It’s the Hope That Kills You

Republicans are setting themselves up for a crisis of overconfidence.

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Former President Donald Trump briefly dances after speaking at the Turning Point Action conference on July 15, 2023, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The Republican Party is simmering ratatouille of fratricidal resentments. 

When members of the Republican-controlled House are jonesing for a government shutdown to punish their own leadership and the party’s presidential candidates on the debate stage sound like panelists on The Morton Downey Jr. Show, it doesn’t just speak to the ugliness of politics today. It shows just how deep the divisions are in the GOP.

Look at it this way: President Joe Biden is very unpopular among the members of his own party for an incumbent. Just 82 percent of Democrats in a recent poll said they would support him if he was their nominee in a general election. To even be competitive in November 2024, that number would probably need to be above 90 percent. 

But President Donald Trump’s number is only 74 percent among Republicans, 20 points worse than his performance in the 2020 election. If we look at Trump as an incumbent, which is how the race has shaped up, he makes Biden look like Ronald Reagan in 1984.

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  1. Raincheck

    Attempts to save the GOP from Trump have been going as well as that woman’s attempt to save her Apple Watch.

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      Another Aaron

      I’ll bet the woman smells better

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    Probably Wrong

    So much of our political stupidity is downstream of a shared reality problem. I doubt very much that an avid Fox News watcher would estimate the chances of a Biden 2024 victory as being anywhere close to what the polls suggest, and there still exist people on the Left in such a thick cultural bubble that they feel that all right-thinking people agree with them on every issue in politics, which feeds stupid among their coalition - though the number of such people seems to be mercifully shrinking in recent years.

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      Kizedek

      “ there still exist people on the Left in such a thick cultural bubble that they feel that all right-thinking people agree with them on every issue in politics”

      I’d imagine that everyone feels like that to at least some degree. Don’t we all imagine we are “right-thinking”?

      Perhaps one difference is that those on the left imagine that everyone can at least appreciate the rationality of their arguments and positions — recognize that there is a debate to be had. And if one thoroughly rejects them without engaging in a rational debate, then it is because that person is either irrational, completely ideological, or both. Thus, the “bubble” is permeable.

      In contrast, it seems many on the right have a thicker, less permeable, cultural bubble: if one disagrees with the “right-thinkers” on the right, then the right-thinkers on the right view that person as evil. Simple. No discussion necessary.

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        Jeff Younger

        You’ve never attempted to debate any Bernie Bros or Squad fans. The permeability is roughly equivalent to that of Trump’s MAGA faithful. Self-righteousness isn’t unique to either party’s extremist wing.

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          Kizedek

          I'm sure that's the case. I know a certain amount of all this does apply to both sides. I was being partly tongue-in-cheek. And partly reacting to the declaration of a thick cultural bubble on the Left, without any indication that "Probably Wrong" thought there might also be one on the Right. Yes, as you say, it goes both ways.

          Also, as a theologically conservative Christian (but one who has also lived in three countries and always resonated with the American gospel song "This world is not my home" every time I return to the US), my concern –– like David French's –– is mostly for the "thick cultural bubble" around those whom I consider "brothers and sisters". I have seen many (who for their whole lives were critical of the excesses of emotionalism taking over good theology) suddenly completely out of touch with reality; and they are "content" with it, as long as they can label any pushback the result of "evil" deception or manipulation, and dismiss it accordingly. I admit, I hold them to a far higher standard than Bernie Bros or Squad fans. Take it as a compliment. (Although, I have to say, I find AOC more competent than an MTG or Boebert; and as such, I think her opponents and detractors will have to do better than merely dismiss her –– or what is commonly smeared as "socialism" –– as evil.)

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      2. Rune485

        “Perhaps one difference is that those on the left imagine that everyone can at least appreciate the rationality of their arguments and positions…”

        #REIMAGINE

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  3. Russell J

    Not thinking it is likely but if a few of the candidates formed a team to coordinate messages and then fall behind a single person as voting begins, I wonder if it could boost similarly to Biden ‘20. Seems like there should be more discussion of the idea. Anything that might result in stopping fights over curtains if nothing else.

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  4. Neelthakrebew

    The Republican Party is a

    "simmering ratatouille of fratricidal resentments"

    with an emphasis on the rats.

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  5. Goatprairie

    The ignoramus, populist tail is wagging the conservative GOP dog. Until that reverses (the disappearance of Agent Orange), the party will be in the political and electoral wilderness.

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      Jeff Younger

      It never ceases to amaze me how Trump, a man who joined the GOP out of convenience, has convinced his minions - many of them lifelong Republicans - that anyone in the party who disagrees with Trump is a RINO. The sooner Fat Donnie One Term exits this mortal coil the better.

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      1. Goatprairie

        Trump latched onto the illegal immigration issue before any other candidate. If he had focused on any other issue, he would have gone nowhere. He never lost that early one third of the Republican voter base.
        The Trump base is basically the ignoramus base that thinks there are easy solutions to the nation's problems and all you have to do is be angry all the time. Trump is basically an ignoramus himself.

