Previewing the First Republican Primary Debate of the Cycle

Happy Tuesday! After 25 iconic years in the role, Charles Martinet has decided to step down as the voice of Mario, Nintendo announced Monday. Saying “it’s-a-me” and “mamma mia” into a microphone is a pretty cool job, sure, but is it as cool as editing the Morning Dispatch? 

(If you’re wondering why we’re looking for a new TMD editor, check out this note Steve sent out yesterday.)

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• President Joe Biden visited Maui, Hawaii, on Monday to survey the damage on the island following the deadliest wildfires in recent American history. About 850 people were still missing as of Monday morning according to Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen, and just 35 of the 115 people confirmed dead have been identified. Also yesterday, Biden appointed Bob Fenton, a regional Federal Emergency Management Agency leader, to oversee the federal government’s long-term recovery efforts on the island.
• Former President Donald Trump’s legal team met with Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis on Monday and negotiated a $200,000 bond for Trump’s release following his arrest on racketeering charges. The former president said yesterday that he’ll surrender to Fulton County authorities on Thursday, marking his fourth arraignment in as many months. The conditions of Trump’s release on bond reportedly bar him from intimidating witnesses or co-defendants in the case, including with “posts on social media or reposts of posts” by others.
• Lawmakers in the House Freedom Caucus announced Monday they would oppose a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown unless House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met the group’s various demands. The hardline lawmakers said they would only pass the stop-gap resolution to fund the government at current levels if the measure included the immigration bill passed on party lines earlier this year, addresses “the unprecedented weaponization of the Justice Department,” and ends what they view as “woke” Defense Department policies. The House still has to pass 11 of 12 funding bills before October to avoid a shutdown.
• The Food and Drug Administration announced Monday it had approved Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, the first of its kind to be administered to pregnant women and offer protection to newborn babies for their first six months of life. RSV results in tens of thousands of hospitalizations every year, and Pfizer’s shot—called Abrysvo—joins a drug from Sanofi, approved last month, that gives infants antibodies to neutralize the virus.
• China’s Ministry of State Security announced Monday it is investigating a 39-year-old Chinese national for allegedly spying on behalf of the CIA. The news comes just days after the same authority arrested another Chinese national for alleged espionage—and weeks after the Justice Department charged two U.S. Navy sailors in California—one of whom was born in China—with spying for Beijing.
• The State Department on Monday warned Americans not to travel to Belarus, adding that any U.S. citizens currently in the eastern European country should depart immediately after the Lithuanian government closed two of the remaining waypoints along its shared border with Belarus. “The Polish, Lithuanian, and Latvian governments have stated that further closures of border crossings with Belarus are possible,” the bulletin from the U.S. Embassy in Minsk reads.

The Tortoises and the Hair

In the classic childhood ode to hard work and consistency, a hare and a tortoise challenge one another to a race. The hare immediately darts ahead, but, feeling secure in his lead, decides before he reaches the finish line to take a little nap. Meanwhile, the tortoise diligently plods along and, while the hare is still snoozing, wins the race.

In the real world, sometimes the hare is so fast or so far ahead that he can afford to take a breather. But in light of former President Donald Trump’s decision to skip this week’s GOP presidential debate—and perhaps all of the primary debates—we bet a lot of Republican candidates are waking up this morning and seeing a tortoise in the mirror. 

Skipping the debate would demonstrate Trump’s “complete lack of respect for Republican voters,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie argued earlier this month. “He thinks, because he won the nomination twice, that it’s his. And he thinks that these numbers actually mean they approve of what he did, when, in essence, it’s just that he’s the best-known person in the race.”

Wednesday night’s GOP primary debate in Milwaukee is the first real test of the candidates’ mettle, and, if history is any guide, it could prove a make-or-break moment for several on the stage. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—whose campaign has been flailing for months—needs to stop the bleeding and start charting a comeback. Christie, the former governor, needs a courtroom in which to prosecute his case against Trump. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina needs a moment that breaks through the noise and elevates his single-digit candidacy. But without Donald Trump on the stage with them, the candidates’ task of eating into his lead will become considerably harder. Will they go after the former president in absentia, or use the Trump-free moment to make their own case?

In an effort to prevent a repeat of 2016—when 17 candidates were split into a primetime and “kids table” debate—the Republican National Committee set strict polling and fundraising thresholds to limit the number of people on stage. According to the guidelines the RNC published in June, candidates would need to collect donations from 40,000 individual donors, a figure which had to include 200 contributors in each of at least 20 states. They also had to register at least 1 percent in three qualifying national polls or in two national polls and two surveys of early voting states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. The final hurdle for qualifying candidates was ostensibly the easiest: signing a loyalty pledge—a promise to throw their support behind the eventual nominee—no matter who it is.

The RNC announced late last night that eight candidates would take the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday: DeSantis, Scott, Christie, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. 

