Making China Pay if It Attacks Taiwan

Lawmakers are laying the groundwork for economic sanctions on China if it invades Taiwan.

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Members of Taiwan's armed forces during drills to show combat readiness. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)

How far are the United States and its allies willing to go to deter China from attacking Taiwan and sparking war?

U.S. lawmakers and security experts are raising the specter of serious sanctions against China if it tries to seize the self-governing, democratic island of 23 million people. But economic reprisals would take significant preparation and coordination to pull off, and time may be limited. War with China over Taiwan could come in the next two years, a U.S. general and a top Republican lawmaker have said in recent days.

Rep. Michael McCaul, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Sunday on Fox News that the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan are “very high.” He believes Gen. Mike Minihan, head of the U.S. Air Mobility Command, was correct in writing in a new memo that war over Taiwan will happen in 2025—sooner than other estimates. 

McCaul’s comments underscore how alarm is growing on Capitol Hill. 

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  1. R. James

    Considering Biden can't even defeat the CCP's balloon, you would be forgiven for doubting his resolve regarding Taiwan.

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  2. DTruitt

    Conquering another country is far more difficult than most people imagine - just ask Russia. Conquering another nation via amphibious invasion is far more difficult than any land invasion.

    That is not to say that the PRC will never attempt to militarily conquer the Republic of China - that is their name, not “Taiwan” - but such an invasion is far more likely to fail than to succeed, for a host of very practical reasons. It is counterproductive to run around with your hair on fire shouting “War! War!”.

    What is useful is to keep doing what we are doing now. Build up the military strength of both the ROCs and the USA … no more dissipating American military and diplomatic strength trying to police the Arab world … and continue to encourage our allies in both the western Pacific and NATO to strengthen their military and diplomatic and economic capabilities at the expense of the PRC.

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    Lawrence D'anna

    Economic sanctions?

    The only way to deter China is to convince them their landing craft will never make it to the beaches.

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  4. Gplamb

    If China invades (as Xi tells us he will), US investments in China will get wiped out. As such how can professional investors of other people's money, and trustees of pension funds take this kind of risk without them becoming liable - beach of fiduciary duties if this happens? It would be prudent for all to be hitting the China exit doors now.

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  5. Gplamb

    What will the response of the average US consumer be? Total Boycott of Chinese-made goods? If so, that will happen much faster than the government response.

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    Ben Connelly

    Deterrence is the best path to peace. If we want to avoid war, we should station a fleet on Taiwan and maybe some nukes. We should prepare to fight a brutal war, because the only way China will blink on Taiwan is if they know we’re serious. Even then, they could do it.

    If they invade Taiwan we should go to war. Anything less is a disgrace. Sanctions are too little too late.

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    1. Gplamb

      one weak US PResident away from invasion.

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  7. James Morphew

    Economic sanctions discussions should take a back seat to military preparedness. If China invades Taiwan, our military decisions become paramount; sanctions can be chosen and enacted at that time, or after.

    We might discuss immediate sanctions as a response to China's unfair and illegal trade practices as a signal that we are finally getting serious.

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    1. Raymondbrosterhous

      Absolutely. But we also need to organize our regional allies (South Korea, Japan, Australia) and rather than sanctions, make it crystal clear to Xi what the consequences of his invasion attempt will be.

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  8. Rdtomasello51

    Agree with so many commentershere. Sanctions after China invades Taiwan is almost destined to be complicated and relatively ineffective. Considering sanctions against Russia had at least European and American support, but even the thousands of sanctions we have thrown at Russia have not had the profound effect of destabilizing the Russian economy in the short term. Possibly in the long run . It has not deterred Putin as he has sought out with some success arrangements with the countries that will deal with him economically and in some cases militarily
    China seems a whole bigger dilemma with its complicated economic relationships and also a leader, like Putin who is not easily deterred. I don't if reprisals after the fact would be that beneficial. Deterrence before an attack on Taiwan seems the only way out
    I just wish these committees would have a longer range view that would prevent an attack or blockade first. It is an extremely problematic issue but one I hope our Congress puts some real effort in finding at least possible scenarios that could work. Thank you Haley for the comprehensive report on this subject.

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  9. Crs24

    Excuse me, but quoting Marco Rubio? He is a lightweight regarding international issues.