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    Julie from Texas

    So many Trump supporters behave exactly like cult members, ignoring truth and reason, unwilling to entertain any notion that didn't come from their revered leader, and ready to fight or even die for their foolish cause. I've shaken my head at this state of affairs so many times in the last 8 years that I'm surprised it hasn't fallen off my neck.

    What will make this horrible man go away? Someone? Anyone? We need an answer!

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    1. Brandon Hartley

      Sadly, I doubt even a resounding loss would do it. It's not like 2018, 2020, or 2020 got that message through. I fear the only hope at this point is time and human longevity (aka, the grim reaper is the party's only hope left).

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    2. Mirabelle

      A resounding loss in the general would do it.

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      1. The Widow’s Son

        Not so sure, Mirabelle. He would just replay 2020 and his sycophantic lapdogs would fight his fight. Watch, it will be Trump 2028.

        😔

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          Jeff Younger

          I’m afraid so. He will repeat the “stolen election” nonsense, and his minions will buy it. The only mitigating factor might be the age and health of many of the die hard MAGA, who may well hear Trump to the funeral home. But yes, I believe Trump will run again in 2028, and he could once again get the nomination or go the third party route. His ego will never acknowledge defeat, and if it came in the primaries, he’d still claim it was stolen or every else is a RINO.

          I just want him to wake up dead. The sooner the better. I’ll deal with whatever Karma I’m inviting. The man is a menace to the GOP, the country, & the planet.

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    Re "'Going Off Like Fireworks,' a lead track from [the Consumer Product Safety Commission's] teen-oriented album about household and road safety":

    Only the "lead track"? Of an entire album of teen-oriented music from a quasi-independent federal agency funded by taxpayer dollars?

    Well that's a relief! I'd hate to think that from the $192.8M federal dollars we're spending on the CPSC in FY2023, the Commission might only have funded a single! Link: https://www.usaspending.gov/agency/consumer-product-safety-commission?fy=2023

    Every product in my house is surely safer as a result of this album. I do wonder if one of the tracks is devoted to my gas water heater and clothes dryer. Nothing says "Young Adult Contemporary Music" like a gas water heater.

    But I'm not quite curious enough to download the album, the cover art of which features unicorns discussing a cat with a cellphone, a fox wearing a bicycle helmet, a dog balancing some sort of eye-of-Sauron motorcycle helmet on its back (how can this not be banned?), and a bird with a smoke detector — all in orbit. It's good to know from the cover that this is only "Volume 1," there presumably being other young adult consumer products whose safety can only be assured via musical tribute. Link: https://www.cpsc.gov/Were-Safety-Now-Havent-We

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    1. P Satter

      "Teen-oriented album about household and road safety." I listened to a couple of the tracks, ranging from the cheesy to slightly disturbing, on YouTube. Since pop music isn't usually used for warning, it was unclear on some of them if they were promoting or prohibiting the dangerous activities. The comments are sadly disabled.
      I would actually watch a Senate hearing on this. The first question for those responsible should be: "Were any of you actual teenagers?"

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      1. Robert Weber

        It's only 6 songs, so it's technically an EP...

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        Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

        https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/how-do-you-do-fellow-kids

        See also: Katy Perry, "Fireworks." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJuMBdaqIw Not a public safety video. Also not about fireworks.

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          Cthocas

          Baby, you're a firework.

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            CynthiaW

            Don't you know that you are a shooting star? Of course, that's not a consumer product.

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    Frank Lee

    Trump it is. Not because Trump is a perfect candidate, but because the alternative, the Democrats or their RINO surrogates, are proven the existential threat to the nation and world. We should have swept up and discarded these disgusting Ivy League managerial class sub-humans after the 2008 financial collapse. But we elected a cool puppet of theirs. 2016 we almost got the job done, but they unleashed everything they had and replaced him with another managerial class puppet. Maybe Vivek and maybe to a lesser degree DeSantis, but there is nobody else in the Republican Party that isn't corrupted by billionaire boys club Wall Street money... and they are pursuing their own selfish money interests at the expense of the republic.

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      Kizedek

      “ because the alternative, the Democrats or their RINO surrogates, are proven the existential threat to the nation and world.”

      Sounds like proven paranoid delusions.

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    2. Gerald Cuesta

      Frankie: When creeps who consider themselves patriots use Nazi terminology to describe fellow citizens who don’t kow tow to the creeps bottom shelf beliefs.

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        Frank Lee

        Gerrie: https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01/16/biden-bombs-when-comparing-trump-to-nazi-official/

        https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/25/biden-trump-philosophy-semi-fascism-00053831

        Seems like maybe you run with the creeps?

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    3. Hikingguy

      Sadly, Frank is listening to the little birdies chirping in his head.

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    4. BadgerBill

      Excellent trolling! Wait, what? You were serious? Oh dear. Well. First of all, drink! Well done, RINO! Very original. Second, you “existential” people are funny. Do you know what the word means? What, the “world” will cease to exist? How? Klingons blow it up? Hit by rogue black hole? Do tell.

      Oh brother. I’m going back to troll.