That’s three short of the number who thought they’d be on the stage: Businessman Perry Johnson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and failed California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder all claimed they’d qualified, only to be left off the RNC’s final guest list. Johnson went so far as to tweet pictures of himself signing a GOP loyalty pledge. “The debate process has been corrupted, plain and simple,” he tweeted after the RNC’s announcement. “Our campaign hit every metric put forward by the RNC and we have qualified for the debate. We’ll be in Milwaukee Wednesday and will have more to say tomorrow.”

But there will be another, particularly notable absence: the frontrunner, who is quadrupling his closest competitor in national polling. After months of will-he-won’t-he speculation, the former president confirmed on Sunday he’d be skipping this debate—and perhaps future ones. “New CBS POLL, just out, has me leading the field by ‘legendary’ numbers,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had, with Energy Independence, Strong Borders & Military, Biggest EVER Tax & Regulation Cuts, No Inflation, Strongest Economy in History, & much more. I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!” 

Instead, the former president will reportedly take a page out of DeSantis’ book and make his triumphant return to X—the platform formerly known as Twitter—for a pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, which NBC reported Monday has already been filmed.

The counterprogramming will likely divert some eyeballs away from the RNC-sponsored debate, but it’s better viewed as a giant middle finger to Fox News, which is hosting the event. Carlson was fired from the network in April, and Trump has repeatedly voiced frustrations about the network’s willingness to platform his Republican detractors and, more recently, selecting the  “absolutely worst pictures” of him, especially the “big ‘orange’ one with [his] chin pulled way back.” Fox executives have ramped up their efforts to woo the former president in recent weeks, with CEO Suzanne Scott and Fox News President Jay Wallace making the pilgrimage to Trump’s Bedminster Golf Club. Bret Baier, one of the debate’s moderators, made a similar case over the phone. But Trump wouldn’t budge, leading Fox to strike back last night by barring the former president’s surrogates from the post-debate “spin room.”

Trump’s move—while arguably both legally and politically prudent—drew fire from some unexpected sources. Kayleigh McEnany, Trump’s former press secretary, said his decision was a “huge political miscalculation” that gives “others the opportunity to shine” and “two hours to throw lobs at [him].” Fox and Friends’ Steve Doocy said Trump’s absence helps President Joe Biden by giving him an excuse to skip a general election debate, and in the same CBS poll Trump cited as rationale for passing on the debate, 73 percent of GOP voters said he should participate.

With Trump playing hooky, all eyes will likely be on DeSantis, who—perhaps more than any other candidate—needs a standout performance to convince voters that reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. “At a minimum, he has to really shine on stage to have a chance of flipping the narrative of his campaign,” says Rob Stutzman, a California-based GOP strategist. To do that, Stutzman says, he’ll need to continue his pivot away from all-woke all the time and try to appeal to new elements of the Republican electorate. Plus, Stutzman adds, “it would help him to be likable.”

Though he’ll still be treated as the runner-up on the stage tomorrow, DeSantis’ poll numbers have tanked since June, falling from his post-announcement high of about 24 percent down to 15 percent nationally. He’s also slipped in New Hampshire, dropping into fourth place behind Trump, Christie, and Ramaswamy in an Echelon Insights poll released Monday. A Des Moines Register poll from pollster Ann Selzer published Sunday showed DeSantis holding second place in Iowa with 19 percent support—though Trump is still doubling that figure. 

With his campaign struggling, DeSantis’ plans for this week’s debate have become something of a meta story in recent days. Barred from directly coordinating with the campaign but eager to share its own internal polling and analysis, Never Back Down—the DeSantis-affiliated super PAC—posted hundreds of pages of debate advice online last week, where everyone, including the New York Times, could see it. Among the pointers listed: “1. Attack Joe Biden and the media 3-5 times. 2. State [Governor Ron Desantis’] positive vision 2-3 times. 3. Hammer Vivek Ramaswamy in a response. 4. Defend Donald Trump in absentia in response to a Chris Christie attack.” It’s not clear if DeSantis—who has been working with GOP debate guru Brett O’Donnell— will take the coaching. “The memo is not mine,” he told reporters Saturday. “I haven’t read it. It’s just something we have put off to the side.” 

Whether the memo offered good advice—or was a headfake to manipulate voters’ expectations ahead of the debate—it did point out something almost undeniably true: Christie is going to take aim at Trump, even if the former president is watching from his couch. During a surprise trip to Ukraine earlier this month, Christie suggested it didn’t matter whether Trump was there to receive his jibes. “It doesn’t change my perspective or my tactical approach,” the former New Jersey governor said. “Because if he’s not there, it just means two things. One, he’s afraid to be on the same debate stage and defend his record. And two, you know, this is a guy who, by not showing up, just gives me more time. So it’s okay. Either way, I win.” Though he’s vowed never to support the former president again, Christie has said he’ll sign the loyalty oath—but will take it “as seriously as Donald Trump took it in ‘16.”

