  10. Very Old Grumpy Guy

    Sorry Scott - we are full. We do not need any young, smart, hungry, driven "foreigners" coming in and ruining our great country. We would much rather all hold hands as we circle the toilet, then let in some of the wonderful workers looking to run from the trouble spots around the globe.

    I mean how smart could these potential immigrants be? Who wouldn't want to stay in Russia/China and have everything one builds stolen by the state or the kleptocracy? How about Ukraine, with the threat of imminent death? Maybe one prefers a theocracy - at least you know what's what.

    Seriously, how many times can ALL the smart people say the same thing and our government continue to fail to compromise on immigration? Well, at least we got tariffs right!

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    1. Scianti7

      My debate topic in Highschool in 1994 was Immigration. Nothing has substantially changed & the policies we all argued have been implemented & withdrawn as executive actions from administration to administration.

      That was near 30 years ago. I'm disappointed in us.

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      1. Very Old Grumpy Guy

        Not to be a cynic- but I think both parties raise tons of money in this continuing to be a contentious issue.

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