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        Frank Lee

        Psychologists will be studying Trump Derangement Syndrome for years. Do you live next to Rob Reiner?

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        Frank Lee

        LOL. "Trump makes me believe" No Pat, the media and your own uncontrolled emotions make you "believe". I have no belief when it comes to political candidates. It is only cool logic, wisdom and calculation. I don't hate in politics unlike you. Because I know that allowing that darkness in will destroy reason and cause destructive choice tendencies.

        The great financial collapse of 2008 that was caused by the establishment and then they bailed themselves out while leaving a trail of economic destruction for everyone else except the top 10% of which I am a member, and I assume you are one too... is the opponent to Trump and his followers. His followers are not into Trump's personality... they are into his message and platform against the establishment that is taking the mess of 2008 to another plateau of destruction. If you don't understand that, you don't really understand anything about the current reality of our political situation.

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        1. Jason Thomas

          You don't hate?

          You called a group of people "sub-human".

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            Frank Lee

            One of the myths of the left, the tribe of people I find to be the most lacking in emotional intelligence, that they can attribute vile emotive intent from the use of words. It is a weird tendency from my perspective.

            I don't hate in politics. I am easily irritated with blatant ignorance and fantasy being pushed as reality. The label of "sub-human" means not yet human by a definition of what it means today to be a good human. I view vulnerable narcissists, of which the political left is mostly populated with, as being sub-human as the tendencies for that malady are generally things are childish and good humans develop to overcome. A sub-human needs cognitive behavior therapy, but it does not mean I hate them. On the contrary, I care about them and want to see them improve.

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        2. Mirabelle

          You know that whole "people crushed by 2008" thing applies to '16, but not '24, right? It was great for Bernie Sanders. He lived off that (politically) for quite awhile. And the nameless, faceless "establishment" didn't cause the crash. At the very bottom, past financial practices that were questionable, were people offered mortgages for houses they normally couldn't afford. With all of the funny financing, these people could finally afford a home. A hard to resist offer.

          A good troll, I admire. You have tenacious comebacks, a sign of a good troll. But an ignorant troll who doesn't understand their subject well enough to spin it is just sad. You've proven to be sad.

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            Frank Lee

            LOL. You don't seem to have enough knowledge of the situation to get involved. It might be over your pay grade.

            The 2008 financial crisis was perpetrated by the elite Ivy League managerial class that infests Wall Street, the C-Suite of banks and Government. Those in government set the stage with CRA, Freddie Fanny, below market rates, and the stupid "Ownership Society" idea that poor people needed to own real estate so they could be made un-poor.

            These are all the same "establishment" people that allowed China into the WTO. That signed NAFTA. That have failed to prevent the theft of American IP, the export of working class economic opportunity and the import of other county's poverty by the multi-millions.

            And now they pushing the cult of climate crisis... attempting to manipulate the energy markets so they can place pre-bets on the forced economic changes. They own the media, so they just keep propagandizing the memes so the Godless left faithful and youth adopt the cult beliefs.

            The things that led to the 2008 financial collapse are not gone... they are worse. Too big to fail? The banks have consolidated more. Wall Street is bigger. The economy is another house of cards... again. And if it crashes again, if in charge, they will just bail themselves out again... and stick the bill with the American tax payers of future generations.

            There is no trolling here. Only ignorance that claims trolling.

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        LBernard

        I'm more interested in how he believes that Trump isn't doing exactly that, that Trump is somehow not "pursuing [his] own selfish money interests at the expense of the republic."

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          Frank Lee

          Trump wanting to be President to pursue his own money interests when his own money interest suffered greatly having been elected?

          There is a YUGE gap in critical thinking evident in this meme that Trump is only seeking the White House job (a very crappy place to live and work if you are already a billionaire) to enrich himself. It is so absurd that those that clutch this meme must not have the self-awareness to see how damn stupid it makes them seem.

          I get why ya'll go there. Because you have been programed by your media feeds inflaming your hypertensive emotions to see Trump as the devil, and thus you cannot accept that he would be interested in the job for the reasons he consistently states... for the good of the country and in support of the American middle class. You absolutely have to clutch the meme that he is in it for selfish reasons otherwise you have too much egg on your face explaining your hate for the man.

          Yes, Trump is a narcissist... as is every damn candidate that wants to be President and most of Congress... and most of the people that populate this great country.

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          1. Iblamethedrugs

            Are you guys going to commit ritual suicide when he dies? I bet you'd fight to be first in line if Trump bent over and decided to start a human centipede.

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            LBernard

            Thank you for answering my question, I understand your position better now.

            Can you elaborate on how Trump's money interests have suffered while in the White House?

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  9. Kittyecws

    I’ll respond to your comment about Biden needing 90% of Democrats to vote for him. I disagree. He will also get some Independents and even siphon off some Republican votes. Neither Trump (nor DeSantis) or Biden are the best possible candidates but Biden is the least dangerous. Republicans in my family are not ideologues so they can easily vote for a Democrat. For that matter, anyone who is a Republican ideologue might easily see that neither of their top candidates are actually Republican ideologues. They are just ideologues.

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