Christie—a former U.S. prosecutor and able debater who famously kneecapped Sen. Marco Rubio in a 2016 primary debate—will also likely benefit from widespread media attention for knocking Trump over his four indictments. “He’ll stand out,” Stutzman predicts. “A lot of the coverage after the debate, I’m sure, will be a ton of Chris Christie soundbites because he’s going to give the media—especially the cable media—what they want, which is red meat, anti-Trump soundbites.” Hutchinson, a consistent Trump critic, will likely also take some shots at the former president. 

With DeSantis in a precarious position—and Christie and Hutchinson too deeply anti-Trump to have broad appeal in a GOP primary electorate still largely loyal to 45th president—the debate could present an opportunity for Haley, Scott, or Pence to break through.

Pence will likely try to carve out a path somewhere between condemnation and absolution for his former boss. In an interview with ABC’s Jonathan Karl Sunday, he declined to say whether a conviction for Trump in any of the pending cases should bar him from holding office. “I think that needs to be left to the American people,” he said. 

The two South Carolinians will each stand out—Haley for being the only woman on the stage, Scott, the only black man. Haley will likely put her foreign policy bona fides front-and-center, already signaling she’ll hit Ramaswamy on his isolationist policy views, including decreasing aid to Israel and Ukraine. “This is part of a pattern with Vivek—his foreign policies have a common theme: they make America less safe,” she tweeted about his Israel stance. 

Scott, the campaign’s “happy warrior,” will probably use his time to emphasize his biography. “The truth of my life disproves the lies of the radical left,” Scott said over the weekend at The Gathering, a conservative political event in Atlanta, hosted by Erick Erickson. “I am living proof that the American dream is alive and it is well and that no matter where you start in this country, if you work hard, have strong grit, all things are possible.” 

Scott and Haley have walked a fine line on Trump during the campaign—both previously supporters of the president, they’ve worked to avoid criticizing him even after four indictments, instead turning their sights on Biden’s Justice Department. That’s something likely to continue during the debate, Stutzman predicts, perhaps to their detriment. “At some point [voters] need to see from Scott and Haley that they’re willing to articulate that they’re better for the job than Trump, and why.”

Worth Your Time

• If it seems like school starts earlier every year, that’s especially true in Richmond, Virginia, where two elementary schools added 20 days to this school year in a pilot program to counter pandemic-era learning loss. “The scene outside Fairfield Court Elementary School in Richmond, Virginia, at 7:40 last Thursday morning was so festive that one might have assumed it was the first day of school,” Alec MacGillis reports in a piece for ProPublica. “But in fact, the first day of school was receding in the distance: Fairfield Court was one of two local schools that had started the year on July 24. The results of the 200-day academic years at Fairfield and Cardinal elementary schools will help determine whether Richmond adopts a similar approach at more schools across the 22,000-student district. The pilot is being watched more widely too, as one of the highest-profile examples nationwide of schools taking aggressive action to address the unprecedented declines in student achievement since the pandemic’s onset.” Some were skeptical that kids would show up in the middle of summer. “The turnout lagged initially, with about 80 percent attendance in the first week, below Fairfield Court’s average rate of 91 percent last year,” but picked up to 87 percent last week. “The other school in the pilot project, Cardinal Elementary, which is three times larger than Fairfield Court and has a heavily Latino population, had strong attendance from the very start, 95 percent in the first week of the pilot, according to district data.”

Presented Without Comment

Vivek Ramaswamy, in The Atlantic: “I think it is legitimate to say how many police, how many federal agents, were on the planes that hit the Twin Towers. Maybe the answer is zero. It probably is zero for all I know, right? I have no reason to think it was anything other than zero. But if we’re doing a comprehensive assessment of what happened on 9/11, we have a 9/11 commission, absolutely that should be an answer the public knows the answer to.”

(Ramaswamy later claimed he was misquoted; The Atlantic says it has a recording of his remarks.)

Toeing the Company Line

• If you want to hang out with Steve, Drucker, and Audrey tonight, act quickly—we are just a few spots from capacity, so consider this your last chance to register for the Dispatch meetup in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin. We’ll provide appetizers and cover beer and wine for a good chunk of the gathering.
• After some indictment-driven delays, the Dispatch Book Club (🔒) is wrapping up its summer thriller series with James Swanson’s Manhunt: The 12-day Hunt for Lincoln’s Killer.
• In the newsletters: Audrey and David focus on Ron DeSantis’ debate strategy, while Nick argues (🔒) the Florida governor’s “listless vessels” comment is not likely a harbinger of more truth-telling about the state of the GOP.
• On the podcasts: Grayson is joined on The Dispatch Podcast by Darrell M. West to discuss the role AI is likely to play in our politics, and Sarah and David debate former circuit judge Michael McConnell on the question of whether Trump can be disqualified from holding public office on Advisory Opinions.
• On the site today: Chris weighs in on the Nevada Republican Party’s decision to scramble the GOP primary calendar and John Gustavsson looks at what a second Trump term could mean for NATO.

Let Us Know

Are you planning to tune into the GOP primary debate on Wednesday? Do you think it’s possible for any candidates to change the trajectory of the race without Trump on the stage?