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      JohnM.

      Marco Rubio is the Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence and a senior member of the Committee on Foreign Relations.

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      1. Crs24

        And...? Look at Greene, Bobert and Santos. They're on "committees" too.

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          JohnM.

          Keep digging.

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  10. Raymondbrosterhous

    Sanctions against China . . . AFTER they have invaded Taiwan? First of all, that will mean that any real and genuine deterrence had completely failed. Second of all, economic sanctions are not simply proving to be the panacea that the liberal democracies think they are.

    Real deterrence means making it clear -- through the commitment to the region of American men and material, through the organization of regional allies, and providing a clear indication of the deleterious consequences that will follow Chinese aggression. Had that course of action been undertaken a year ago vis a vis Ukraine, we might have called Putin's bluff. But our policies at the time were anything but deterring.

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      DougAz

      I agree with you on Taiwan. There is a logical difference between the China-Taiwan concern, and the Ukraine-Russia concern.

      There is water between Taiwan and China. Taiwan is kind of a big battlecruiser, Aegis Radar, antiacraft, aircraft carrier all in one. An amphibious or airborn assualt, history teaches, would be more risky by geographical disadvantages to China.

      Ukraine of course has a common Land Border with Russia. And Ukraine is not an island. It connects to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia - and Western Europe is a tank ride so to say.

      I think it is very different. Biden and Ukraine need Europe's support and alignment. Taiwan and the US need really don't need any other countries support. Arguably Japan, who would be very threatened by a Taiwan attack by China.

      My 2 cents ---

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      1. Tbeachglobal

        With regard to your battlecruiser analogy, having lived in Taiwan for 20 years, my dream is that the whole island would be able to hoist anchor and set sail southward to become Australia's newest neighbor. Well, of course, that's only a dream. The reality is that Taiwan is an island nation that is about 200 km at its widest point and about 400 km long, and 70% mountains. The majority of the population lives in the plains along its west coast with the main highway and rail line running North to South. Both the highway and the rail line include many bridges along the way. China doesn't need to actually invade to cause havoc. Bombing the highway and rail line bridges alone would severely disrupt the movement of civilians, supplies, and essential personnel - not to mention catastrophic results of China bombing the three largest cities (Taipei, Taichung, and Kaoshiung) plus Hsinchu (Taiwan's "Silicon Valley"). With these facts in mind, I agree with a previous comment, that, in the short run at least, the best strategy is preventing a Chinese attack - perhaps by keeping a battleship group in the South China Sea along with support from regional allies.
        However, for future reference, we need to face the root cause of this predicament. The U.S. and the alliance of Western Corporations (Walmart, Dollar Tree, HP, Dell, Tesla, and the pharmaceutical industry, etc.) with the Chinese Communist Party made Chinese companies very rich. Bottom line: this unholy alliance was a breach of national and international security in-the-making. Not only did the governments of the U.S. and other Western government not step and put a stop to it, they actively supported it! Why? Because big business has unlimited influence over our governments, including in the U.S., through campaign contribution and other forms of influence peddling. In the process, American-based manufacturing and American factory workers lost big. American consumers also lost as we are now dependent on China for everything from machinery parts to essential pharmaceuticals.
        In the meantime, the Chinese Communist Party has raked in billions in tax revenues from their profitable companies. And, as if no Western economist could not have predicted what would happen, it has used its tax revenues to build up its military! In order to address the true root of this problem, all Western countries need to rein in corporations’ influence on political and economic policy. Their limitless greed for short-term gain, and their political influence, put the West and the world at risk for political and economic instability and war.

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          DougAz

          I completely agree! I've been to Taiwan near a dozen times. What America, Clinton and Bush did to allow any and everything to be offshored to China was a National Security disgrace.

          I've called Sam Waltons previously pro America business, .... for 25 years

          China-Mart

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      MatthewRobin

      You perfectly described the difference between deterrence by punishment vs deterrence by denial.

      As Ukraine shows, using economic sanctions to punish will not deter a man on a mission. We have to use denial, which entails, "committing to the region of American men and material."

      We just had some great news on that front Def Sec Austin secured more basing rights in the Philippines that allows us to pre-position material.

      https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-01-31/austins-manila-visit-to-bring-deal-on-expanded-base-access-philippines-official

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